The only people I know who seem to feel really good about their COVID fitness levels are those who prioritized it before the pandemic and are so committed that they were willing and able to figure out alternatives. People who didn't prioritize it or struggled to get into sustainable schedules are doing poorly. Even some of my friends who had really good routines fell into pretty serious depressions at the start of it…
People definitely thought they were going to jump into home fitness with both feet, but just like New Year's resolutions, I doubt that many of them stuck with it.
If I had to guess, there are two groups of people who are taking advantage of the quarantine to better their fitness routine: people who were already serious, and already had a home gym; and people who are doing something that doesn't take a whole lot of equipment, like yoga.