Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades
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Re: Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades
#2Financial Advisors say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Centuries.
Re: Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades
#3The original paper is here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6
I disagree with their approach and conclusion ("Deforestation will continue accelerating at the same rate forever! Technology will continue accelerating at the same rate forever! Population growth will continue at the same rate forever!"), which strikes me as being misguided in a classically Malthusian way. But the paper is worth taking a look at, as there is an interesting discussion of the Fermi paradox, where we lie on the Kardashev scale, and the possibility that societal collapse due to overconsumption of resources is the Great Filter[0].
Re: Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades
#4Two of them.
Re: Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades
#5The original paper is here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6 I disagree with their approach and conclusion ("Deforestation will continue accelerating at the same rate forever! Technology will continue accelerating at the same rate forever! Population growth will continue at the same rate forever!"), which strikes me as being misguided in a classically Malthusian way. But the paper is worth taking a…
Not sure a great filter is necessary.
The universe is probably brimming with life, there is just no way to travel such distances due to quality of life issues in interstellar space.
Also, energy required to actually communicate that you exist to the entire universe is star consuming...
Re: Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades
#6When even the theoretical physicists are sounding the alarm, it is past time to pay attention.
Re: Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades
#7When even the theoretical physicists are sounding the alarm, it is past time to pay attention.
The physicists in the article are trying to predict the behavior of Earth, by modeling it as a simple forest, and then adding some secondary terms to account for technology with the potential to improve humanity's access to energy. https://xkcd.com/793/
Re: Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades
#8So how come they didn't publish this in February?
Re: Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades
#9Why is it that physicists, along with economists, seem to be especially prone to ultracrepidarianism?
Re: Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades
#10So how come they didn't publish this in February?
The paper was received in November and published in May. The peer-review process usually takes at least months before a paper is published.