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Ludic Fallacy

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Re: Ludic Fallacy

#21

Post by redis_mlc »

sudhirj wrote: post #5

The nicest example of this I've seen is that Tim Ferris won a kickboxing championship without being a kickboxer, https://www.martialdevelopment.com/how-to-win-kickboxing-wro... The fallacy is that winning a world championship at kickboxing must mean that you're an excellent kickboxer, but nope.

I read the parent link, and here's some comments:

- if the fight was in China, big deal. They have a history of pre-MMA technique, so most of their styles are only for show. (That's what the fake Shaolin monk, Yi Long, has been demonstrating recently online, defeating leading traditional opponents using intermediate kickboxing techniques.)

- fights in China are fixed, so Tim winning anything was unlikely without connections/graft

- it takes a special kind of asshole to proclaim being a winning fighter by exploiting loopholes that way. I hope somebody punches and breaks his orbital ASAP.

Respected fighters wouldn't fight or spar with anybody who writes that way. Tim didn't prove anything, except that he's an asshole who can't be trusted.

You can learn more about MMA from inside China on Ramsey Dewey's Youtube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/user/balletman

If you want to see what world-class MMA fighting looks like today, search on Youtube for "UFC Khabib" or "UFC Israel Adesanya". They would destroy anybody inside China in seconds.

Re: Ludic Fallacy

#22

Post by amelius »

sudhirj wrote: post #5

The nicest example of this I've seen is that Tim Ferris won a kickboxing championship without being a kickboxer, https://www.martialdevelopment.com/how-to-win-kickboxing-wro... The fallacy is that winning a world championship at kickboxing must mean that you're an excellent kickboxer, but nope.

I think this is an example of a "N=1 fallacy".

Re: Ludic Fallacy

#23

Post by raxxorrax »

aaron695 wrote: post #13

I think The Emperor Wears No Clothes. This has no meaning. But it's vague and meaningless enough you can pull it out when you want to prove something involving statistics or models not working, which they mostly don't.

A case against hubris but also the next step to declare every written word as fallacious.

Re: Ludic Fallacy

#24

Post by quickthrower2 »

And yet companies make a fortune betting on markets or sports using those exact "Ludic Fallacy" models - like linear regressions, probability etc. They know it's real life, and many someone else is fixing the coin toss, but they can still get an advantage. In any real casino, 99 blacks in a row and they'd shut down the table.

Re: Ludic Fallacy

#25

Post by yesenadam »

buran77 wrote: post #14
sudhirj wrote: post #5

The nicest example of this I've seen is that Tim Ferris won a kickboxing championship without being a kickboxer, https://www.martialdevelopment.com/how-to-win-kickboxing-wro... The fallacy is that winning a world championship at kickboxing must mean that you're an excellent kickboxer, but nope.

I'm not sure what kind of championship that was but for an experienced fighter having a 30 pound "handicap" versus an inexperienced one should amount to no real life disadvantage. Don't underestimate what a 165 lbs person's tibia can do to a 195 lbs person's head on even thigh. There's no "hack" to not getting your lights knocked out with one punch/kick from a good fighter 30 lbs lighter than you. And tricking the we…

> an actual record of him winning that "Chinese Kickboxing National Championships 1999"

There appears to be some footage of it in this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODoVqXgblyw

Re: Ludic Fallacy

#26

Post by quickthrower2 »

aspenmayer wrote: post #19
buran77 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure what kind of championship that was but for an experienced fighter having a 30 pound "handicap" versus an inexperienced one should amount to no real life disadvantage. Don't underestimate what a 165 lbs person's tibia can do to a 195 lbs person's head on even thigh. There's no "hack" to not getting your lights knocked out with one punch/kick from a good fighter 30 lbs lighter than you. And tricking the we…

Thai kickboxing and BJJ isn’t a joke. Neither is physics and bone density increases through training, same with muscle fiber density and reaction time. I can go on. Training matters.

I've watched a Thai kickboxing match in Bangkok, and what amazed me, and I didn't expect is that the first few minutes are like dancing, no touching, then it slowly accelerates over say 30 minutes or something to a full out thing. If you can bend the rules in those first 5 minutes, even a sedate developer might stand a chance!

Re: Ludic Fallacy

#27

Post by yesenadam »

thom wrote: post #17
pmoriarty wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reminds me of Derren Brown (a magician) winning simultaneous chess games against grandmasters... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIAXIubSTkc

As in, he got another kickboxer to pretend to be him and fight in his place?

It's a fairly well-known trick where you play 2 strong players at the same time: You take the first player's move as white and play it yourself as white in the other game. So the two boards have the same position, with you playing different colours. That way you will have an even score in the 2 games. He did that with 4 pairs and the 9th was the head of the uni chess orgnisation, a weak player he beat easily.

Re: Ludic Fallacy

#28

Post by stared »

One core example of modeling something as a game is dating (as in "The Game" by Neil Strauss).

Two literal takes on that are:

- "Super Seducer: How to Talk to Grils" a (somewhat controversial) game on Steam by Richard La Ruina, a Pick-Up Artist - https://store.steampowered.com/app/695920/Super_Seducer__How...

- "If Dating was like Who Wants to be a Millionaire" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E33j3gQg98

While some analogies of a game are in place (depending on someone's action, it's "fail" or "progress"), I think that the worst fallacy is that one always can, and should, "win". Depending on the attitude, it is anything from frustrating (obsessing why one has failed despite the effort, or ending in a relationship with a wrong person) to outright dangerous.

Re: Ludic Fallacy

#29

Post by aspenmayer »

quickthrower2 wrote: post #26
aspenmayer wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thai kickboxing and BJJ isn’t a joke. Neither is physics and bone density increases through training, same with muscle fiber density and reaction time. I can go on. Training matters.

I've watched a Thai kickboxing match in Bangkok, and what amazed me, and I didn't expect is that the first few minutes are like dancing, no touching, then it slowly accelerates over say 30 minutes or something to a full out thing. If you can bend the rules in those first 5 minutes, even a sedate developer might stand a chance!

A dance is a pretty good metaphor for full contact sparring with a ref. Any other kind of fight, just don’t. Just get out of there. It’s not worth fighting over for long, if ever. The most OP fighting move is refusing to fight, opting not to strategically, and only fighting when absolutely necessary, like legally or morally necessary. Be like water. Support life and only crash when it’s time to rock and roll.

Re: Ludic Fallacy

#30

Post by sradman »

All models are simplifications of real-world phenomena, the question is how useful they are. Taleb’s Ludic Fallacy is a useful prod to remind us to consider our core assumptions.
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