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ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

reuters.com

71–80 of 204 posts

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#71
post #57
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI and tech team evaluated by NSA Suppose that PRC considers to open the GFW but with the same requirements (AI and tech team evaluated by MSS). Would that be acceptable?

That sounds like a good deal. I will ask my higher ups.

[deleted]

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#72
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apps are easy to install... and easy to uninstall. Where's Snapchat these days? What about Vine? What about tumblr? These companies make apps to try to monetize a community, but communities are fickle and easy to scare off. If I were an investor, I'd value these apps for the computers in their offices and the code their developers write and that's it. Maybe $100mil if you get me on a good day. You can't value them fo…

I definitely empathize with your position on this, and you're right that community is the valuable part, hence the focus around active users. What makes TikTok unique beyond growing like wildfire: their monetization strategy will be easier (the social aspect leads to relevant advertising), and their community is more stable! The stable community is driven in part by their algorithms, which replace Instagram and Faceb…

>The stable community is driven in part by their algorithms, which replace Instagram and Facebook's idea of a feed of those you follow. It gives more power to TikTok, in that you won't notice if some members of the community leave, and they can continue showing you content you'll enjoy from millions of other users.

The endurance of Facebook, Instagram, Youtube and Twitter is the precisely because of the connect/subscribe/follow model.

Algorithmic content from random creators is not a model for creating an enduring user base. Users will eventually get desensitised to it and leave. There's a limit to how many memes you can consume.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everyone young uses tiktok. It's much bigger than snap could have ever hoped. Interestingly, you'd think that, but it's dead wrong. I'd say about a quarter of people actually use tick tock, compared to almost all using instagram or snap chat. There's a "subculture" of people that use it and are massively active, and most others don't use it at all. This strikes me as a massive impediment to tick tock's growth in Am…

I'd rather have my data used by an "autocracy" on the other side of the ocean that can't reach me, then by a "democracy" that can get me and make mu life hell. If that foreign "autocracy" is an enemy of the "democracy", even better, since they are then less likely to ever share my data.

> can't reach me

She absolutely can if you are of any interest to her. See this talk by FBI director Christopher Wray that discusses Chinese influence operations against Americans: https://www.c-span.org/video/?473658-1/fbi-director-wray-chi...

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everyone young uses tiktok. It's much bigger than snap could have ever hoped. Interestingly, you'd think that, but it's dead wrong. I'd say about a quarter of people actually use tick tock, compared to almost all using instagram or snap chat. There's a "subculture" of people that use it and are massively active, and most others don't use it at all. This strikes me as a massive impediment to tick tock's growth in Am…

I'd rather have my data used by an "autocracy" on the other side of the ocean that can't reach me, then by a "democracy" that can get me and make mu life hell. If that foreign "autocracy" is an enemy of the "democracy", even better, since they are then less likely to ever share my data.

How has your life been made hell? Why would you support a far-away dictatorship?

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#75
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I definitely empathize with your position on this, and you're right that community is the valuable part, hence the focus around active users. What makes TikTok unique beyond growing like wildfire: their monetization strategy will be easier (the social aspect leads to relevant advertising), and their community is more stable! The stable community is driven in part by their algorithms, which replace Instagram and Faceb…

>The stable community is driven in part by their algorithms, which replace Instagram and Facebook's idea of a feed of those you follow. It gives more power to TikTok, in that you won't notice if some members of the community leave, and they can continue showing you content you'll enjoy from millions of other users. The endurance of Facebook, Instagram, Youtube and Twitter is the precisely because of the connect/subsc…

> Algorithmic content from random creators is not a model for creating an enduring user base. Users will eventually get desensitised to it and leave. There's a limit to how many memes you can consume.

Another thing about these users in this specific demographic always eventually do is they just grow out of it and leave for something else. Or perhaps what was 'hot' in 2020 is now 'not' in 2021.

They'll just flock to the next social network rocket ship until either it runs out of fuel or if the liftoff (momentum) is too slow. Which ever event happens, it's the beginning of the death of the social network's growth.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#76
post #67
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, from the article: "The investors’ bid values TikTok at 50 times its projected 2020 revenue of about $1 billion..." So that's a projected revenue growth of 465%. That's still projected , but a big number.

Projected revenue for 2021 is $6b. $50B valuation is robbery at day sight by investors. TikTok's China sibling Douyin is projected to make $28 billion this year in China.

Astonishing - I take it tiktok is quite heavy on video advertising then? I'm surprised to see the advertising market be so lucrative within China.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#77
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everyone young uses tiktok. It's much bigger than snap could have ever hoped. Interestingly, you'd think that, but it's dead wrong. I'd say about a quarter of people actually use tick tock, compared to almost all using instagram or snap chat. There's a "subculture" of people that use it and are massively active, and most others don't use it at all. This strikes me as a massive impediment to tick tock's growth in Am…

> Interestingly, you'd think that, but it's dead wrong. I'd say about a quarter of people actually use tick tock, compared to almost all using instagram or snap chat. They said everybody young uses tiktok. While that's obviously an exaggeration it currently is the number 1 most downloaded app on iOS and Android by quite a long way. It's only 300M behind the all time number of Instagram downloads on all platforms (1.8…

> They said everybody young uses tiktok

I'm speaking as a very young person, there seems to be a small group (about a quarter) who uses tick tock avidly. This is borne out by the data I could find, which showed approximately 22% usage among young people: https://morningconsult.com/form/more-young-teens-use-tiktok-...

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#80
post #57
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI and tech team evaluated by NSA Suppose that PRC considers to open the GFW but with the same requirements (AI and tech team evaluated by MSS). Would that be acceptable?

That sounds like a good deal. I will ask my higher ups.

That is a terrible deal, because it amounts to letting them clone your technology in depth.

On the other hand, until the US kicked over the table, the UK had a national security oversight centre for Huawei where people with UK security clearances performed code review ..

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