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Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

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Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#351

Post by itsoktocry »

throw0101a wrote: post #159
mancerayder wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and not only that, but the index funds a skewed towards entities with large market caps. Someone could make their own "index fund" with 10% of it allocated to FAANG, maybe 20% of it in the largest tech names overall, and then a distribution of the largest market cap names, and lo and behold, one has an s&p 500 "index fund". Tesla's about to be added to the S&P 500. There are strong opinions on both sides - it's…

> Yes, and not only that, but the index funds a skewed towards entities with large market caps. There are index funds of every publicly traded company in the US: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_3000_Index Vanguard themselves have changed things so that employees no longer have the option of choosing the S&P 500 fund in their own retirement accounts, but rather the Total Market fund: * https://www.marketwatch.…

>Anyone investing in equities is just in it for the ride, as it is impossible to predict what will happen

So people like Jim Simons are merely the luckiest people alive?

The average person earns the average market return, less fees; that's a tautology. Unless you have some reason to believe you aren't average, most people are better off following your advice. It's what I do, personally.

But the idea that no one is winning at this game flies in the face of a lot of evidence.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#352

Post by hydroreadsstuff »

sawaruna wrote: post #204
hydroreadsstuff wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The historic worst case for the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 is not being up from 1929 - 1987 - 58 years. https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat... Edit: This ignores dividend reinvestment as ummonk noted. https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1900 suggests 1929 - 1944 was probably the longest time. We are in unprecedented times. Highest debt, lowest bond yields, crazy P/Es, historic GDP…

Any examples of those mining lenders you mentioned?

I like GDX as it contains both these and miners. FNV, WPM, SAND. There should be a lot more. The problem is that they are already extremely pricy. All gold related stocks had quite the ralley in 2020.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#353

Post by qorrect »

ifdefdebug wrote: post #274
qorrect wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Visit them first! I really did not like Malta, I would 100% go with Portugal, or Spain/Madeira.

Madeira is not a country, it's part of Portugal.

Sorry I meant the Canary Islands , a part of Spain.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#354

Post by itsoktocry »

marvin wrote: post #208
mancerayder wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and not only that, but the index funds a skewed towards entities with large market caps. Someone could make their own "index fund" with 10% of it allocated to FAANG, maybe 20% of it in the largest tech names overall, and then a distribution of the largest market cap names, and lo and behold, one has an s&p 500 "index fund". Tesla's about to be added to the S&P 500. There are strong opinions on both sides - it's…

Index funds are strongly a momentum investment strategy. I don’t see this appreciated so often. But of course, a properly diversified index fund portfolio contains much more than just the S&P500. Mine has some thousand global stocks, on the order of 5000.

Yeah, one of the oddest arguments I see from EMH pumpers is "dude, just by SPY, you can't beat the market".

SPY is hardly diversified. A far better and pretty easy portfolio consists of a global financial assets allocation: US stocks and bonds, developed world ex-US stocks and bonds, emerging markets stocks and bonds, real estate and commodities. 10-12 ETFs will do it.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#355

Post by hlfy_hn »

"I have about $50K in an index fund, own land worth $150K (paid off) and another $200K in industrial real estate investments."

1. I don't like Index funds. They were a great investment in the past. They may be a disaster in the future.

2. "buy land they stopped making it" Mark Twain

3. "industrial real estate" could be top, could be a disaster, depending on what "industrial" means. Technology heavy REIT (IT, server, g5 infrastructure) could be okay.

You could go contrarian and keep it cash. You could diversify in foreign currencies. In the end, HN is not the right place to ask. I just recently invested in some Asian utilities companies. They pay 5-10% divendends. Have a telecom investment that pays 45% dividends. No kidding.

One word of wisdom: Do not do VC investments. I sunk a ton of money there. In for a penny, in for a dime and it will start sucking a tremendous amount of time out of you.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#356

Post by perardi »

hlfy_hn wrote: post #355

"I have about $50K in an index fund, own land worth $150K (paid off) and another $200K in industrial real estate investments." 1. I don't like Index funds. They were a great investment in the past. They may be a disaster in the future. 2. "buy land they stopped making it" Mark Twain 3. "industrial real estate" could be top, could be a disaster, depending on what "industrial" means. Technology heavy REIT (IT, server,…

“I don't like Index funds. They were a great investment in the past. They may be a disaster in the future.”

Care to explain?

Are you worried about over-centralizing assets into index funds will screw with the market's ability to find the right prices for stocks?

Because I worry about that myself, but, then, what do you do? How do I possibly outsmart the market given the information problem?

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#357

Post by monktastic1 »

alex_sikora wrote: post #246
nemild wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One more to add is Reddit's Personal Finance, where this question gets asked a lot. The wiki (second link, search for Windfall) esp has a number of great articles on topics like this. https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/ https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/wiki/index

I'd probably recommend https://old.reddit.com/r/FatFIRE over /r/pf as it's more likely to have people that have experienced getting a large lump sum like this.

FatFIRE is for people who want to live large off their savings (usually understood as >$100k/yr passive income, which generally requires $2.5M+ in invested assets). That doesn't seem to describe OP's position. If FIRE is an interest, then https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/ is a better bet.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#358

Post by Retric »

lmnice wrote: post #307
betterunix2 wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, companies with long histories of sustained and rising dividend payments also tend to outperform the S&P500 in terms of total return (dividends + capital gains), and do so with lower volatility. Reasons include having a business that is profitable and stable enough to sustain such payouts and a management culture that appropriately balances shareholder interest (by paying dividend) against the long-…

Just a nitpick: > a management culture that appropriately balances shareholder interest (by paying dividend) In theory a company should invest in whatever has the most favorable risk-return profile. If it pays dividends, that means dividends are judged by management to be the best risk-return profile among all other alternatives. A company can pay zero dividends and still protect shareholders interests.

That’s not quite accurate. A company is ultimately controlled by it’s owners who may prefer dividends. One possible example is maintaining the current ownership structure while providing an income. Think someone owning 51% and wishing to maintain control.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#360

Post by overcast »

Sschellbach wrote: post #291
overcast wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So? You could have dumped money into ANY of the big tech four months ago and been up WAY more than 30%. The S&P500 index alone is up more than 30% since the crash. Bitcoin peaked at 20k in December of 2017, and dropped to $3100 exactly a year later. Seems like anyone investing at the top, and there were LOTS of inexperienced mom and pops doing so, are down at minimum 50%. Without any type of dividends or stock in a r…

Do you actually think there was a lot of volume for Bitcoin at 20k? A handful of people even bought Bitcoin at the 20k level. It was only trading at prices that high for a few hours

Yes I do. Significantly more so than the weeks/years since. There was weeks and weeks of heavy volume, as it declined to $3000. If you bought over $10k, you've had money tied up doing nothing for 2.5 years in nonsense. Prices don't go parabolic like that unless dumb money gets involved, and subsequently wiped out.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/73konLcD/

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