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Airbnb Plans to File Confidentially for IPO in August

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Re: Airbnb Plans to File Confidentially for IPO in August

#81

Post by xoxoy »

lasgsf wrote: post #46

Not an employee but overall I am quite bullish on Airbnb as ironically they will be the definition of a what a post-covid travel company will become. Couple points in their favour: 1. Work from home becomes work from anywhere: The WFH trend is here to stay and will grow. If you have an option why not stay anywhere in world and work vs. close by home? I expect we will see a big % of WFH markets be global travelers. Pr…

the number of people who will hop from one airbnb to the next during some unknown WFH period is absurdly small

Re: Airbnb Plans to File Confidentially for IPO in August

#82

Post by maest »

meddlepal wrote: post #50
tunesmith wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who's planning for the end of COVID by January? That sounds a lot like how when everyone decided it was over in May. I've heard some optimism about the end of 2021, maybe 2nd half of 2021 for rich countries, but not January.

Throw January out the window. Answer this question? Is AirBNB a valuable idea? I think the answer is yes. Stocks go up based on future projections. Even if they have to IPO, declare Chapter 11 in 2020, and reform for 2021 there's still a valuable company in my mind because the product is revolutionary. Before COVID killed travel I would always favor renting a AirBNB for over a hotel. It was marginally cheaper and off…

> Is AirBNB a valuable idea?

That is a meaningless question. What matters is value vs price and the IPO price isn't known yet.

Re: Airbnb Plans to File Confidentially for IPO in August

#83

Post by maest »

richiezc wrote: post #41
naveen99 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s questionable. Shares don’t expire, options do. And options can be exercised at will anytime before expiry, with or without an ipo.

sure, but how are they going to pay the AMT tax on that? options from 10 years ago are in the $0.XX range and 409a FMV today even after the drop is like $58

I would expect there to be money lenders willing to extend collateralised loans to finance the tax.

Generally, it's not extremely difficult to obtain liquidity if you are reasonably paper-rich.

Re: Airbnb Plans to File Confidentially for IPO in August

#84

Post by piva00 »

taurath wrote: post #72
eanzenberg wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid is going away in 6-12 months. I wouldn’t stake a long term business proposal on it.

They had a thriving business model before it, and there won’t be fewer WFH people after Covid

Thriving business model while the slow cooker of regulations don't catch up to them.

There are reports of some touristic cities starting to cap Airbnb rentals, or just outright outlawing them. It's for good measure, Airbnbs in Barcelona, Lisboa and a number of other European cities have priced out the local population, investors buying 4-10 apartments on the same house to rent out as short-term rentals.

Airbnb created a pressure in the housing market that didn't exist before, for cities that already suffered with housing it really really sucks.

So it's the same as Uber: get into a regulatory grey area, capture the market and then fight over so regulations don't catch up with you. The whole business model of Airbnb was based on avoiding regulations, landlords have used this to prop up their short-term profits as it's much more profitable to rent out an Airbnb in Barcelona for 7-10 days per season-month than renting it out long-term monthly throughout the year.

Re: Airbnb Plans to File Confidentially for IPO in August

#86

Post by MattGaiser »

jariel wrote: post #57
an_opabinia wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of the last $5,000 I’ve spent on AirBnB, not a single dollar was spent on a legal host.

Uber and AirBnB have revealed that the Western World is far more lawless than we had imagined. Who knew you could just 'start running cabs'. Even city hall says 'no' ... they just keep going. It's really bizarre. Irrespective of whether or now we should allow AirBnB and Uber it's crazy that civic institutions seem to have no control. If I was mayor and we decided 'no' on Uber I would be fining Uber millions and indiv…

I think it is just Western democracy at work.

City Hall says 'no' and then they get a barrage of letters and emails demanding they don't hurt Uber or Airbnb as people love them. City Council doesn't want to have the deal with the fight, so they capitulate.

> If I was mayor and we decided 'no' on Uber I would be fining Uber millions and individual drivers a lot and ask regular cabs and cops to be on the lookout.

Are you prepared to deal with angry petitions and unhappy city councillors? Would you really be willing to put up the fight? Especially when there is virtually nobody in support of taxis and hotels?

Re: Airbnb Plans to File Confidentially for IPO in August

#87

Post by sephamorr »

romanhn wrote: post #76

I recently had the occasion to stay with 4 different Airbnb hosts over the span of under a month, my takeaway was that if I owned any Airbnb stock, I would've sold it immediately. The first two accommodations were huge let downs in terms of cleanliness, despite both advertising Enhanced Clean. The first trip was booked for a month, but we got sick of ants, mice and lack of action after about a week and left early. Th…

The piece that always bothered my about Airbnb is how it incentivizes hosts to cheat in small (but not insignificant) ways. If my only recourse for not-as-described when I've arrived is to accept the keys, or abandon the booking, that's not a real choice. Most people in an unfamiliar place will just put up with the exaggerated "fully stocked" kitchen, false pictures, etc, and are left with no ability to claw anything back from the host. I think much of this would go away if guests could get partial refunds if they can prove the cheating.

Re: Airbnb Plans to File Confidentially for IPO in August

#88

Post by collyw »

piva00 wrote: post #84
taurath wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They had a thriving business model before it, and there won’t be fewer WFH people after Covid

Thriving business model while the slow cooker of regulations don't catch up to them. There are reports of some touristic cities starting to cap Airbnb rentals, or just outright outlawing them. It's for good measure, Airbnbs in Barcelona, Lisboa and a number of other European cities have priced out the local population, investors buying 4-10 apartments on the same house to rent out as short-term rentals. Airbnb create…

Renting and buying property was already a pain in the arse in Barcelona before Airbnb, but they certainly didn't help.

Re: Airbnb Plans to File Confidentially for IPO in August

#89

Post by Xavdidtheshadow »

naveen99 wrote: post #44
richiezc wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

b/c you can sell them at that point, the shares today are illiquid and they'd probably have to do something like a prepaid variable forward to be able to afford to exercise and pay tax (~23% of FMV - strike price) we're talking millions of dollars for early employees who didn't do an 83b election. once airbnb IPOs they could do either of the following: * Cashless (exercise and sell to cover: sell enough of your share…

You clearly know more about this since it affects you personally. But airbnb shares aren’t that illiquid. I purchased some myself in a secondary market. You might lose 5% to commission, which I guess is enough to want an ipo if you have a lot of money tied up there.

What site/market did you use? That's an interesting concept I had never heard of!

Re: Airbnb Plans to File Confidentially for IPO in August

#90

Post by hajola »

xoxoy wrote: post #81
lasgsf wrote: post #46

Not an employee but overall I am quite bullish on Airbnb as ironically they will be the definition of a what a post-covid travel company will become. Couple points in their favour: 1. Work from home becomes work from anywhere: The WFH trend is here to stay and will grow. If you have an option why not stay anywhere in world and work vs. close by home? I expect we will see a big % of WFH markets be global travelers. Pr…

the number of people who will hop from one airbnb to the next during some unknown WFH period is absurdly small

Why do you assume that? Are there any papers/data available on the subject?

I have met quite a few digital nomads, who do just that.

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