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Q2 2020 Update

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Q2 2020 Update

#231

Post by SaltyLemonZest »

mamon wrote: post #88
guardiangod wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One would expect a widget-manufacturer that is supply-constrained to have flat revenue until new factories are opened, unless you are talking about raising prices to increase profitability. It doesn't seem Tesla is that concerned with short-term profitability.

If Tesla cars were really in high demand, and supply was the problem then I would expect them to raise prices, thus increasing revenue. They haven't done that, which means Tesla's are probably not as sexy cars as they try to paint them.

There are many contexts where that's not a good market strategy. Movie theaters don't charge double for the opening night of Avengers movies, for example.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#233

Post by justapassenger »

SaltyLemonZest wrote: post #226
justapassenger wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s the climate change company One (extreme) way of looking at it, is that it's a company that's enabling climate change, at a tiny scale (as they aren't really that big). Regulatory credits, that are driving their profitability, is selling other car manufactures ability to produce gas-guzzling vehicles.

There are reasons to believe they might soon be that big. I'm not saying it's close to a sure bet, but in the Netherlands and Norway they're already the top selling brand - I think any reasonable analysis has to admit the possibility that they might soon replicate that success in larger countries.

You need to check your data. Netherlands and Norway are markets where Tesla is failing extremely hard once competition showed up. They used to be one of the top selling brands, 1-2 years ago. Since then, their market share plummeted.

For Norway, in 2020, for all car sales, Model 3 is in the 6th place, and with 1-4th place occupied by BEV from "legacy" car companies [1]. Model S/X sales are basically gone. Their market share of EV went from over 30%, to well under 10% in just a year [2].

In Netherlands, their sales also plummeted. While model 3 is still best selling EV there [3], lead isn't wide, and they only have 13% of overall EV market, at mere ~2700 cars.

And this is HUGE drop from 2019. In 2019, they sold almost 30k cars [4]. Annualized that's over 80% drop.

[1] https://cleantechnica.com/2020/07/09/69-of-autos-sold-in-nor... [2] https://i.redd.it/amrtc9yhl9851.png [3] https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-model-3... [4] https://insideevs.com/news/391681/plugin-car-sales-netherlan...

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#234

Post by wenc »

neximo64 wrote: post #222
wenc wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, EV tax credits are subsidies for a "category" -- electric vehicles -- not specific companies. Every EV customer gets them, and their intention is incentivize the transition to electric transportation, so they're working as they should.

So its not taxpayer funded?

It is, but the original complaint was disingenuous.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#235

Post by SaltyLemonZest »

justapassenger wrote: post #233
SaltyLemonZest wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are reasons to believe they might soon be that big. I'm not saying it's close to a sure bet, but in the Netherlands and Norway they're already the top selling brand - I think any reasonable analysis has to admit the possibility that they might soon replicate that success in larger countries.

You need to check your data. Netherlands and Norway are markets where Tesla is failing extremely hard once competition showed up. They used to be one of the top selling brands, 1-2 years ago. Since then, their market share plummeted. For Norway, in 2020, for all car sales, Model 3 is in the 6th place, and with 1-4th place occupied by BEV from "legacy" car companies [1]. Model S/X sales are basically gone. Their marke…

I don't have time to dig in right now, but that does sound pretty bad for them.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#236

Post by notJim »

xnx wrote: post #114
jeffbee wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Old people on my Nextdoor are asking whether they should buy some TSLA, which was as good a signal as any I've ever seen when the same people were asking if they should maybe get some bitcoins (at $20k each). TSLA like every other US equity right now is supported by retail momentum alone.

TSLA is absolutely the present-day BTC.

I really need to get better at getting into these asset bubbles. I'm too late for Tesla, and it doesn't look like BTC has been going anywhere lately. Anyone got any tips for me?

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#237

Post by AlchemistCamp »

SaltyLemonZest wrote: post #231
mamon wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Tesla cars were really in high demand, and supply was the problem then I would expect them to raise prices, thus increasing revenue. They haven't done that, which means Tesla's are probably not as sexy cars as they try to paint them.

There are many contexts where that's not a good market strategy. Movie theaters don't charge double for the opening night of Avengers movies, for example.

Out of curiosity, why don't they charge double during opening weekend? It seems like that would be a successful strategy.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#238

Post by notJim »

jliptzin wrote: post #193
CydeWeys wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you'll be getting the e-Golf? I just looked it up and its range is only 123 miles; is that enough?

You need 300 mile rated range bare minimum or you are going to be in for a lot of headaches. That range is only actually 300 miles when the climate is good (not too cold) and you are driving like a grandma. If you're in a cold climate or you want to do 80 on the highway or a lot of quick accelerating/stopping or elevation changes that range goes down. On top of that, you really don't want to drive the car down to 0%…

Not if you have 2 cars (or are willing to rent) and a short commute (covid? why buy a car at all?). I rarely drive more than like 25 miles in a day. Even most of the close hikes I do are within about 30 miles of my house.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#239

Post by Animats »

9nGQluzmnq3M wrote: post #216
Animats wrote: post #214

OK, they're profitable, and sales are flat to decreasing. Viewed as a mature company, what are they worth?

These are not normal times: flat sales during Q2 is quite an achievement when all your competition tanked by ~30%.

The question here is, what's it worth without assuming great future growth? Tesla is in the price range of BMW, in the midrange luxury segment. Assume they stay there. What's Tesla's value?

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#240

Post by almost_usual »

coliveira wrote: post #150
ckastner wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "The list goes on in terms of growth & profitability" It better. Tesla has a market cap of 4x that of VW, a car maker with €256bn revenue and ~€17bn profit in 2019. It is beyond me why anyone would buy this stock over VW, let alone pay 4x the price for it. Even if Tesla could put out 900K cars in a quarter instead of the current 90K, they'd still not come even close to the competition is terms of financial success.…

Everyone investing on Tesla is counting on it becoming a kind a Facebook for Cars, using the power of its stock to kill and buy competitors. That reasoning is not far from a possibility given the aggressiveness, bordering on the illegality, practiced by the company in its dealings with governments and the stock market.

Meatspace is a lot harder to control and profit off of than the digital world.
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