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Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

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Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#71

Post by aww_dang »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #65
vxNsr wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is obviously false on its face. China would have invaded Taiwan from the get for if not for the US. And blaming china’s self defense fears on their building up the military is just communist apologist nonsense

Based on what sources do you make your claims, and what makes you so sure Mahbubani is wrong? Also, regarding "communist"... they're not really communist, haven't been for a long time now. 80% of the businesses in China are privately owned, and people have private property. Though socialist elements still exist; my wife's grandparents recently received new houses from the government, as reimbursement for tearing down…

Yes, 'private' enterprises that are required to have party members in positions of control.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-congress-companies/...

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#73

Post by dirtyid »

Steltek wrote: post #51
dirtyid wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look up Fujian Jinhua plant 2018. Truth is US has been sanctioning and using CFIUS to undermine Chinese IC for a while now. Many blocked acquisitions under Obama. Relationship was just less acrimonious and less public. I suspect even Nvidia's ARM ambitions is part of plan to undermine Chinese IC efforts. Like how William Barr floated idea to get CISCO to buy controlling share in SE or Nokia to rival Huawei 5G. That s…

Interesting theory re Arizona meaning Taiwan loses its advantage. Although no one can ascribe too much (or really any) foresight to the current US admin, I have to imagine there's a domino theory w.r.t. to Taiwan and the SCS region. Ceding China's control (military, economic, or otherwise) of Taiwan would panic every other independent nation in the region into striking a good deal with China to hopefully maintain the…

At least with semi there's continuity. And some of the China-hawks in the admin, though cray cray and warmongering, are also pragmatic. i.e. I think Trump banned TikTok out of spite, but probably Pompeo banned WeChat... as if Trump knows what WeChat is. And probably other hawks pushed for TikTok acquisition, and Trump poison pilled with with extortion to US treasury. A lot of the escalations are... unprecedented, kind of insane, but also calibrated enough that China can tit-for-tat. Whereas Trump would just be insane.

By all accounts TSMC didn't want to open plant in US. They were denying it for months / weeks / days before. And TSMC has invested so much capex in new Taiwan plants that it makes no fiscal sense for them to open low capacity plant in US unless heavily subsidized, and US wouldn't subsidize unless it was for MIC. As for Taiwan's future, really depends on how election goes. I'm skeptical China will allow TSMC / Taiwan to cooperate with US unfettered in semi. Right now there's mediatek buffering Huawei. And other Chinese brands can still sell phones with qualcomm. But if US manage to coerce all Taiwanese semi from working with China... well glitter bombs are going to blow up in Taiwanese fabs before real bombs. I think it's semi is a much more dangerous situation than most people realize. If Trumps over November, there's a few years before Arizonal TSMC comes online to form a useful Chinese semi containment strategy. Or TSMC will delay the play until after Trump term 2. Otherwise, stock up on graphics cards now.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#74

Post by FooBarWidget »

aww_dang wrote: post #71
FooBarWidget wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what sources do you make your claims, and what makes you so sure Mahbubani is wrong? Also, regarding "communist"... they're not really communist, haven't been for a long time now. 80% of the businesses in China are privately owned, and people have private property. Though socialist elements still exist; my wife's grandparents recently received new houses from the government, as reimbursement for tearing down…

Yes, 'private' enterprises that are required to have party members in positions of control. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-congress-companies/...

The larger ones do. Smaller ones don't. And for sure, houses are not owned by the government. The land is, although that is not a uniquely communist thing: in Amsterdam, all land is owned by the city government.

But that really has got nothing to do with ownership. It has got to do with national security, and ensuring that the company does not conflict with public interests. Whether you agree with such reasons is another matter: the point is that it's not about ownership.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#75

Post by MrBuddyCasino »

molszanski wrote: post #46
MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention that Taiwan will trigger the explosive devices that they have embedded into infrastructure and manufacturing plants. China may coerce Taiwanese scientists, but won’t find a functioning chip fab to use.

Hmm. Where can learn more about this deterrence measure?

