Q2 2020 Update • Hacker News Board

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#251

Post by new_realist » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 3:45 AM UTC

itsoktocry wrote: post #6

The difference in the narrative versus the financial data is stark: Quarterly revenue has not shown any growth for nearly 2 years, despite introducing more models and expanding global deliveries. Their sales of regulatory credits this year is greater than all of the net income ever earned in their entire history.

Tesla’s sales of regulatory credits allow other manufacturers to pollute more. They are essentially a compliance car manufacturer for hire. By allowing other pollution the drivers of Tesla cars don’t reduce worldwide auto pollution. Worse, Tesla’s constant inefficient expansion of factories and inefficient use of labor creates more greenhouse gases than if Tesla never existed in the first place and other auto manufacturers had to improve their cars rather than buy indulgences.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#252

Post by jedberg » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 4:07 AM UTC

DanCarvajal wrote: post #191

jedberg wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla doesn't just make cars. They are really a battery company that happens to make cars that use their batteries, but they also make whole home batteries, which include recycling the ones from the cars, as well as solar panels to charge those batteries and charging systems that can be deployed to charge those batteries. I'm not saying the valuation makes sense, but to compare them to a car company doesn't make a to…

Nonsense. Tesla doesn't even make batteries, they pay Panasonic to make their batteries with some Chinese batteries on the side.

They designed the batteries that Panasonic makes exclusively for them and they are building their own cells in Fremont.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#253

Post by skinnymuch » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 4:54 AM UTC

jennyyang wrote: post #249

ckdarby wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My wife & I are considering our next vehicle our last non-electric one. We consider every vehicle brand a joke aside from Tesla.

There are many reasons why Tesla is not optimal. If you get into an accident, your car will be in the shop for months. Literally months. I have a Tesla with a minor trim at the bottom of the car got damaged. It took 3 months, and they had to take apart the entire car. Literally even the back seats were taken apart just to change the trim on the bottom. It cost over $10,000. Tesla's quality has dropped so much that JD…

I thought the JD rankings are known to be fraud with issues, pay to play, favoritism (especially American brands) and so on.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#254

Post by dingaling » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 5:45 AM UTC

kccqzy wrote: post #11

Off topic but why is the document written with painful amount of tracking? (By tracking I mean in the typography sense, i.e. letter spacing, not that the document is tracking you.) It almost seems like they don't want people to actually read the document.

That's kerning. Tracking is when you adjust the kerning equally to expand a word to fit a space.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#255

Post by shreyshrey » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 5:59 AM UTC

itsoktocry wrote: post #6

The difference in the narrative versus the financial data is stark: Quarterly revenue has not shown any growth for nearly 2 years, despite introducing more models and expanding global deliveries. Their sales of regulatory credits this year is greater than all of the net income ever earned in their entire history.

The price of the stock is more about the future than the past. The market thinks Tesla has enough moat to obliterate the competition in the future i think.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#256

Post by dang » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 6:16 AM UTC

grecy wrote: post #68

jennyyang wrote: post #13

Revenues down Year over Year, and yet their stock price is 8x. Profiability increased, but its market cap is larger than Toyota which has over 10x the revenues. This stock is truly one for /r/wallstreetbets.

[flagged]

Please don't post duplicate comments to HN. It strictly lowers the signal/noise ratio.

If you want to refer to what you posted elsewhere, a link is fine (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23825207), maybe with a description of what you're linking to.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#257

Post by contingencies » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 6:24 AM UTC

zaroth wrote: post #166

itsoktocry wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla posted positive free cash flow (CFO - capex) for 4 of the last 5 quarters Can you explain how their capex is decreasing as they build out more factories and invest in new technology? Seems odd, doesn't it? Yet is sure makes that cash flow number look good. These are the kinda things that analysts consider red flags. > it the only company with increase in # of deliveries among the 10 largest autos globally Do…

> Can you explain how their capex is decreasing Capital efficiency. It should not be surprising that a greenfield factory built in China based on a spec you iterated on in Fremont, CA results in a much higher $/Cars/Day, a.k.a capital efficiency. Iterating on a live line in Fremont, CA is significantly more costly. It's like $/sq ft. for renovating your house versus buying new. Also, look at the flow diagrams they've…

flow diagrams they've published on the floor layout and the path through a factory a car takes to go from start to finish in Fremont vs. GF3.

URL? I found a 2016 Fremont planned layout http://digital.olivesoftware.com/Olive/ODN/SanFranciscoChron... and a 2019 Fremont layout https://villanyautosok.hu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019_09... plus GF4 images https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipOVTM-avTBP0VMbqc3dynh6... No comparison of process flow, which would be very interesting. All I found was https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0173/8204/7844/articles/Te... which seems to have more to do with combining multiple buildings than altering process.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#258

Post by unixhero » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 7:11 AM UTC

Already__Taken wrote: post #207

realtalk_sp wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't have any significant monopolistic advantage and they're operating in a highly price-sensitive, competitive market. My personal theory is that Musk knows this and his real objective is to provoke car manufacturers into competing on electric. From Musk's point of view, the win is likely not Tesla making any significant amount of money for shareholders but instead it driving the whole market towards electric,…

I'm pretty sure musk had literally said this is not your theory. that's why there was there patent stunt. It not some plot rather being the change you want to see, a even if Tesla collapses they moved the EV needle.

Yes, this is exactly my point. Thanks.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#259

Post by downvoteme1 » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 8:15 AM UTC

ckastner wrote: post #89

marc__1 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla posted positive free cash flow (CFO - capex) for 4 of the last 5 quarters (page 24) and it the only company with increase in # of deliveries among the 10 largest autos globally (page 7). Gross margins >20% is also best in class in the auto industry The list goes on in terms of growth & profitability

> "The list goes on in terms of growth & profitability" It better. Tesla has a market cap of 4x that of VW, a car maker with €256bn revenue and ~€17bn profit in 2019. It is beyond me why anyone would buy this stock over VW, let alone pay 4x the price for it. Even if Tesla could put out 900K cars in a quarter instead of the current 90K, they'd still not come even close to the competition is terms of financial success.…

Tesla is in a spot similar to where Apple was in 2009. The iPhone was a well established product that differentiated itself from a sea of similar looking androids. The world was coming out of a big recession and the iPhone catapulted Apple into a trillion dollar market share in the next 10 years.

This is what Tesla investors hope for Tesla’s future. That ten years from now, there would be Tesla and all other car manufactures looking to emulate Tesla by producing a couple of electric models that would lack the features or refine of Tesla .

Tesla has a first mover advantage similar to what AWS had for the first 5 or so years.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#260

Post by abenga » Thu, Jul 23, 2020, 8:40 AM UTC

marvin wrote: post #220

_mog1 wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla hasn't proved that you can make a reasonable amount of profit compared to your investment when selling to that market. Hell, they haven't showed you can make any profit on that investment, they're still deep in the red. It would take them something like 10+ more years at their current income to even break even. Is it really such a surprise that companies that need to make money aren't dying to get into that mar…

Then, suddenly, the day arrives when battery tech has advanced to the point where it's obvious even to casual observers that battery tech is the future. Hell, it's the present by then. We're almost there. Battery tech is still following an exponential decline in price/performance. Problem is, now the rest of the industry is 10 years behind. They were hoping to just buy this tech from their suppliers, but so is everyo…

How is the Taycan 10 years behind any Tesla model?