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Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

hongkongfp.com

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Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#81

Post by dirtyid »

yashap wrote: post #73
mywittyname wrote: post #70

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

There have been plenty of successful, peaceful-ish secessions in history. Off the top of my head, the British Empire mostly dissolved semi-peacefully, which was basically a tonne of secessions. Norway essentially seceded from Sweden. Russia didn’t fight TOO hard against the fall of the USSR. You could argue Brexit is a secession of sorts. I’m sure there are more. Not that there wasn’t plenty of protest, struggle and…

HK doesn't pay tax to central government, and is too close and too small to secede as long as mainland has some semblance of cohesive power, UK admitted China could roll over HK in the mid 80s if they wanted to + the lesson politburo learned from USSR's collapse is to not fragment at any cost. To the mainland, HK is not a unwieldy, far flung holding that takes commiserate projection to tame. It's a small city of 7million located less than 100km of Southern Theater Command.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#82

Post by keiferski »

BelleOfTheBall wrote: post #77
keiferski wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wong actually explicitly says he is against secession in the book, but I doubt that detail is relevant for a motivated prosecutor.

What is his plan for Hong Kong moving forward? I'd be interested to see what a local activist thinks could be a solution to their "China problem", especially considering that a country as big and powerful isn't going to simply back off. His fight is a tough one and I have great respect for a person so young to commit to it so fully.

The book came out in February but at the moment he seems to be running for the legislature. His overall strategy seems to be to drum up international support for HK democracy, which will then (in theory) pressure the CCP.

He intends to run in a primary for the pro-democracy camp that will choose candidates for the Legislative Council vote on Sept. 6.

"If more people vote for us ... it could generate more pressure and more hesitation for Beijing," Wong said, in front of campaign posters with the slogan "Ballot, or bullet."

Wong has said he supports the idea of a non-binding referendum for people to have a say over Hong Kong’s future but that he is against independence.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-joshua-...

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#83

Post by luckylion »

paulcarroty wrote: post #67
ponker wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was always an inevitability. China could ostensibly take territory from any of its neighbors except Russia. The idea that a small island would be able to stay independent was temporary.

Just checked his comments - 99% of Chinese propaganda, don't feed the troll.

This is a lie, as anyone looking at the comments of the parent can clearly see.

Please stop doing this kind of stuff.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#85

Post by dahdum »

bigpumpkin wrote: post #79
mywittyname wrote: post #70

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

"I feel like their only hope would be if America deployed troops to HK and kept the city fed via air supply like with Berlin." I think positioning 100,000 American troops would deter the CCP. Given the New Territories is connected to the mainland, I would position them all on Hong Kong Island to defend against any potential naval invasion. When the invasion occurs, America would then mobilize its naval assets closer…

> I think positioning 100,000 American troops would deter the CCP. Given the New Territories is connected to the mainland, I would position them all on Hong Kong Island to defend against any potential naval invasion.

That's not positioning, that's an outright invasion and occupation of China. Now that they've become such a global power they'd never back down from that fight.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#86

Post by dirtyid »

keiferski wrote: post #61
supernova87a wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Careful... under the new HK security laws, you might be at risk for financially supporting or abetting someone involved in secessionist activities! (kidding, but not completely -- read Article 21: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Law_of_the_People%27s_Republi... )

Wong actually explicitly says he is against secession in the book, but I doubt that detail is relevant for a motivated prosecutor.

TBH Wong's never going to get a chance to run, I doubt he's even allowed to leave the country after the security laws. The dude testified on the US congress to advocate against Chinese interests - aka treason - he's going to be the first on the chopping block when opportunity arises.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#87

Post by dang »

paulcarroty wrote: post #67
ponker wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was always an inevitability. China could ostensibly take territory from any of its neighbors except Russia. The idea that a small island would be able to stay independent was temporary.

Just checked his comments - 99% of Chinese propaganda, don't feed the troll.

This breaks the site guidelines. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#88

Post by bllguo »

yashap wrote: post #73
mywittyname wrote: post #70

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

There have been plenty of successful, peaceful-ish secessions in history. Off the top of my head, the British Empire mostly dissolved semi-peacefully, which was basically a tonne of secessions. Norway essentially seceded from Sweden. Russia didn’t fight TOO hard against the fall of the USSR. You could argue Brexit is a secession of sorts. I’m sure there are more. Not that there wasn’t plenty of protest, struggle and…

I'm not sure if you've seen a map of the region? I don't understand how you can have an understanding of the geography and claim HK independence is feasible. Even in this impossible scenario, economically it would be ruined beyond repair.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#89

Post by ngcc_hk »

supernova87a wrote: post #59
keiferski wrote: post #58

I recently purchased Unfree Speech by Joshua Wong, a prominent Hong Kong activist who was imprisoned for 6 months (at the age of 20) for his political activity. I recommend it, as it is a pretty informal, quick read. It felt...odd...reading a contemporary story about political imprisonment. Somehow the term itself feels antiquated, but alas here we are.

Careful... under the new HK security laws, you might be at risk for financially supporting or abetting someone involved in secessionist activities! (kidding, but not completely -- read Article 21: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Law_of_the_People%27s_Republi... )

Yes and probably anything they thought is wrong is subject to their law. Self censorship and afraid of them is what they want. Gradually one may even internalise that and report one’s neigbhour even.

From free to slave, from Hk to mainland, from anti- to love of your master. That is how they want Hk becomes.

It is not because we see any hope we fight. Be water, my friend.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#90

Post by FabHK »

yashap wrote: post #73
mywittyname wrote: post #70

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

There have been plenty of successful, peaceful-ish secessions in history. Off the top of my head, the British Empire mostly dissolved semi-peacefully, which was basically a tonne of secessions. Norway essentially seceded from Sweden. Russia didn’t fight TOO hard against the fall of the USSR. You could argue Brexit is a secession of sorts. I’m sure there are more. Not that there wasn’t plenty of protest, struggle and…

I think the point of the OP is that HK is in a fairly bad situation to survive as an independent state with one potentially hostile neighbour. Nearly 80% of HK's water supply is imported from China [1]. Only about a quarter of food imports are from China [2], so the situation there is better. But what if China were to close the land borders and impose a maritime blockade? It wouldn't be pretty.

When Japan invaded Hong Kong [3] in 1941 during WW II, the city fell after a bit more than two weeks.

Lastly, China is for historical reasons extremely protective of its territorial integrity (because loss of land often presaged the demise of a dynasty and subsequent disarray, and the touchy "century of humiliation" during which many territories were conceded to foreign powers [3b]), as you can see in its attitude towards Tibet, Xinjiang, Taiwan (China promulgated a specific law in 2005 authorising "non-peaceful means" if Taiwan seceded [4]), and HK and Macao. (See [5] on the contrast of the CCP vs western attitudes - not only can Californians discuss secession if they so wish, but Scotland, Quebec, etc. could vote on secession. Unthinkable in China.)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supply_and_sanitation_in...

[2] https://hkfoodworks.com/research/food-supply/

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Hong_Kong

[3b] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/29/asia/china-separatism-ind...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Secession_Law

[5] https://www.chinalawblog.com/2020/06/on-secession.html

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