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Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

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Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#1
I recently came into some money and now I have $450K in cash burning a hole in my pocket.

I have about $50K in an index fund, own land worth $150K (paid off) and another $200K in industrial real estate investments.

Given this spread, what should I do with the cash? I'm not comfortable investing the entirety into an index fund, given the current socio-political climate.

I'm located in the Midwest, USA.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#4
Cash out refi everything you can. At 3%, 30 year fixed, with fed target inflation rates of 2-3%, you’ll need a If you can’t get that with passive investments over the next 30 years, the banks will have bigger problems than your loan.

Despite your risk aversion, consider putting some in a robo advisor (mix of bonds, index, foreign index, etc), to hedge against a spike in inflation, or a crash of just the US economy. The dollar has been falling recently. The robo will auto rebalance as the economic climate shifts.

As for the cash holding, you can at least get 0.35% at Wealthfront in a cash account. (Does anyone know of a higher return cash account?)

Bond yields are slightly higher, but not much these days.

I’m in a similar position, and am also betting on a crash soon.

I have been putting 2-5% into a robo every few weeks (when the market flinches). It’s been a bad strategy (I should have gone all in a month or so ago), but it’s better than 100% cash. If the market hasn’t crashed in a year or so, I’ll be all in.

I bet against the market for most of the Obama administration (because the bailout / zero interest rates didn’t seem sustainable). Clearly, that was a mistake.

You can’t beat the fed, and right now, the fed is printing unlimited money to prop up ETFs and issuers of junk bonds. Also, investors are holding record amounts of cash, and are slowly putting it back into the market in seek of yields.

Good luck.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#6
post #4

Cash out refi everything you can. At 3%, 30 year fixed, with fed target inflation rates of 2-3%, you’ll need a If you can’t get that with passive investments over the next 30 years, the banks will have bigger problems than your loan. Despite your risk aversion, consider putting some in a robo advisor (mix of bonds, index, foreign index, etc), to hedge against a spike in inflation, or a crash of just the US economy. T…

There are tons of high-yield savings accounts paying much more than 0.35%.

Telling people to increase their indebtedness to buy index funds right now is pretty dubious advice.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#8
post #4

Cash out refi everything you can. At 3%, 30 year fixed, with fed target inflation rates of 2-3%, you’ll need a If you can’t get that with passive investments over the next 30 years, the banks will have bigger problems than your loan. Despite your risk aversion, consider putting some in a robo advisor (mix of bonds, index, foreign index, etc), to hedge against a spike in inflation, or a crash of just the US economy. T…

I haven’t done a ton of research, but I know for certain that Ally Bank and Discover Bank offer better rates than 0.35% in their savings accounts.

Re: Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?

#9
post #4

Cash out refi everything you can. At 3%, 30 year fixed, with fed target inflation rates of 2-3%, you’ll need a If you can’t get that with passive investments over the next 30 years, the banks will have bigger problems than your loan. Despite your risk aversion, consider putting some in a robo advisor (mix of bonds, index, foreign index, etc), to hedge against a spike in inflation, or a crash of just the US economy. T…

If you're betting on a crash soon, why not just hedge your existing positions on long dated PUT options? That's what they are for , insurance.

As far as OP is concerned, there's not much point into cashing everything if the timescale is greater than 5+ years for needing any of it. Trying to time the market is just a fools game, consistent investments in the indexes always works out in your favor long term.

Regarding interest rates, .35% is pretty poor, just off the top of my head Marcus is over 1%.

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