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Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

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Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#71
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was always an inevitability. China could ostensibly take territory from any of its neighbors except Russia. The idea that a small island would be able to stay independent was temporary.

What "small island" ? I think you are confusing Hong Kong with Taiwan.

yep I was. China will also take Taiwan when they feel like it, Crimea-style.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#72
post #42

When the Hong Kong stock exchange listed a Chinese tech index the other day I realised Hong Kong had completely fallen. The CCP rules Hong Kong in totality now as far as I'm concerned.

Mainland Chinese stocks have been listed on HKEX and even been components of the Hang Seng Index (kind of like our SP500) for a long time. The main reason that there aren't more HK stocks in the tech index is that there aren't really any HK based tech companies listed on our exchange.

...are there any HK tech companies?

Slightly facetious but HK really dropped the ball in not chasing tech IMO

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#73

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

There have been plenty of successful, peaceful-ish secessions in history. Off the top of my head, the British Empire mostly dissolved semi-peacefully, which was basically a tonne of secessions. Norway essentially seceded from Sweden. Russia didn’t fight TOO hard against the fall of the USSR. You could argue Brexit is a secession of sorts. I’m sure there are more.

Not that there wasn’t plenty of protest, struggle and loss of life in things like the dissolving of the British Empire and USSR, but the more powerful actor did eventually give up, vs. simply saying “we have the bigger army, we’re gonna crush you.”

In most cases, there was extended protest, to the point where popular opinion shifted over time to heavily support secessionists, and the colony/whatever became an expensive inconvenience, that wasn’t worth the tax revenue. Hong Kong are probably hoping that eventually the same thing will happen with them.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#74

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

Honestly- best case scenerio as measured by reduction of humor life loss, a great urban flight similar to what happened to Detroit is the best option.

Exhile

By doing so, the value of hk is lost (economic powerhouse loss and brain drain)

And the hk people can retain their freedom.

Along that train of thought, the UK offer for naturalization makes sense, and the US would greatly benefit from such a process.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#75
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What "small island" ? I think you are confusing Hong Kong with Taiwan.

yep I was. China will also take Taiwan when they feel like it, Crimea-style.

I bet (money) they won't.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Careful... under the new HK security laws, you might be at risk for financially supporting or abetting someone involved in secessionist activities! (kidding, but not completely -- read Article 21: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Law_of_the_People%27s_Republi... )

Wong actually explicitly says he is against secession in the book, but I doubt that detail is relevant for a motivated prosecutor.

What is his plan for Hong Kong moving forward? I'd be interested to see what a local activist thinks could be a solution to their "China problem", especially considering that a country as big and powerful isn't going to simply back off. His fight is a tough one and I have great respect for a person so young to commit to it so fully.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#78
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yep I was. China will also take Taiwan when they feel like it, Crimea-style.

I bet (money) they won't.

then it will because they don't feel like it, the same way that the US does not really want to take over Canada.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#79

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

"I feel like their only hope would be if America deployed troops to HK and kept the city fed via air supply like with Berlin."

I think positioning 100,000 American troops would deter the CCP. Given the New Territories is connected to the mainland, I would position them all on Hong Kong Island to defend against any potential naval invasion.

When the invasion occurs, America would then mobilize its naval assets closer to Hong Kong and bombard any amphibious landings.

Given America's naval superiority, China would not want to engage in a decisive naval battle.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#80
post #73

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

There have been plenty of successful, peaceful-ish secessions in history. Off the top of my head, the British Empire mostly dissolved semi-peacefully, which was basically a tonne of secessions. Norway essentially seceded from Sweden. Russia didn’t fight TOO hard against the fall of the USSR. You could argue Brexit is a secession of sorts. I’m sure there are more. Not that there wasn’t plenty of protest, struggle and…

British empire was over-extended over the whole of the world.

This is a small area bordering close a billion people area.

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