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Bill Gates calls Microsoft’s TikTok deal a poisoned chalice

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Re: Bill Gates calls Microsoft’s TikTok deal a poisoned chalice

#21
post #10

I do expect TikTok to lose users after Microsoft acquires it. But not because of anything Microsoft might do. TikTok just seems like a fad social network that will inevitably lose the cool factor eventually.

Most users will never feel any change despite who owns it, unless MS pull a FB and inject multiple streams of ads into it overnight.

Re: Bill Gates calls Microsoft’s TikTok deal a poisoned chalice

#22
post #10

I do expect TikTok to lose users after Microsoft acquires it. But not because of anything Microsoft might do. TikTok just seems like a fad social network that will inevitably lose the cool factor eventually.

I'm not so convinced. Let me first say, I can't stand TikTok and find its constant stream of annoying music angering.

That out of the way, my wife and daughter love it, and I can see why. It made it easy for anyone and everyone to share clips, with a touch of social. It makes YouTube look like a slow bloated dinosaur. I just don't see people giving it up.

Re: Bill Gates calls Microsoft’s TikTok deal a poisoned chalice

#23
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Bill Gates is worried that assets acquired in a $30B deal may take inordinate amounts of time and attention from senior leadership, at the expense of the rest of a $1600 billion business.

He's chairman of the board. He can stop it if he wants to.

Not any more; he stepped down earlier this year.

https://news.microsoft.com/2020/03/13/microsoft-announces-ch...

Re: Bill Gates calls Microsoft’s TikTok deal a poisoned chalice

#24
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Bill Gates is worried that assets acquired in a $30B deal may take inordinate amounts of time and attention from senior leadership, at the expense of the rest of a $1600 billion business.

He's chairman of the board. He can stop it if he wants to.

He is no longer part of the board. He isn't chairman since 2014 and left the board in March this year.

Re: Bill Gates calls Microsoft’s TikTok deal a poisoned chalice

#25
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Bill Gates is worried that assets acquired in a $30B deal may take inordinate amounts of time and attention from senior leadership, at the expense of the rest of a $1600 billion business.

I can totally see this happening. This is the pathology of large business executives - once you have a mature business, it is boring, and pretty much anything else seems exciting, and so you focus on this new thing, and worse, start promoting it internally as a model for everything _that's actually successful_. Due to my career wanderings, I've seen this a few times, and many times the hot new thing has been a mounta…

Boiled down to: nobody ever gets a promotion for maintaining the success of something that's already successful.

Which is a shame, but the corporate game theory optimality of leapfrogging between hot projects has held true at essentially every company I've ever worked for.

Re: Bill Gates calls Microsoft’s TikTok deal a poisoned chalice

#26
post #22
post #10

I do expect TikTok to lose users after Microsoft acquires it. But not because of anything Microsoft might do. TikTok just seems like a fad social network that will inevitably lose the cool factor eventually.

I'm not so convinced. Let me first say, I can't stand TikTok and find its constant stream of annoying music angering. That out of the way, my wife and daughter love it, and I can see why. It made it easy for anyone and everyone to share clips, with a touch of social. It makes YouTube look like a slow bloated dinosaur. I just don't see people giving it up.

I mean Vine was the same concept and died due to lack of profitable monetization model.

How does TikTok earn money?

Re: Bill Gates calls Microsoft’s TikTok deal a poisoned chalice

#27
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily undo MS, but rather that the deal looks attractive but may actually not be any good. In other words, it could end up being one of those deals where a few years down the road MS has to write the purchase price off as a loss.

Given the opportunity though, it still seems like a risk well worth it. Businesses rarely (if ever) fail because of an acquisition gone wrong. But a acquisition gone right can have great returns. If Instagram flopped when Facebook bought it, Facebook would still be doing just fine. But since it did go well.. yeah. So I believe that it's still probably in the investor's best interest if MS does the deal even if it's o…

I mean some of the biggest examples have been tech. AOL and Time Warner was a hot mess that destroyed both, for instance.

Re: Bill Gates calls Microsoft’s TikTok deal a poisoned chalice

#28
post #18
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I personally believe government should not allow those types of lies or fraud or child pornography [to be hidden with encryption like WhatsApp or Facebook Messenger]." Disappointing to see that Bill Gates isn't concerned about the slippery slope of regulating encryption. It frankly sounds like he'd be on board with the EARN IT act. As long as we're only undermining freedom for the children or to make sure there's no…

His point is more nuanced than that, and oversimplified complex ideas virally spreading through social media is part of what he talks about. "Q: As someone who has built your life on science and logic, I’m curious what you think when you see so many people signing onto this anti-science view of the world. A: Well, strangely, I’m involved in almost everything that anti-science is fighting. I’m involved with climate ch…

I read all of what you pasted before I posted. I don't see how it changes my point at all.

There's a complete disconnect between the first statement about encryption and the second. Unless Bill Gates really thinks that the vast majority of spread is through private messages.

Even accepting the premise that censorship is the right approach, the vast majority of spread comes from public, unencrypted post. The connection to encrypted messaging is tenuous at best.

Acting as if killing encryption is the solution to combating misinformation sounds like a convenient strawman that Bill Barr would love to throw around.

Re: Bill Gates calls Microsoft’s TikTok deal a poisoned chalice

#29
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not so convinced. Let me first say, I can't stand TikTok and find its constant stream of annoying music angering. That out of the way, my wife and daughter love it, and I can see why. It made it easy for anyone and everyone to share clips, with a touch of social. It makes YouTube look like a slow bloated dinosaur. I just don't see people giving it up.

I mean Vine was the same concept and died due to lack of profitable monetization model. How does TikTok earn money?

There’s an ad when you return to the app. Since you’re expecting a full screen video to auto play, they often aren’t out of place. You can skip them immediately as well.

Besides ads, one would think there’s endless ways to monetize a strong fun brand.

Re: Bill Gates calls Microsoft’s TikTok deal a poisoned chalice

#30
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can totally see this happening. This is the pathology of large business executives - once you have a mature business, it is boring, and pretty much anything else seems exciting, and so you focus on this new thing, and worse, start promoting it internally as a model for everything _that's actually successful_. Due to my career wanderings, I've seen this a few times, and many times the hot new thing has been a mounta…

Boiled down to: nobody ever gets a promotion for maintaining the success of something that's already successful. Which is a shame, but the corporate game theory optimality of leapfrogging between hot projects has held true at essentially every company I've ever worked for.

I think it's more complex than the stewardship problem - that problem, specifically, is internal, and the executives who engage in change for the sake of advancement usually do so knowingly.

I'm talking about something completely different - the executives in this case are not knowing participants, they are in the state of mind to be snowed.

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