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Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election

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Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election

#181
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Countries that have that capability can't shoot down 40000 of them.

A few hits would provide enough junk for runaway process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

I don't think a country with space capability is seriously considering making orbit useless over censorship. That'd be like shooting yourself in the foot right after you've trained for a marathon, in order to ingratiate yourself with firearms manufacturers.

Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election

#182
post #19
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see Starlink shutting down subscribers if the Belarussian government asks them to, at least not very quickly. If the terminals are available, this is going to make all of the national internet projects (Russia, China, Iran) much more difficult to pull off.

My guess is Starlink isn't going to turn off subscribers for small countries, but large countries like Russia and China may have more influence. The real question is if there's going to be enough receivers to make a difference.

> My guess is Starlink isn't going to turn off subscribers for small countries, but large countries like Russia and China may have more influence.

That Musk guy lives in America? What about some extra persuasion?

Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election

#183
post #7

wondering what / if any impact "the space internet" (or like networks) will have on national government's ability to disrupt comms. or if it just shifts the goalposts to a different network operator

Russia and China have already moved to prohibit access to these LEO internet services, or try to compel the providers to bring down all data that originates in their country to in-country servers for review and control. They are also developing their own constellations in order to provide a service which they can control.

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/technology/russia-bans...

https://www.scmp.com/abacus/tech/article/3085146/does-elon-m...

https://www.scmp.com/abacus/tech/article/3089481/satellite-i...

Russia to create orbital Internet satellite cluster by 2025 - Tass https://tass.com/science/1005554

Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election

#184
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would a state extract fines out of an external entity who does not operate in that state? International court? Those only deal with human rights, resources and border disputes.

Shoot down the satellites?

For a constellation as large as starlink, that would probably require a lot of missiles, even accounting for Kessler effects.

Also, doings such a thing to an American corporation that's only one or two degrees of separation from the USDoD may prove to be a costly mistake. I think Belarus would need to depend on the strength of their relationship with Russia to avoid retaliation. That hasn't protected Syria though, so maybe Belarus [Lukashenko] should think twice before attempting some hotheaded shit like that.

Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election

#185
post #91

I just posted a link[0] with some of Friedman's response to what's going on. TLDR: aside from Belarus' geopolitical importance and predicament, it sounds like what's going on is largely a matter of speculation, though the events of the last decade read in light of geopolitical realities seem to suggest Russian involvement. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24121275

It looks plausible that Russia is trying to follow the US playbook in Ukraine, i.e. a controllable quasi-chaotic removal of a person in power that goes against their interests and outlived his usefulness (this time enlarging Russia), while getting a popular support for it and making sure the other party (US) can't do the same. I don't think Russia can afford losing another buffer separating it from EU, so anything is…

Unfortunately Russians can't afford peace and prosperity because of Russia interests outside of its borders. It would be great if all of this was just a computer game.

Person in power was not popular and quite stupid - redirecting so much wealth in own pockets and own region, fooling on hot EU and language topics, imprisoning political opponent. The feature was gloom, he had to leave. If someone helped that's fine for me. What was not fine is seizure of land by neighbor.

All the best for Belarus, hope it would not be invaded.

Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election

#186
post #7

wondering what / if any impact "the space internet" (or like networks) will have on national government's ability to disrupt comms. or if it just shifts the goalposts to a different network operator

Belarus currently allows satellite phones:

https://blog.telestial.com/2017/11/countries-where-satellite...

Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election

#187
post #7

wondering what / if any impact "the space internet" (or like networks) will have on national government's ability to disrupt comms. or if it just shifts the goalposts to a different network operator

An ISP must be registered with the government and must follow laws in place for filtering content and working with the government. Whether the ISP is using any local infrastructure or "going to space" doesn't matter.

> An ISP must be registered with the government and must follow laws in place for filtering content and working with the government. Whether the ISP is using any local infrastructure or "going to space" doesn't matter.

An ISP should not be registering with the government, and it must follow any laws. Oppose censorship.

Anonymous, censorship free communications is a lethal threat to rogue regimes.

It allows opposition to organise and subvert their governments without a threat of its leaders being exposed, and killed.

Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election

#189
post #23
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is Starlink isn't going to turn off subscribers for small countries, but large countries like Russia and China may have more influence. The real question is if there's going to be enough receivers to make a difference.

Any country which has the capability of shooting down satellites has more influence than countries which can't do it. But even a country with like 100 million residents, if it doesn't have a space program (or someone protecting it with a space program), it doesn't have much of a say.

Shooting down an American-owned satellite would be an act of war against the United States. Not many countries have enough control over the US domestic political process to keep the potential risks of that low enough to justify the benefits.

Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election

#190
I have some close acquaintances in BY, so this has been hard.

We saw that (at least as of 8 PM UTC) outbound connections to HTTP servers wasn't really a problem. A fresh ec2 box with a basic web server wasn't effected.

So, early yesterday I set up an OpenVPN server on ec2 (eu-west-1) to try to get some slow but functional internet access. What we saw was that about 15-30 seconds after the TLS handshake the connection would stall and drop out. To me this says they're doing some deep packet inspection to find TLS and dropping those firewall states. I also noticed while running `tcpdump` that almost every tcp segment from a BY address had incorrect CRC's after the IDS kicked in.

Tonight we're going to try using an xor tcp proxy to obfuscate the VPN traffic. The system we're using has a name, but I'm not going to say it to risk KGB (yes it's still called that there) creating IDS signatures and killing our VPN. I'm sure that after a few hours it will start dropping these connections as well, but if we can buy some time that's worth while.

This, really, is the real problem with the internet. In many small countries there's only one IX, often under government ownership or supervision. You might think that they know better than to do stuff like this, but push comes to shove they'll all lock it down as soon as there's a threat to their authority.

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