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Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

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Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#92
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an index fund skeptic. What would happen in a world where everyone invested in index funds? Capital allocation would go haywire. You can't create value out of nothing. ISTM that the more people push on index funds, the more overvalued equities in the index become relative to those outside the index. I'm not sure that retrospective analysis saying index funds are the best applies going forward in a world where ind…

Not the op but I wish downvoters would comment giving their reasons. I remember seeing something about this in the atlantic a while back, and it would be good to know if/why it's a bad argument.

There's this weird social energy surrounding index funds that's very aggressive about preaching that they're the only viable option and that everything else is ridiculous. To be honest, this energy is another input that increases my skepticism of the whole thing. These days, whenever you see an argument downvoted instead of rebutted, there's likely something to it.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#95
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an index fund skeptic. What would happen in a world where everyone invested in index funds? Capital allocation would go haywire. You can't create value out of nothing. ISTM that the more people push on index funds, the more overvalued equities in the index become relative to those outside the index. I'm not sure that retrospective analysis saying index funds are the best applies going forward in a world where ind…

Not the op but I wish downvoters would comment giving their reasons. I remember seeing something about this in the atlantic a while back, and it would be good to know if/why it's a bad argument.

I bet skeptics would say that if you steer people away from index funds, then they may put it in high fee active index funds that generate about the same return as the passive index funds.

Personally, I think that as more people put their money into index funds, active funds may look more attractive as they can potentially exploit market misprices quicker than passive funds can, but that's just me.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#96
post #13

What’s your goal? That’s the first question that needs to be answered here before trying to identify an investment strategy.

Investment managers always ask this question and I never know what to answer. I feel like everyone's answer must be the same: maximize return, minimize risk.

What are possible answers to this question you're looking for?

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#97
post #4

Cash out refi everything you can. At 3%, 30 year fixed, with fed target inflation rates of 2-3%, you’ll need a If you can’t get that with passive investments over the next 30 years, the banks will have bigger problems than your loan. Despite your risk aversion, consider putting some in a robo advisor (mix of bonds, index, foreign index, etc), to hedge against a spike in inflation, or a crash of just the US economy. T…

I moved my cash from Wealthfront to Marcus, I think their rate is 1.05% right now?

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#98
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an index fund skeptic. What would happen in a world where everyone invested in index funds? Capital allocation would go haywire. You can't create value out of nothing. ISTM that the more people push on index funds, the more overvalued equities in the index become relative to those outside the index. I'm not sure that retrospective analysis saying index funds are the best applies going forward in a world where ind…

Not the op but I wish downvoters would comment giving their reasons. I remember seeing something about this in the atlantic a while back, and it would be good to know if/why it's a bad argument.

Not a downvoter (nor a financial expert) but to check the argument seems at least reasonable to check whether the proportional return of Vanguard funds has decreased as the fractional amount of money invested with them vs. the total stock market has increased. Seems unlikely the answer is yes (probably because in fact you are not investing in "nothing" -- there's value in having money itself, same as interest at a bank, and you are investing in giving that money to lots of companies, not just one, and that's what you're making profit off of. So long as money generates money, why should the return taper off?)

Probably an interesting number itself knowing what the fractional amount of money flowing through Vanguard is as a proportion of the total.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#99
post #13

What’s your goal? That’s the first question that needs to be answered here before trying to identify an investment strategy.

Investment managers always ask this question and I never know what to answer. I feel like everyone's answer must be the same: maximize return, minimize risk. What are possible answers to this question you're looking for?

You could be interested in retiring early (or immediately), or you could be interested in buying property overseas and spending your winters in Spain.

Also "minimize risk" is not consistent with "maximize return" so that's not even a valid answer. Someone might say "I wanna put it all on Black", and someone else might be saving for their child. Lots of really varied answers are possible.

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