Q2 2020 Update • Hacker News Board

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#151

Post by modeless » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 9:57 PM UTC

itsoktocry wrote: post #142

modeless wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Factory construction expenses aren't explicitly broken out in the financials. But cutting R&D could more than double their net income this quarter, if they wanted. What's your point? Do you believe that doubling their number of vehicle factories along with significant expansions at both existing factories isn't having a material impact on their expenses? They are doing it because they need more capacity to increase r…

> But cutting R&D could more than double their net income this quarter, if they wanted. What's your point? What's your point? That if we exclude all expenses from their income statement they'd be profitable? Unfortunately, they can't do that. > They are doing it because they need more capacity to increase revenue Are any of their factories running near capacity? > And do you really think that comparing this quarter Y…

My point is succinctly stated here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23921383

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#152

Post by itsoktocry » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 10:02 PM UTC

modeless wrote: post #130

itsoktocry wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> producing cars with pretty good margin and not losing money is an pretty big accomplishment. If you back out the regulatory credits they've lost money on every car they've ever sold, for almost 20 years. Where do you get "good margins" from? This is an example of narrative versus financial data.

Gross margin on cars is 25% this quarter, 17% after removing regulatory credits. What "financial data" are you using to come to the conclusion that they don't have good margins?

>Gross margin on cars is 25% this quarter

You can go broke with 99% gross margins.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#153

Post by zaroth » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 10:05 PM UTC

itsoktocry wrote: post #87

toomuchtodo wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My Tesla stock with a $17/share cost basis says otherwise. Take the the other side of the bet and short it if you doubt the long term value. The world isn’t going to suddenly stop supporting climate change mitigation through policy. It’s only going to ramp up, leaving legacy Orgs in the dust.

> My Tesla stock with a $17/share cost basis says otherwise. Tesla's IPO price was $17. So you got in right on the lowest price the stock has ever been and never bought another share since? Amazing.

OP never said all his stock had a $17 basis, just that they held stock with a $17 basis. I agree, the capital appreciation of TSLA stock is truly amazing though.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#154

Post by qeternity » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 10:05 PM UTC

WJW wrote: post #145

thecopy wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It’s the climate change company What does this mean? ELI5 pls

They mean that in the mind of "the general public", Tesla is the foremost company "doing stuff" about climate change. Therefore, by owning Tesla stock you can get warm glowy feels about making a difference. You might also gain coolness points by mentioning that you are "a Tesla investor" to people that care about such matters.

There’s an element of this amongst retail but I’m talking about professionals. A diversified portfolio has to have some aggressive do or die growth stocks. TSLA is (or was) probably the best of this breed. So if you’re going to own a change-the-world-or-die-trying stock, TSLA is the go to for many.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#155

Post by jupp0r » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 10:05 PM UTC

xoxoy wrote: post #60

matthewdgreen wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the question is whether it’s sustainable as a business. And whether Tesla’s other businesses are growing quickly enough that they can make up for the loss of those credits when other manufacturers start producing more EVs.

right there’s like a dozen EVs coming to market in 2021/2022. it will disappear very quickly over the next 2 years.

I'm not convinced. New vehicles have been announced each year in the last couple of years now and they have been largely unsuccessful so far. I think it will be hard for other manufacturers hit the same sweet spot that the Model 3 is hitting. That being said, there are lots of segments (vans, pickup trucks, ...) that are still open for grabs.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#156

Post by modeless » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 10:06 PM UTC

itsoktocry wrote: post #152

modeless wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gross margin on cars is 25% this quarter, 17% after removing regulatory credits. What "financial data" are you using to come to the conclusion that they don't have good margins?

> Gross margin on cars is 25% this quarter You can go broke with 99% gross margins.

You were specifically arguing that their margins are not good.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#157

Post by dhritzkiv » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 10:06 PM UTC

bobsoap wrote: post #78

ehsankia wrote: post #67

I know the domain name is there, but shouldn't the post title contain "Tesla"?

Seconded. A hint that it links to a PDF would also be welcomed by everyone on a phone.

Out of curiosity, why is viewing a PDF unwelcome on a mobile device?

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#158

Post by simonebrunozzi » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 10:06 PM UTC

Lendal wrote: post #80

ehsankia wrote: post #67

I know the domain name is there, but shouldn't the post title contain "Tesla"?

Unnecessary. Tesla is the only company whose quarterly updates regularly make the front page of Hacker News. For some reason.

Google, Microsoft, Amazon, they all somehow make the front page of HN with their quarterly reports. Not just Tesla.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#159

Post by _ph_ » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 10:08 PM UTC

Some comments to the results:

- Production was very limited in Q2 as the Freemont factory was completely down for quite some time. Getting the delivery count they managed, was a small miracle, of course helped by the ramping up Shanghai factory. So making still a profit is a great result. If the factory does not get closed down in Q3, sale numbers should be quite a bit better.

- Yes, they certainly moved all profits they could legally book into Q2 to help the numbers, that is a quite normal practice, the booking rules set clear limits to what is possible.

- Tesla won't make huge profits however good the business will be going, as they are investing a lot into growth. They are still extending the Shanghai factory, building the Berlin factory and just announced in the earnings call, that they are starting to build the next factory in Austin, Texas. Tesla is going from 1 factory in 2019 to 2 in 2020 and possible 4 at the end of 2021.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#160

Post by jupp0r » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 10:10 PM UTC

DanCarvajal wrote: post #120

shuckles wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty odd to consider that every other carmaker, obsessed with optimizing their business, would rather pay Tesla straight cash than rush out an electric drivetrain car. Across the Taycan, i3, and Bolt, there’s certainly plenty of evidence that they can.

Let's be clear we're mostly talking about, Fiat is the company buying tons of Tesla credits. This might be better for everyone all around. Would you want a Fiat EV?

Sure, if they made an electric Dodge Charger or an electric RAM Rebel ....