If you expect a map with locations marked X, well good luck. This is just a long-standing rumor, as these things are obviously kept secret, but the fact that both west-germany and switzerland did this (we actually have hard evidence) to stop advancing soviet forces in the event of war makes this very credible.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#76

Post by aww_dang »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #74
aww_dang wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, 'private' enterprises that are required to have party members in positions of control. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-congress-companies/...

The larger ones do. Smaller ones don't. And for sure, houses are not owned by the government. The land is, although that is not a uniquely communist thing: in Amsterdam, all land is owned by the city government. But that really has got nothing to do with ownership. It has got to do with national security, and ensuring that the company does not conflict with public interests. Whether you agree with such reasons is ano…

A distinction without a difference. Party affiliation is a requirement before a business can even become large. Perhaps you can call them private in the nominal sense. It is reminiscent of the National Socialist's command economy.

Private individuals may own a company on paper, but the party will dictate what is done with it. Look at the case of Jack Ma.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#77

Post by euix »

Nokinside wrote: post #70
euix wrote: post #38

Kirin's probably source something from U.S. designs right? Hence it's production run must end. I am guessing this means Huawei needs to switch to a design that is wholly originating from China (with possible input from Japan and Korea) but right now they are not up to the level of the Kirins. This may really just mean Xiaomi or Oppo gains an advantage over Huawei and takes the top crown.

Huawei can still buy SoC with US technology in it if it's designed and manufactured by others. US restrictions are all about Huawei’s ability to use U.S. technology and software to design and manufacture semiconductors abroad. BIS made targeted rule "to impose a new control over certain foreign-produced items, when there is knowledge that such items are destined to a designated entity on the Entity List." > (i) Items…

>Huawei can still buy SoC with US technology in it if it's designed and manufactured by others.

I don't get it, if the U.S. wants to cripple Huawei why would they let you buy SoC that way? The whole point I thought was that any company dealing with Huawei that used some material proportion of U.S. originated technology to deliver goods to Huawei had to stop. Which means in order for Huawei to build chips it needs a supply chain that is almost completely independent of the U.S.

The closets analogy I can think of is like building nuclear submarines. They are notoriously hard because its not possible to globalize the supply chain, everything in its design must be sourced within the country thus requires a specialized supply chain.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#78

Post by greatjack613 »

nicoburns wrote: post #67
greatjack613 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And a clear win for democratic governments who do not send dissenters to re-training camps. From a competitive landscape, yes it sucks. But Huawei / China needs to be punished for its blatant IP theft, I think this is a great place to start.

You act as if the US doesn't do this. But it has the highest incarceration rates in the world, often for petty crimes like smoking weed. And it also puts prisoners to work.

Through a system of judgement by peers, not a morally corrupt dictator

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#79

Post by greatjack613 »

greatpatton wrote: post #62
greatjack613 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And a clear win for democratic governments who do not send dissenters to re-training camps. From a competitive landscape, yes it sucks. But Huawei / China needs to be punished for its blatant IP theft, I think this is a great place to start.

At the same time the US caused (directly/indirectly) the death of 400-800k people in Iraq. Somehow there is a double standard regarding human rights. China is despicable but I think that the moral ground of the US regarding this kind of issue is quite shaky.

We are a democratic country, don't support a war, vote for someone in office who does not support it.

China on the other hand if you don't support putting muslims in concentration camps, you end up there yourself

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#80

Post by mercer »

parsimo2010 wrote: post #42
samfisher83 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you have a billion people + unlimited funds + some industrial espionage I am sure china will get their chip manufacturing industry built up quickly.

For very technical things, having the information is not the same as having the ability to manufacture. Some industries don't lend themselves to catching up rapidly, you have to go through all the mistakes yourself. I think semiconductors is one of those industries. An example (unrelated to semiconductors) is China's failure to manufacture a decent jet engine even though they've been trying for 30 years. It turns out…

I'd love to hear more elaboration on that, or a link to an article. As someone way out of my depth it seems almost silly that they wouldn't be able to figure that out through a combination of throwing expertise and money at it and spycraft.
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