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Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

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Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#51
post #4

Thiel is interesting to me because he is so different than others in the SV bubble. Whether you agree with him or think he is the devil, at least he has independent views. I find a lot of people don’t think for themselves anymore.

I don't think he's that different beyond partisanship. Especially in the YC ecosystem with peers like Balaji Srinivasan. A lot of SV people want to "disrupt" basic foundations of our government like the education system.

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#52

I think Thiel is worth listening to, but sometimes his contrarianism flips into derangement: > [Peter Robinson: In 2016, how many professors at the top five law schools endorsed Donald Trump?] [2] Zero. And the law school example's interesting because you would think it's one where if you took the, a lot of academic fields are more internal to academia, but law is one that cashes out in a governmental political conte…

I would say the second. Trump supporters in tech companies are certainly subject to (gentle) totalitarian barbarism. I know some people who support Trump privately who would never defend Trump in a work setting. It's simply not worth losing your job over.

I would assume it's worse in academia.

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#53

Some of the links are from 10 years ago, and it shows. His views on solar being too expensive for practical use seem anachronistic now, and I'm sure his opinion has changed with the market.

It _was_ too expensive 10 years ago. Technology improvements have brought efficiency up and cost down since then.

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#54

I've listened to some of these interviews and agree completely with the basic premise. However, I don't think it's correct that China's success is entirely explained from simply copying America. Of course copying is responsible for part of their success, but there are clear examples of the reverse. For example, integration of payments into WeChat, which has been duplicated by Facebook and others (but not as successfu…

The language barrier is really making it difficult to see progress in China even for people interested in a particular space.

For example, in just the VR space, if I follow the most popular VR related subreddits and podcasts I often miss important Chinese VR hardware and software. And sometimes the hardware is better than anything available in the US.

I only found out about these cutting edge haptic gloves called Dexmo because I happened upon a review of an American product on an expert blog and the review compared them to a Chinese version.

https://skarredghost.com/2020/04/07/senseglove-vr-haptics-gl...

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#55
post #25

The future is coming. In China. Energy: - Million-volt DC power transmission over thousands of kilometers is routine. - Solar panels get cheaper every year. - 46 nuclear reactors in operation, 11 under construction. Transportation: - 35,000km of high speed rail. - Several major cities, including Shenzhen (16 million people), use all electric taxis and buses now. - 600km/hr maglev train in test. Medicine: - First coro…

Ten years ago I'd agree, but I don't think outright genocide qualifies as "mildly oppressive". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_genocide_of_Uyghurs

That's not genocide, it's forced assimilation. China is trying to break the stranglehold of Islam. That's tough, as two decades of wars in the Middle East have taught the US.

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#56
post #45

On Page 92, under Biotech, >The problem that I remain the most passionate about is for us to make some real and continued progress in the fight against aging and death. But how does one help? Really. I've been in academia for more than 10 years. I've had done some really promising stuff and know people with pretty cool projects that are 1,000% worth pursuing. Yet I have found virtually zero support as I don't play we…

Would you please explain a bit further what you mean by politics of science and how it's agains't actually doing science?

Not GP, but science is becoming increasingly hierarchical in it's funding mechanisms, placing bigger bets on bigger projects that reflect the perspective of older scientists and the status quo. This pulls funding away from up and coming scientists with new ideas they'd like to try out. Classic increase of risk aversion.

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#57

I think Thiel is worth listening to, but sometimes his contrarianism flips into derangement: > [Peter Robinson: In 2016, how many professors at the top five law schools endorsed Donald Trump?] [2] Zero. And the law school example's interesting because you would think it's one where if you took the, a lot of academic fields are more internal to academia, but law is one that cashes out in a governmental political conte…

> Harvard law professors don't endorse Trump because he's unfit to lead a parade

Even if you take a more cynical view, and assume that some of them will be selfish, the sort of person who's a tenured law professor at a top university probably values the opinions of their colleagues and peers. And if one of them were to do this, and they got nominated to the supreme court, their peers would see them (correctly) as sellouts, as would, likely, history.

There's nothing sinister here; law professors didn't do it because either (a) they were responsible or (b) they have too much self-respect/self-regard (depending on level of cynicism). Thiel's thesis would only really work if becoming a Supreme Court justice was some sort of all-overriding imperative for lawyers, like Sauron looking for rings.

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#58
post #4

Thiel is interesting to me because he is so different than others in the SV bubble. Whether you agree with him or think he is the devil, at least he has independent views. I find a lot of people don’t think for themselves anymore.

People can achieve mainstream views through independent thought though.

If all your views line up with the mainstream you’re most definitely not thinking for yourself though. Thiel in fact suggests a question framed in way to force people to think for themselves:

> What important truth do very few people agree with you on?

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#59
> If meaningful scientific and technological progress occurs, then we reasonably would expect greater economic prosperity (though this may be offset by other factors). And also in reverse: If economic gains, as measured by certain key indicators, have been limited or nonexistent, then perhaps so has scientific and technological progress.

My eye-opening realization of American stagnation came in history class during high school. The teacher told us the narrative of progress through the 1800s, how industrialization brought more wealth and electricity improved quality of life. He spoke of an increase in wages that came with it: each decade, Americans were wealthier than before.

People assume the lives of their children would be better than their own. But in the 1960s, an American man could support a family of five: himself, his wife, and three kids was the norm. Sure, part of that can be explained by sexism and gender issues of the time, but the point was that women didn't have to work because a single income was sufficient to support a family. Today, most families are dual-income[0] as a matter of necessity, not necessarily desire. It's no longer obvious that progress will continue, and certainly not obvious that the progress we are making is a good thing for most people.

My grandparents, separately, once remarked that they had seen "perhaps the last real changes in quality of life any generation would have." Running water in homes, indoor toilets, microwaves, refrigerators, and the development of computer networks all happened in the 20th century. They predicted continued stagnation in human innovation, that most of the universe's great ideas had already been discovered.

Where are the big, boundary-pushing changes to life that the relentless pursuit of technology had promised? Where do we go from here? My father once speculated it would come from far-field wireless power transmission. That would kick off the next space race, pushing humanity farther into space than we could ever imagine by fuel. And certainly it would push a new generation of innovation forward, enabling ideas that would not have been possible before. What are the next transformative technologies waiting just around the corner, capable of changing and improving life for everyone on the planet?

[0]: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/famee.nr0.htm

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#60
post #11

I think the fundamental problem is that we have grown so used to the idea of advanced progress within our own lifetime that we now refuse to do anything where we cannot see the payoff within our own lifetimes, this means we will likely not have any more major multi-generational project timelines, which are necessary for things like mass human space travel, or even solving global warming.

Don't worry - I think it's pretty clear we're at the point now where if we don't solve global warming within a single generation, it's too late.

We’re the wrong generation to solve this problem, it’s already too late.
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