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U.S. FAA proposes requiring key Boeing 737 MAX design changes

reuters.com

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Re: U.S. FAA proposes requiring key Boeing 737 MAX design changes

#191
post #98
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not include a secondary angle of attack sensor. From what I hear some military aircraft have 4 of them in case of failure. I do understand that the bigger issue was not just that the angle of attack sensor failed but that the crew was not informed of how to handle the failure.

They have two AOA sensors. In a particular stroke of genius, the MCAS system would select one randomly at boot and use it exclusively (so you have twice the failure rate of a single sensor and no benefits from an extra one). And the AOA disagree system the FAA "proposes" installing? That was already an optional extra.

Maybe I need to brush up on my probabilities, but why would you have twice the failure rate?

If each sensor failed 5% of the time and the sensor was chosen at random, wouldn’t the failure rate be the same?

Re: U.S. FAA proposes requiring key Boeing 737 MAX design changes

#192
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for giving the link to the document. Looking at the context, the sentence you quoted is more a built-in disclaimer than a procedure that the pilots were supposed to learn to apply in only a few seconds they would have before the airplane crashes to the ground for overriding pilot close to the ground. After all the changes, it's at the end, and uses the weaseling "may be needed" and "can be used". We saw that n…

The LA pilots worked the problem for 5 minutes, the EA 2 minutes. Quite a bit more than seconds. Frankly, I'm baffled by the EA pilots. If I was a MAX pilot, and I received an EMERGENCY AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVE about how to not crash like LA pilots, it's my job to read, understand, and remember those instructions. And not just my job, it'd save my own life, too. It's not like it's complicated, either. Two simple steps…

A crash is not due to one cause. Multiple things have to fail for this to be a problem. Blaming pilots is way too simplistic. The design of those warnings were highly confusing and overwhelming. Saying "oh, just have better pilots" it NOT good enough. It should be as per the Swiss cheese theory where multiple things should fail before there's a problem. Further, not hide things like MCAS, downplay the need for additional training, refuse additional training when requested, change MCAS without notifying FAA, pressure people into being quick over safe, design MCAS to rely on a sensor, have a critical system (MCAS) rely on one sensor despite this not being allowed (critical systems MUST have multiple sensor inputs), etc.

But yeah, it was the pilots not reading a message.

Looking back, MCAS was not a good idea. But whatever led up to MCAS might have given the 737 MAX also some other bad changes. At the moment we don't know, maybe in future it'll be "obviously aside from MCAS the 737 MAX should also have a fix for X".

Re: U.S. FAA proposes requiring key Boeing 737 MAX design changes

#193
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the non-MAX 737s have had issues recently. https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/07/2...

Planes don't typically sit on the ground for several months without being used so this is a little more forgivable.

I disagree, plane being out of service for a while should be a tested risk factor and is entirely within the realm of possibility pre-COVID.

Re: U.S. FAA proposes requiring key Boeing 737 MAX design changes

#194
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it makes a lot more sense to look at risk per time, because it's basically the same thing as risk per trip, and that's what I really care about. If you tell me I can fly to Mars in a few days on a brachistochrone torchship and it's safer per mile than any other mode of transport, you may be right, and a few days cooped up in a cramped cabin might be a small price to pay for such an exotic vacation destination…

This approach really only makes sense if you're traveling for fun. If you need to get to a particular place then risk per time is absolutely not the same as risk per trip, because the distance you need to travel is fixed.

If you need to go somewhere with a realistic choice between e.g. driving and flying (which seems quite rare), risk per distance is fine for choosing one or the other via risk per trip. But the implication of it being a realistic choice is that the travel times are comparable, meaning risk per time will also be comparable, and risk per time has the benefit of not producing absurd answers for edge cases like my Mars example.

Every new world-shrinking transportation innovation has changed the distribution of things in the world and increased the distance society expects us to travel on various kinds of "required" trips. That's because time and money are more important than distance in deciding whether a trip is worth it.

Re: U.S. FAA proposes requiring key Boeing 737 MAX design changes

#195
post #6

Given the option, would anyone choose to book a trip on one of these new Boeing aircraft rather than anything else? I know I wouldn't, my family wouldn't, and none of the friends or co-workers I've discussed this with would. Something tells me airlines are going to be making it even more difficult to determine which aircraft you'll be flying on when you book a ticket. As far as I know they're not required to tell you…

It would depend on the airline. Southwest Airlines, definitely. Some third world airline where their pilots come through pilot mills and take the controls at less than 500 hours? No way. But that is true with any airplane, not just the Max. Statistically Southwest Airlines should have had a crash, yet it was Ethiopian and Lion Air that did. Given the maintenance and pilots history of Lion Air, a crash wasn’t unexpect…

> Lion Air and Ethiopian crashes could have been prevented with better pilot actions.

Boeing tried to say it was the pilots for a long time. I don't want to fly on a plane whereby you need to be an exceptional pilot to not crash the plane.

Further, Lion Air requested additional pilot training. Boeing mocked them for it: https://fortune.com/2020/01/14/boeing-lion-air-extra-737-max...

2 planes crashed really quickly after they were new.

> it’s pretty clear that there are some scary operations going on.

Two really new planes crashing is only due to pilot error?

Re: U.S. FAA proposes requiring key Boeing 737 MAX design changes

#196
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. The "AOA sensor disagreement" light is built into every cockpit, but it won't turn on unless the airline purchased a specific premium add-on. Boeing claims they initially didn't realize the light was bundled as an add-on, and then once they did realize, they decided it wasn't critical to the airplane's safety and just kept selling it as an add-on, which is... kind of alarming, to put it mildly. https://www.nytim…

> The "AOA sensor disagreement" light is built into every cockpit, While technically true, that sounds a bit misleading considering that the AOA DISAGREE warning "light" is just a text indicator on the primary flight display: https://www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/commercial/737...

