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‘Strong Opinions, Weakly Held’ Doesn't Work That Well

commoncog.com

21–30 of 175 posts

Re: ‘Strong Opinions, Weakly Held’ Doesn't Work That Well

#21

I prefer "weak opinions, strongly held", as in, "I don't know. And I am pretty sure you don't either." Won't sell me any books, but it's been my experience.

An analogy the original concept makes me think of, is how you can pour out some stuff like sand or flour, and it's hard to tell how much you have because it forms a mound. But if you shake it, it levels out. And if you're pouring onto a scale, shaking makes it pour more continually and lets you get the exact amount you want. In general, going back and forth seems like a way of reducing hysteresis, and that's what the "strong opinions weakly held" concept sounds like to me. The human tendency is to resist flip flopping to present an outward image of stability, so it's best to do constant internal flip-flopping without losing your place and letting people know. I haven't thought of the concept by the catchphrase/meme, but I have many times thought that whenever I see a claim, I need to reverse it in my mind and think about whether it's any more or less plausible to consider the opposite. To avoid the friction and path-dependence of an idea. People like to be contrarian and sometimes they appear to be smart people, who scoff at this sort of thing, reversing obvious statements. But I still think it's vital.

Re: ‘Strong Opinions, Weakly Held’ Doesn't Work That Well

#22
post #19

I prefer "weak opinions, strongly held", as in, "I don't know. And I am pretty sure you don't either." Won't sell me any books, but it's been my experience.

On the other hand, when faced with a fork in the road, it's important to choose. Often it doesn't matter which - but if you vacillate, and especially if you are leading - then you can fail by not choosing. So, strong opinions: decisively go down one road; weakly held: turn around if information suggests it looks like the wrong road. You can only update your opinions if you engage with reality, which demands a certain…

> then you can fail by not choosing

But you can also fail by choosing wrong and sticking to that conviction too long.

I think the whole point is that how strong your opinion is and how strong you hold it are insufficient to know if you will fail or succeed.

Re: ‘Strong Opinions, Weakly Held’ Doesn't Work That Well

#23
post #19

I prefer "weak opinions, strongly held", as in, "I don't know. And I am pretty sure you don't either." Won't sell me any books, but it's been my experience.

On the other hand, when faced with a fork in the road, it's important to choose. Often it doesn't matter which - but if you vacillate, and especially if you are leading - then you can fail by not choosing. So, strong opinions: decisively go down one road; weakly held: turn around if information suggests it looks like the wrong road. You can only update your opinions if you engage with reality, which demands a certain…

> On the other hand, when faced with a fork in the road, it's important to choose. Often it doesn't matter which - but if you vacillate, and especially if you are leading - then you can fail by not choosing.

The number of times people think they are at such a fork where non-action is worse than any action is an order of magnitude more than in reality.

In my experience, most of these cases are reflective of a social issue. The problem at hand doesn't require one make a decision any time soon, but if you don't, you are viewed negatively. So the social systems around you push you to make a decision even when one is not needed.

Almost every time I've heard someone use the phrase "fence-sitter" it is this scenario. At my work, we have surveys where we rank things on a 5 pt scale: 1 is strongly against, 5 is strongly in favor, and 3 is neutral. There's a significant block of people who keep pushing HR to make it a 4 point scale so there is no neutral option. I've had several discussions with them, and they've never been able to give me a good reason, beyond statements like "You have to have some opinion!" and some negative comment about fence sitters.

But yes, for certain things (e.g. investing for retirement), it's probably better to pick a safe option than not pick anything.

Re: ‘Strong Opinions, Weakly Held’ Doesn't Work That Well

#24

I prefer "weak opinions, strongly held", as in, "I don't know. And I am pretty sure you don't either." Won't sell me any books, but it's been my experience.

What is the practical implication of that? "Strong opinions, weakly held" means (IIUC) make a decision, but be open to changing it if data points to it being wrong. It helps avoid the trap of looking for perfect data to make a perfect decision. Can you provide a practical application of "weak opinions, strongly held"?

Re: ‘Strong Opinions, Weakly Held’ Doesn't Work That Well

#25
It unfortunately doesn't work because people in general don't get that knowledge progresses and what may previously been considered a truth, no longer is - and that should be how it works because we learn and grow as a civilisation.[1]

But it's not - people don't accept that what they were told previously is no longer correct. A good example is the current arguments around mask wearing. By originally saying don't wear masks, that has stuck and a lot of people think either you lied originally or you don't know what you're talking about - ideas made worse by being promoted for political gain.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life_of_knowledge

Re: ‘Strong Opinions, Weakly Held’ Doesn't Work That Well

#26
post #16

There's a type of exercise where you're not asked "I want to do $x, how do I achieve that?" but instead are asked "I don't know what to do, can you find out?" where the scope might be anywhere from "pick an new ERP" to "reorganise the entire worldwide operations to be a more effective at all things digital". If faced with such a wide open question you could do some research and start asking all the questions you thin…

You may be interested in reading about "wicked problems" which are a well studied limiting case of the situation you describe.

Re: ‘Strong Opinions, Weakly Held’ Doesn't Work That Well

#28
The article is spot on. As humans it is incredibly difficult to avoid being committed to your decision, a big problem for 'strong opinions, weakly held'. I think Elon's advice is much better and I try to exercise it regularly: "Assume you are wrong. Your goal is to be less wrong."
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