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Hyperloop: Pipes of Fancy

economist.com

251–260 of 322 posts

Re: Hyperloop: Pipes of Fancy

#251
post #234

The vac-train concept is from 1799. Maglev tech is decades in production. I remember a Discovery Channel show 20 years ago about trains traveling 5000mph through tunnels at the bottom of the ocean to cross continents in an hour. Hyperloop is fantastical renaming of old tech without solving any of the fundamental problems of economy, geography, energy and politics. We're capable of building incredible projects if only…

Please remind me again how a company with a market share of 0.6% [1] is changing global transportation? It's fascinating to me how people seem to vastly underestimate the actual volume of the global car market while overestimating the impact of unicorns. In order to even make a dent in the global market, getting into the double digits would be required. Even in the market "dominated" by Tesla (e.g. plug-in EVs), thei…

Tesla already changed global transportation, by dragging auto manufacturers kicking and screaming to make real investments in electric transportation. They've averaged a CAGR of 40% or so for the fast decade and have no intentions of slowing down.

Obviously they won't get 100% of the global auto market, but they're much more influential and dangerous than you'd be led to believe just by looking at their market share.

By the way, SpaceX performed 65% of all the orbital space launches that happened in 2018. Worldwide. Competitors mainly being the ULA and the space programs of sovereign state actors.

Re: Hyperloop: Pipes of Fancy

#252
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With any new technology, the likelihood of failure is high but the expected value is positive. As Nat Friedman (CEO of GitHub) said: "Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money."

> the likelihood of failure is high but the expected value is positive Except when the new technology was proposed and marketed by a loony, of course.

Yes, all those poor Tesla IPO investors who got misled by a loony are lining up for shareholder lawsuits and yelling for prosecution, due to the obviously financially irresponsible management of their investment.

(Refresh my memory here - would an 88X return on investment after IPO be classified as high returns on a high-risk investment?)

Re: Hyperloop: Pipes of Fancy

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire point of the Hyperloop is to get around right of way and politics. That is it's design. That is exactly what Elon is doing. You might argue it can't do what it's setting out to achieve, but this has never been a technological solution. He's designed a technology to fit with current societal processes rather than the old, get society to accept a technology.

But right of way extends underground in the US - literally "all the way to hell"? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuius_est_solum,_eius_est_usqu... How is this something that can be solved with the yet to be invented new TBM?

Watch The Hummingbird Project (2018) it's an interesting little movie.

From your link -

"The "ad infernum" theory positing property ownership "to the center of the Earth" has also been eroded. A review of modern American jurisprudence demonstrates that the theory is more poetic hyperbole than binding law, and that broadly speaking, the deeper the disputed region, the less likely courts are to recognize that the surface owner holds subsurface title. [21] Appraisal studies of subsurface projects such as subways, deep storm drainage tunnels, and particle colliders consistently conclude that such projects, built well below the area that the vast majority of surface property owners ever put to use, do not deprive the surface owners of any value."

Re: Hyperloop: Pipes of Fancy

#254
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please remind me again how a company with a market share of 0.6% [1] is changing global transportation? It's fascinating to me how people seem to vastly underestimate the actual volume of the global car market while overestimating the impact of unicorns. In order to even make a dent in the global market, getting into the double digits would be required. Even in the market "dominated" by Tesla (e.g. plug-in EVs), thei…

Call me pro tesla if you will but I think you're underestimating the influence Tesla has had and is having on the whole planet. Few years ago they were a ridicule curiosity. Now electric vehicles are everywhere, trucks are on the way.

It's highly debatable whether this was due to Tesla or actual legislation, though.

CO² fleet restriction forced the hand of automakers, not 3% EV market share.

A substantial portion of Tesla's operational income comes from CO² certificates from automakers that don't meet the CO² restrictions, by the way [1]. Also something that people tend to overlook.

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/8/18300393/tesla-fiat-chrysl...

Re: Hyperloop: Pipes of Fancy

#255
post #18

This is evergreen when talking about Hyperloop: http://www.cat-bus.com/2017/12/gadgetbahn/ The problems with building this have nothing to do with technology but with right-of-way, investment, and politics. If those factors were solved, we'd already have high-speed rail in places where Hyperloop has been proposed. The fact that we don't says that Hyperloop is unlikely to be feasible as well.

Which is why the first Hyperloop will probably be built outside the USA. Melbourne to Sydney always seemed like a good choice to me. It's one of the busiest air routes in the world[1], there is obviously tons of solar, lots of open land beside the existing road, no seismic activity to speak of and it's a good long distance to get up to speed (~1000km). [1] (actually #3 in the world by number of passengers) https://en…

> lots of open land beside the existing road,

Then you can just build a conventional 300kph high speed train and track. They are 'off the shelf' commodities these days.

It will still be competitive with flying.