Shoot you’re right, I read “warning light” and just assumed. Thanks for the correction! On the other hand, it’s even weirder that Boeing didn’t bother fixing it if it was just a software patch...

Re: U.S. FAA proposes requiring key Boeing 737 MAX design changes

#197
post #6

Given the option, would anyone choose to book a trip on one of these new Boeing aircraft rather than anything else? I know I wouldn't, my family wouldn't, and none of the friends or co-workers I've discussed this with would. Something tells me airlines are going to be making it even more difficult to determine which aircraft you'll be flying on when you book a ticket. As far as I know they're not required to tell you…

I would. I get it that Boeing messed up the first time, but this was always a failure that was preventable with proper pilot instruction and awareness. Even if they didn't fix the software I couldn't imagine a 737MAX pilot not being aware of this. People still drive Tesla's using autopilot and they drive head on into barriers on the highway or under trailers and decapitate people.

> preventable with proper pilot instruction and awareness

More pilot training? The training that was sold to everyone not to be needed? https://fortune.com/2020/01/14/boeing-lion-air-extra-737-max...

It's not the crazy rush to have a new airplane asap? Plus avoiding scrutiny by hiding what MCAS did? Plus hiding scrutiny by having it rely on only one sensor? Plus not assessing MCAS as a new critical system, meaning it should have 2 or 3 sensors as input, plus a new type rating? It wasn't all of that and more.. just some pilot instruction and awareness?

Re: U.S. FAA proposes requiring key Boeing 737 MAX design changes

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even though this model has big design flaws and a relatively bad safety record, the absolute level of risk is still pretty low. I knowingly expose myself to larger risks in my day-to-day life. So I won’t lose any sleep over booking a flight on this type of plane.

This is not a good argument. You can control this level of risk. Taking on any unnecessary risk when you don't have to is not a wise choice.

I would be very hesitant to get on a MAX, but we take unnecessary risks all the time. Getting in a car, having a beer, etc. are all activities that carry risk. Ultimately it's "will the hassle of avoiding the MAX be worth the benefit of not getting on one?" and for a lot (probably the vast majority) of people the answer is no.

Re: U.S. FAA proposes requiring key Boeing 737 MAX design changes

#199
post #8

Noob question here: Since, if I get this correctly, all these changes will require new pilot training, why is the MCAS still needed? My understanding was that this system was installed in order for the new plane to behave exactly like the old one therefore not requiring costly additional pilot training.

> why is the MCAS still needed? Because Boeing and the FAA are talking out of both sides of their mouth. The planes aren't safe to fly without MCAS, MCAS is unreliable, so the solution is to disable MCAS whenever the plane determines it's best, even if it's going to be highly detrimental to safely operating. We still don't have ANY data on flying the planes safely without MCAS. We only have data on planes where MCAS…

MCAS is only supposed to activate in extreme circumstances. The planes are perfectly safe to fly and capable of flying without MCAS working.

I think you need to read up on MCAS a bit more.

Re: U.S. FAA proposes requiring key Boeing 737 MAX design changes

#200
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Triple is not needed, just double with a redundant "disagree" alarm. Once the pilot knows there's one bad AOA, they can lock out the bad one as an input to the autopilot/MCAS, or hand fly without automation. Of course this is all a bunch of new software and training though.

This is what I don't get. If the solution is "install a AOA Disagree light, and disable MCAS in that scenario", why has it taken two years to develop this solution?

There's way more to it actually.

The Flight Computer as architected was found to be a single point-of-failure with a catastrophic failure mode with the software as delivered. That's a big fat no-no. Even if it was only under the most unlikely circumstances possible, you don't design a system that can fail that way, even in theory. Murphy is considered to always find a way, so you must be able to survive that casualty.

Therefore, they had to rearchitect the software with greater redundancy, which in aerospace, comes with such a load of verification burden as to be a majority of the work on it's own, especially given as it will almost guaranteed change the operating interface procedurewise in some way for pilots. Throw in the issues getting all international regulators independent buy-in, and fix wish lists, negotiating through those, documenting and publishing training and maintenance material updates...

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/newly...

There were also deeper problems from at least a reading of regulations from my point of view with how interpretations of statutory regulation have evolved, but unfortunately, those are beyond any ability of me to confirm or comment on ongoing developments as a non-industry insider. (Read: practically just me being pissy because no one in the industry except maybe WalterBright has given me a sufficiently convincing reckoning of.) From my recollection of my digging at the time, there were various statutory test criteria that an MCAS-less MAX could not meet, and thus should not have been certified as a civil transport aircraft if evaluated strictly to the statute as written. Obviously, reading of statute doesn't directly translate to 100% accurate assessments of how it is enforced, as they are written to be understood and convey meaning within an intended audience of specialists (which is it's own problem in my opinion), but nevertheless, back in the bad old days, there were quite the number of test pilots who felt that as time went on, the loosening of airworthyness standards from "strictly as written" was resulting in a slippery slope which was resulting in aircraft that were increasingly less capable of being fully understood by pilots, and potentially more dangerous in the event of substantial problems developing with their automation systems.

Obviously, we can see how history resolved that debate, but our forebearer's on the losing side of that argument sadly do win their "I told you so"s.

See the D.P. Davies Interviews with the Royal Aeronautical Society for more on that and some good listening.

https://www.aerosociety.com/news/audio-the-d-p-davies-interv...

https://www.aerosociety.com/news/audio-the-d-p-davies-interv...

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