I just posted a link[0] with some of Friedman's response to what's going on. TLDR: aside from Belarus' geopolitical importance and predicament, it sounds like what's going on is largely a matter of speculation, though the events of the last decade read in light of geopolitical realities seem to suggest Russian involvement.
Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election
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Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election
#12Context: Russian Mercs in Belarus: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/belarus-arrests-dozen...
Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election
#13wondering what / if any impact "the space internet" (or like networks) will have on national government's ability to disrupt comms. or if it just shifts the goalposts to a different network operator
It will shift a lot of power from the countries where the internet users are located to the countries where the space internet companies operate from. Both in the free countries like the EU, and in non-free countries like Belarus. That being said, the user's country still has some level of control:
* the companies want to be paid by their users somehow, and local governments usually have control over money flows inside their own banking systems
* the country can ban receiving/sending equipment. It's not small and thus easier to spot but people will likely get creative and build their own equipment instead of importing it
* the country can also install jammers but those cost money to set up and maintain and while you can put jammers close to the users, you can't put jammers close to the satellites. I'm not sure what that means about ability to jam both directions, as directional receivers on the ground should still be able to receive a signal, but maybe ground jammers can just send at larger strengths.
Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election
#14wondering what / if any impact "the space internet" (or like networks) will have on national government's ability to disrupt comms. or if it just shifts the goalposts to a different network operator
I don't see Starlink shutting down subscribers if the Belarussian government asks them to, at least not very quickly. If the terminals are available, this is going to make all of the national internet projects (Russia, China, Iran) much more difficult to pull off.
Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election
#15This is incredibly sad. I spent a few weeks in Belarus last summer (2019) and everyone seemed incredibly hopeful and positive. It's a beautiful country and Minsk is a gorgeous city.
I've been able to contact a few of my friends there sporadically over the past few days, but have heard nothing from them for 24 hours. Initially it seemed like a block on communication apps like WhatsApp and they could get around it with a VPN but now it seems that it's turned into a full internet shutdown.
Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
At some point in the past, she said that her kids were safe abroad, but it does not take a big country to successfully track and extort people anywhere in the world.
I believe her husband, who she has been running in the stead of after he was (unjustly) disqualified, is currently imprisoned in Belarus. That is probably one of her concerns.
This is true.
Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election
#17wondering what / if any impact "the space internet" (or like networks) will have on national government's ability to disrupt comms. or if it just shifts the goalposts to a different network operator
It will shift a lot of power from the countries where the internet users are located to the countries where the space internet companies operate from. Both in the free countries like the EU, and in non-free countries like Belarus. That being said, the user's country still has some level of control: * the companies want to be paid by their users somehow, and local governments usually have control over money flows insi…
* International treaties and national laws prohibit sending radio signals into the country if the countries government doesn't give you permission. Space ISPs are very unlikely to do so without permission except at the behest of their home government.
Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election
#18wondering what / if any impact "the space internet" (or like networks) will have on national government's ability to disrupt comms. or if it just shifts the goalposts to a different network operator
An ISP must be registered with the government and must follow laws in place for filtering content and working with the government. Whether the ISP is using any local infrastructure or "going to space" doesn't matter.
Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election
#19wondering what / if any impact "the space internet" (or like networks) will have on national government's ability to disrupt comms. or if it just shifts the goalposts to a different network operator
I don't see Starlink shutting down subscribers if the Belarussian government asks them to, at least not very quickly. If the terminals are available, this is going to make all of the national internet projects (Russia, China, Iran) much more difficult to pull off.
My guess is Starlink isn't going to turn off subscribers for small countries, but large countries like Russia and China may have more influence.
The real question is if there's going to be enough receivers to make a difference.
Re: Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election
#20I just posted a link[0] with some of Friedman's response to what's going on. TLDR: aside from Belarus' geopolitical importance and predicament, it sounds like what's going on is largely a matter of speculation, though the events of the last decade read in light of geopolitical realities seem to suggest Russian involvement. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24121275
Geopolitics are not at the root of the current unrest.
It's just that Lukashenka built himself an army of strongmen that have nothing to loose and a servile command state. Then, expectedly, he aged and his physical and mental health deteriorated to the point that
1. Lukashenka made enemies with Russia and Putin personally.
2. Over the last few months, he managed to loose all the remaining support base he had.
3. On August, 3 he acknowledged personally ordering killings.
Here are some of the nastier facts about him:
1. He isolated his first wife, the mother if his two kids and his sex toy, the mother of his third kid. They could not leave their houses for years.
2. Aged 65, he sleeps with young girls and brags about it.
It's no surprise that any united opposition candidate would win the election.
But Belarusians had a lucky chance to have the best ever candidate.
The world completely missed out a wonderful election campaign in Belarus by three beautiful ladies that took on the leadership after their men were jailed or ran away. They were calling themselves Love, Might, Win. The lead opposition candidate, the Might of the trio emerged as the nation leader literally in a matter of weeks. Her speeches were simple, peaceful and straight to the point. She did not call people into streets. Still, every night, over 100,000 people confront the police and the army for her.
Some died.