Re: Hyperloop: Pipes of Fancy

#256
post #251
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please remind me again how a company with a market share of 0.6% [1] is changing global transportation? It's fascinating to me how people seem to vastly underestimate the actual volume of the global car market while overestimating the impact of unicorns. In order to even make a dent in the global market, getting into the double digits would be required. Even in the market "dominated" by Tesla (e.g. plug-in EVs), thei…

Tesla already changed global transportation, by dragging auto manufacturers kicking and screaming to make real investments in electric transportation. They've averaged a CAGR of 40% or so for the fast decade and have no intentions of slowing down. Obviously they won't get 100% of the global auto market, but they're much more influential and dangerous than you'd be led to believe just by looking at their market share.…

These investments are due to changes and mandates from legislation, though, not market pressure [1]. Governments are pushing for total fleet emission limits and automakers are forced to either build EVs or pay fines (or Tesla - same deal).

> By the way, SpaceX performed 65% of all the orbital space launches that happened in 2018.

And that has what to do with EVs and Tesla? Whataboutism at its finest...

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/8/18300393/tesla-fiat-chrysl...

Re: Hyperloop: Pipes of Fancy

#257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another thing, is that anyone that punches a hole big enough in the tube basically transforms half of the hyperloop into a bomb. Energy = pressure * volume. That's a lot of energy smashing through a hyperloop capsule. Basically, imagine if 3% of the tube was filled with pipe bombs, but in reverse.

The tube would need egress points, interfaces to stations. I think the difficulty of building one tube between stations is like building a 100km long airplane fuselage. But any proposal is little more than "'just' build a tube!"

The difference between what an aircraft fuselage and what the hyperloop tube needs to do actually seem to be quite massive (caution, back of napkin understanding from somebody who is casually interested but by no means an engineer).

The hyperloop is apparently to be pressurised at around 1/1000th of the pressure of the atmosphere (around 0.015psi). An airplane cabin is apparently pressurised to around 11-12 psi and at an altitude of 36,000 feet apparently the atmospheric pressure is about 3.3 psi so actually the plane fuselage only has to manage a pressure difference of about 3.6 times. So it's like building a 100km long airplane fuselage that has to deal with pressure differences that are something like 280 times greater (please excuse/correct me if this is not the relevant comparison) - although you probably claw back a lot of the difference from a generalised perspective of engineering difficulty from not having to put the thing in the air to begin with.

Edit: I suppose it's more like building 100km of space craft cabin, which probably underscores my understanding of the difficulty a bit better.

Re: Hyperloop: Pipes of Fancy

#258
post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Call me pro tesla if you will but I think you're underestimating the influence Tesla has had and is having on the whole planet. Few years ago they were a ridicule curiosity. Now electric vehicles are everywhere, trucks are on the way.

It's highly debatable whether this was due to Tesla or actual legislation, though. CO² fleet restriction forced the hand of automakers, not 3% EV market share. A substantial portion of Tesla's operational income comes from CO² certificates from automakers that don't meet the CO² restrictions, by the way [1]. Also something that people tend to overlook. [1] https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/8/18300393/tesla-fiat-chrysl.…

come on, have you forgot VW recent scandal ? CO2 emission was solved partially by cheating, not making EVs

Re: Hyperloop: Pipes of Fancy

#259

This is evergreen when talking about Hyperloop: http://www.cat-bus.com/2017/12/gadgetbahn/ The problems with building this have nothing to do with technology but with right-of-way, investment, and politics. If those factors were solved, we'd already have high-speed rail in places where Hyperloop has been proposed. The fact that we don't says that Hyperloop is unlikely to be feasible as well.

That "Gadgetbahn" article is great, but I do have one criticism. From the article: "If the idea is viable and the people behind it are competent, it should have attracted private investment, as there should be a potential to make profit selling the technology. After all, the proposal has been around for 23 years." High speed rail on a large scale is really something that has to come from the government. While there a…

"High speed rail on a large scale is really something that has to come from the government."

We learned about this in highschool history.

From wikipedia:

The Pacific Railroad Acts of 1862 were a series of acts of Congress that promoted the construction of a "transcontinental railroad" (the Pacific Railroad) in the United States through authorizing the issuance of government bonds and the grants of land to railroad companies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Railroad_Acts

All transportation is subsidized by government. Great investment; I'm completely on board. With the understanding that owners and operators pay back via taxes. (Whatever is fair, something modest.)

Re: Hyperloop: Pipes of Fancy

#260
post #256
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla already changed global transportation, by dragging auto manufacturers kicking and screaming to make real investments in electric transportation. They've averaged a CAGR of 40% or so for the fast decade and have no intentions of slowing down. Obviously they won't get 100% of the global auto market, but they're much more influential and dangerous than you'd be led to believe just by looking at their market share.…

These investments are due to changes and mandates from legislation , though, not market pressure [1]. Governments are pushing for total fleet emission limits and automakers are forced to either build EVs or pay fines (or Tesla - same deal). > By the way, SpaceX performed 65% of all the orbital space launches that happened in 2018. And that has what to do with EVs and Tesla? Whataboutism at its finest... [1] https://w…

I was referring to GP, who said

>It's nice to see Tesla and Spacex changing global transportation

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