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Q2 2020 Update

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Q2 2020 Update

#241

Post by ckdarby »

stingrae wrote: post #179
yoavm wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But why would they become the Apple of electric cars? Why do you think they have better chances than anyone else? The market, to me, seems to show that most people still buy non-electric cars. Once that flips, any other much bigger car manufacturer could start producing more electric cars. There doesn't seem to be any rocket science to it. Back in the 90s I bought a Rio PMP300. Before anyone knew what MP3s were, it w…

I do think Tesla is way over valued at the moment. How could they be worth more than the market cap of all the vehicle companies combined? There isn’t going to be largely more numbers of vehicles bought each year. As to why Tesla could be the winner? One reason is that all the other automakers are failing to produce mass market EVs that anyone wants to buy.

My wife & I are considering our next vehicle our last non-electric one.

We consider every vehicle brand a joke aside from Tesla.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#242

Post by SaltyLemonZest »

AlchemistCamp wrote: post #237
SaltyLemonZest wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many contexts where that's not a good market strategy. Movie theaters don't charge double for the opening night of Avengers movies, for example.

Out of curiosity, why don't they charge double during opening weekend? It seems like that would be a successful strategy.

I don't know, but I'd guess it's a combination of two things:

* It's tricky to message right. Most theaters do some dynamic pricing, with discounts for certain hours or certain days, but stronger or more complicated schemes inevitably start to come across as "we're taking more money out of your wallet just because we know you'll let us".

* Charging too high of a price can shift your market segment. Most movie theaters sell themselves as entertainment for the average Joe, and having special events with $50 tickets really undercuts that.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#243

Post by simonebrunozzi »

notJim wrote: post #236
xnx wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSLA is absolutely the present-day BTC.

I really need to get better at getting into these asset bubbles. I'm too late for Tesla, and it doesn't look like BTC has been going anywhere lately. Anyone got any tips for me?

I'm not sure if you're trying to be sarcastic, otherwise, I don't think a straight answer can be satisfactory for you.

Also, it might not be the best use of this forum.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#244

Post by yyy888sss »

pvelagal wrote: post #232

Regulatory credits ? I don’t understand the motivation behind them. How do selling and buying these help any emission standards ?

It's just a punitive tax on the producers of heavy emitters, with the proceed going to Tesla instead of the government. Tesla is treated very generously as their cars count as emitting 0g Co2, which is not the case unless they are recharged with renewable energy.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#245

Post by bryanlarsen »

Animats wrote: post #239
9nGQluzmnq3M wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are not normal times: flat sales during Q2 is quite an achievement when all your competition tanked by ~30%.

The question here is, what's it worth without assuming great future growth? Tesla is in the price range of BMW, in the midrange luxury segment. Assume they stay there. What's Tesla's value?

> Assume they stay there

Hopefully that assumption doesn't hold. Quoting from the earnings call:

"Our cars are not affordable enough—we need to fix that. We are making progress in that regard. We need to not go bankrupt, obviously, but we're not trying to be too profitable. One or 2 percent, it's not too crazy. Slightly profitable and maximize growth, making the cars as affordable as possible"

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#246

Post by dbsights »

tuatoru wrote: post #185
mamon wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Tesla cars were really in high demand, and supply was the problem then I would expect them to raise prices, thus increasing revenue. They haven't done that, which means Tesla's are probably not as sexy cars as they try to paint them.

Companies that raise prices in exceptional situations take a major reputational hit. The canonical example is snow shovels after a blizzard.

This is not taking advantage of a disaster (taking advantage of people's suffering), this is supply and demand. Supposedly, Tesla's are in high demand and as a 'luxury' good they could charge as much as they wished without consequence to their reputation. Indeed, it may even increase the desirability of their cars. Which begs the question, why haven't they? Instead, they've consistently slashed prices..

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#247

Post by Animats »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #245
Animats wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question here is, what's it worth without assuming great future growth? Tesla is in the price range of BMW, in the midrange luxury segment. Assume they stay there. What's Tesla's value?

> Assume they stay there Hopefully that assumption doesn't hold. Quoting from the earnings call: "Our cars are not affordable enough—we need to fix that. We are making progress in that regard. We need to not go bankrupt, obviously, but we're not trying to be too profitable. One or 2 percent, it's not too crazy. Slightly profitable and maximize growth, making the cars as affordable as possible"

Tesla's price movement has been in the other direction - upward. The Model 3 was originally supposed to sell for $35,000. Now, it's "$39,990 - $56,990".

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#248

Post by reducesuffering »

Animats wrote: post #247
bryanlarsen wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Assume they stay there Hopefully that assumption doesn't hold. Quoting from the earnings call: "Our cars are not affordable enough—we need to fix that. We are making progress in that regard. We need to not go bankrupt, obviously, but we're not trying to be too profitable. One or 2 percent, it's not too crazy. Slightly profitable and maximize growth, making the cars as affordable as possible"

Tesla's price movement has been in the other direction - upward. The Model 3 was originally supposed to sell for $35,000. Now, it's "$39,990 - $56,990".

More recently there were 2k cuts on 3 and Y and major cuts on S and X.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#249

Post by jennyyang »

ckdarby wrote: post #241
stingrae wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do think Tesla is way over valued at the moment. How could they be worth more than the market cap of all the vehicle companies combined? There isn’t going to be largely more numbers of vehicles bought each year. As to why Tesla could be the winner? One reason is that all the other automakers are failing to produce mass market EVs that anyone wants to buy.

My wife & I are considering our next vehicle our last non-electric one. We consider every vehicle brand a joke aside from Tesla.

There are many reasons why Tesla is not optimal. If you get into an accident, your car will be in the shop for months. Literally months. I have a Tesla with a minor trim at the bottom of the car got damaged. It took 3 months, and they had to take apart the entire car. Literally even the back seats were taken apart just to change the trim on the bottom. It cost over $10,000.

Tesla's quality has dropped so much that JD Power's latest survey ranked it near the bottom in terms of quality. Everyone that has a Tesla says that they are fun to drive (they are) but they feel cheaply made.

The European car manufacturers are coming out with electric cars and I think they're ability to create a luxurious feel will make a big dent to Tesla's sales. Case in point, the Porsche Taycan looks amazing and will be a competitor to the Model S.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#250

Post by hedora »

ckastner wrote: post #89
marc__1 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla posted positive free cash flow (CFO - capex) for 4 of the last 5 quarters (page 24) and it the only company with increase in # of deliveries among the 10 largest autos globally (page 7). Gross margins >20% is also best in class in the auto industry The list goes on in terms of growth & profitability

> "The list goes on in terms of growth & profitability" It better. Tesla has a market cap of 4x that of VW, a car maker with €256bn revenue and ~€17bn profit in 2019. It is beyond me why anyone would buy this stock over VW, let alone pay 4x the price for it. Even if Tesla could put out 900K cars in a quarter instead of the current 90K, they'd still not come even close to the competition is terms of financial success.…

Tesla will probably own a good percentage of the $92B roofing market in a few years.

They’re likely to own a big chunk of the market for electricity generation and storage equipment.

Also, people hate dealerships and CO2 so much that I think the general assumption is that Tesla will be one of a very small number of car manufacturers left standing in a decade or so.

Finally, I think people assume Tesla will be like Amazon, and keep doubling down on their bets until they’ve run out of industries to take over.

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