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Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

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Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#491
post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Share buyback may be an advantage, but it doesn't necessarily reflect on the price of the stock. In other words, a company can buy its own stock and price can fall anyway (see for example GE). This cannot happen with money deposited on your account.

You’re conflating daily price action and the balance sheet. From a pure financial perspective, the stock price is reduced by exactly the amount of the dividend and nothing is reduced if a company doesn’t pay a dividend. Everything else is the typical movement of any stock, that of course can be detached from reality. The thing is: people are way too focused on the dividend part as if this was the only valid way to in…

Traditional investing focused on dividends for a good reason: you can live on dividends without paying long term capital gains (taxes on dividends are usually lower). At a time when most investors were common folks trying to make a long term investment decision, this was a good thing. Moreover, companies that pay dividends are by definition more mature, which can be a good sign for some investors that want more predictability in their portfolios. The reality is that dividend-based investment has its advantages, which were forgotten by the current generation of investors.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#492
post #482
post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not quite accurate. A company is ultimately controlled by it’s owners who may prefer dividends. One possible example is maintaining the current ownership structure while providing an income. Think someone owning 51% and wishing to maintain control.

> A company is ultimately controlled by it’s owners who may prefer dividends. If the reason they "prefer" dividends is not because they evaluated the alternatives and decided that the risk-return profile was favorable (for the company, not for themselves in particular)), then they are acting against the interests of the minority shareholders. That may carry legal consequences or not, depending on your jurisdiction. I…

In practice protection for majority shareholders does not extend to a preference of dividends over investments in any jurisdiction. All investments carry risks, dividends don’t so the only legal justification required is to select a low risk threshold. Such protections are designed to avoid selling off assets at below market rates to majority shareholders and other such clearly suboptimal choices.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#494
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the problem with real estate is that it's work. Even if you hire a management company (which does hit your profit), shit like bad tenants can really screw you up, if only in term of time spent on paperwork and legal garbage. In the best case scenario it's low (but not zero) work, but in the worse case it's a LOT of work.

Get LEGAL Indian immigrants as tenants. Especially the ones with tech related jobs. We always pay our rent. We dont want bad credit. We keep things normal.

The rent's the easy part. It's what happens to the apartment, neighbor complains, etc that matters (and race doesn't really matter for this, everyone's capable to be assholes in their own way).

Plus picking tenants based on race is quite illegal.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which platform do you use, if you don't mind me asking?

Vanguard and Schwab, with an increase move of capital to Schwab. They allow more advanced trading like options (no, I'm not that crazy - yet), shorting, buying and selling in the same day, etc, that Vanguard doesn't even support. Also, there's a downloadable web client that lets you create complex If Then type conditions, as well as aggregate news and customize dashboards and a bunch of other stuff. I'm not that acti…

Where did you learn swing trading?

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#496
post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not 4% ROI, it's 4% withdrawal rate. And even that is not super safe if you're retiring for many decades (the RE part). You can use a variety of online calculators to back test a 4% withdrawal rate - maybe 80% safe, but 20% of the time you'll go broke before dying.

Why isn't it safe? Or where can I read more on that?

Sure, so there's a few things to look at.

The first is going back to the origins of the 4% number in the first place, the trinity study. The parameters for that were a 30 year retirement period, and success was "not completely run out of money after 30 years, 95% of the time". If you extrapolate from that original study, if you retire for more than 30 years (FIRE includes retiring early), success drops from 95%.

There's articles exploring that, e.g.

https://www.fiphysician.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-early-retir...

https://www.madfientist.com/safe-withdrawal-rate/#:~:text=Th...

And then there are a variety of online calculators where you can play with the numbers yourself.

The other elephant in the room is pre-Medicare healthcare costs.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please stay away from leverage equity index funds. https://capitalallocatorspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017... Edit: For more clarity - risk parity can make sense, but I don't think you ever need to use leverage on your equities to get risk parity. The fundamental insight of risk parity investing is that at commonly recommended ratios (50/50, 60/40) the risk (variance) from equities totally dominates the risk fro…

Please read the write-up before replying with blanket statements that aren't relevant in this case :) That issue is addressed in the bogleheads post explicitly ("How much does the leverage cost?" and "Don't you know that leveraged ETFs are only intended to be held for one day?"), basically the ETFs are risk parity adjusted, and the volatility in the ETFs actually what generates the returns. The strategy makes money f…

I appreciate your measured response. I certainly had not dug deep into these daily 3X funds, as the daily/drag aspect seemed (seems?) clearly a problem. But, I can't just pretend the 10yr history of UPRO doesn't exist. I'll have to think more about this.

If it were possible (I recognize it isn't, due to margin limits), would it not be better to be 3x leveraged in your margin account, and simply buy the basic S&P and bond products? Wouldn't that avoid the "drag", and you'd end up better off?

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please read the write-up before replying with blanket statements that aren't relevant in this case :) That issue is addressed in the bogleheads post explicitly ("How much does the leverage cost?" and "Don't you know that leveraged ETFs are only intended to be held for one day?"), basically the ETFs are risk parity adjusted, and the volatility in the ETFs actually what generates the returns. The strategy makes money f…

I've been using 3x ETFs for the past few years to pursue a Permanent Portfolio style strategy in one account, and an All Weather strategy in another, rebalance annually, and both have been doing well. Low net volatility, high returns. Backtesting of the strategy shows total returns just under 3x the return of the unleveraged portfolios, just what I expect given the leverage costs. I expect both strategies to be both…

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Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#499
post #65

I recently bought muni bond funds and SLV to hedge on inflation. PMO pays a nearly 5% dividend which is tax free. I'll take that over a 1% savings account (with taxes) any day.

AMZN has made a 75% return this year, and you're buying municipal bonds ? Someone is _really_ risk adverse ...

key word, recently. As in, within a week. I realized a nearly 80% gain on my AMZN shares, and 50% on MDB shares, and a bunch of other wins as I managed to call the bottom of the V pretty well.

However, with the nasdaq fully recovered, yes I am realizing some gains and taking a more defensive position.

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