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Q2 2020 Update

ir.tesla.com

41–50 of 302 posts

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Off of credits though right? Also isn’t Tesla considered a “tech” stock by a lot of investors? A 20% gross margin is not good for a tech stock.

“Regulatory credits” are getting paid for making electric cars other automakers won’t make. Fiat alone must pay Tesla $2B for credits to keep selling internal combustion vehicles in Europe.

[deleted]

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#42
post #24

Revenues down Year over Year, and yet their stock price is 8x. Profiability increased, but its market cap is larger than Toyota which has over 10x the revenues. This stock is truly one for /r/wallstreetbets.

You realize their factory was shut down for much of this period, right? Comparing YOY quarterly figures here is very disingenuous.

Their stock price rose 8x. There's nothing in these numbers that justifies this type of meteoric rise exception pure, unadulterated speculation. They wouldn't have even been profitable if they couldn't sell their regulatory credits. How is that justifiable for an 8x YoY increase?

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#43

Positive financial results, one surprise to be seen here is a massive reduction in model S builds, more than 60% drop-off QoQ Presumably due to COVID, but maybe not?

I would argue that the model S/X should be updated for their respective costs; They pretty much sell a 6 year old interior that was "space age" at the time. Since then their have been minor interior/exterior and looks extremely dated as the competition has "caught" up and the cheaper models surpass it. The only main changes to the car have been better battery and performance, the latter doesn't improve the day to day experience of the car.

When your spending 100k on a car you expect Mercedes type of luxury. Previously, Tesla didn't have to compete on that because the Model S/X were ahead of its time an proof of concept cars, with the release of Model 3/Y there is no reason to have one, unless you need the additional size and want to have an electric vehicle on principle.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#44
post #33
post #30

So many red flags Profit is all regulatory credits, actual auto sales flat to down, accounts receivable balance is now 1.4B or >20% of revenue, interest income is $8M (down -20%) even though global interest rates were cut to near 0 in Q2, R&D and service spending down despite dozens of projects the company claims to be working on.

On a TTM basis, GAAP OI is $1.23 billion against regulatory credits of $1.05 billion. They are actually barely profitable without the credits (though negative in the current quarter). Edit: re receivables, I don't necessary see a problem there - DSO of about 21 days - especially considering they also have all the residential receivables from their solar business.

potentially helped by partial shutdowns and furloughs and bonus cuts. they had inventory from Q1 they could sell.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#45
post #38
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla posted positive free cash flow (CFO - capex) for 4 of the last 5 quarters (page 24) and it the only company with increase in # of deliveries among the 10 largest autos globally (page 7). Gross margins >20% is also best in class in the auto industry The list goes on in terms of growth & profitability

they earn 100% margins on selling $400M in mysterious regulatory credits

There's nothing mysterious about them. Car companies are required to produce clean vehicles, or they can instead buy credits from companies who do. Companies are paying right now rather than producing, and Tesla is there to benefit from it. There's nothing shady or mysterious here.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#46

What are regulatory credits? I thought the 7500 credit ran out?

People have mentioned the US ZEV credits. But there are also EU emission pools. In the EU car makers have to meet an average CO2 emissions target across their fleet, if they don't they pay fines. Car markers can pool with each other. Tesla, with a lot of sales and zero emissions, is very valuable in a pool. FCA (Fiat-Chrysler) has paid Tesla to form an emissions pool with them. Here is a video about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwXsY7IcrO8

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Off of credits though right? Also isn’t Tesla considered a “tech” stock by a lot of investors? A 20% gross margin is not good for a tech stock.

“Regulatory credits” are getting paid for making electric cars other automakers won’t make. Fiat alone must pay Tesla $2B for credits to keep selling internal combustion vehicles in Europe.

So Tesla is a good investment because they get paid by other automakers to make cars they don’t want to make right now?

This doesn’t seem like a good long term strategy.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#48

Pre Close: - From Bloomberg re Robinhood and TSLA "number of Robinhood accounts holding Tesla shares (in some form) is at an all- time high of 496,890. Tesla is the second-most popular stock on the platform over the last 24 hours, and the 19th-most popular stock over the last 7 days." Looking at: - if profitiable check for amount of regulatory credits that Telsa gets from other automakers, this could be the differenc…

>- S&P 500 here we come, so /r/wallstreetbets and robinhood, congrats you guys did it!!!

Thanks for the summary. This should have been top comment.

My risk appetite tells me not invest on something I dont understand. And I dont understand Tesla's valuation. But from an outsider perspective, this has been fun to watch.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#49
post #10

What are regulatory credits? I thought the 7500 credit ran out?

This is separate from the consumer EV tax credit. Every car manufacturer must produce a certain percentage of electric cars. If their actual EV sales aren’t enough to cover that requirement, they can purchase “EV credits” from companies that exceeded their regulatory requirements to avoid a fine. Essentially this policy gets car companies that aren’t producing EVs to subsidize the ones that are.

Interesting! I wasn't aware of this credit. How it's structured is fascinating in that they essentially have to pay their competitors for not meeting the quota. (Of course the markets for EV vs ICE is somewhat different, but not disjoint.)

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#50
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they earn 100% margins on selling $400M in mysterious regulatory credits

There's nothing mysterious about them. Car companies are required to produce clean vehicles, or they can instead buy credits from companies who do. Companies are paying right now rather than producing, and Tesla is there to benefit from it. There's nothing shady or mysterious here.

they don’t break out who the buyers of these credits are.

i cannot find any information from a Ford or Toyota or GM describing the millions of credits they’ve purchased from Tesla shrug

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