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The Keynesian Revolution: A new biography of John Maynard Keynes

bostonreview.net

21–30 of 49 posts

Re: The Keynesian Revolution: A new biography of John Maynard Keynes

#21
post #6

The treatment of Keynes' post-WWI comments is an apologia that misses the deeper point. Keynes was not merely wrong about the German ability to pay, he misread the strategic situation. The French position was not merely motivated by vengeance. The Post-WWI situation was simple in a way yet strage. Germany was defeated, yet it remained the strongest country in continental Europe. Britain and France were bled dry, Russ…

> Keynes was not merely wrong about the German ability to pay So the Germans were able to pay? I don't pretend to be a historian, yet I've never heard the idea that Germany could pay. BTW, the Odd Lots had a show [1] about the book recently [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-07-12/studying-key...

The standard story about Germany was actually massive spread and perpetuated by the Germans after WW1. Its often said that the victors write history, but in this case its actually contrarians in the winning nations and the losing nations that wrote history.

Re: The Keynesian Revolution: A new biography of John Maynard Keynes

#22
post #2

I think Keynes was misunderstood massively like Karl Marx. Marx said "I am not a Marxist" when he saw his ideas being put into a something bordering a religious teaching. And later, I think, Keynes was rather unsettled with how his works been used to legitimise a new maxim "government can print money out of thin air," from an inverse of what dominated US economic thinking before him. It was not his idea at all. Beyon…

I've found two key ideas in Keynes:

1. Wealth is a verb, not a noun, at least at macroeconomic scales. The wealth of nations is measured by how much they do more than how much they have.

2. Governments and perhaps other large entities should spend counter-cyclically. This makes sense in terms of dampening cycles but also in terms of getting the most value for that money. If you can spend during a recession, you get a bargain.

Keynes did not advocate unlimited money printing and he would be horrified by the sheer amount of debt in modern economies.

He was critical of hard gold pegs, but didn't necessarily advocate the perhaps equally insane opposite.

Also agree about Marx. His fans misunderstand him as much as his critics. What most people associate with Marx comes more from Lenin and Stalin.

I would add Ayn Rand to the list of totally misunderstood thinkers both by her fans and her critics. She was a heretical liberal humanist, not a conservative and definitely not a reactionary.

One curious thing I've noticed is that if you have a discussion between Marxists of the classical and less Leninist sort and Randians you will find huge areas of overlap outside economics. These include technology, the notion of progress, science, the importance of education, etc.

Re: The Keynesian Revolution: A new biography of John Maynard Keynes

#24
post #10
post #2

I think Keynes was misunderstood massively like Karl Marx. Marx said "I am not a Marxist" when he saw his ideas being put into a something bordering a religious teaching. And later, I think, Keynes was rather unsettled with how his works been used to legitimise a new maxim "government can print money out of thin air," from an inverse of what dominated US economic thinking before him. It was not his idea at all. Beyon…

One of Keynes' major contributions was to _convince_ that aggregate demand was a strong influence on economic output, and that left to its own devices the private sector would not be willing or able to perform the countercyclical spending necessary to stabilise an economy during a recession (by stabilise I specifically mean increase output back to the long run productive capacity of the economy). GDP = aggregate spen…

> when we find ourselves in a situation where 20% of the workforce is suddenly unemployed due to a shutdown of economic output, the government can spend to help stabilise aggregate incomes without risking inflation

The root problem with printing money is not inflation, it's wealth transfer. Printing money, whether it leads to inflation (increase in average price level--note that this usage of the term "inflation" is itself a product of Keynes, its older and more proper use was "increase in the quantity of money") or not, always means a transfer of wealth from whoever does not get some of the printed money to whoever does. In other words, it is a transfer of buying power.

In the current situation, where the transfer is spread widely across everyone and has the explicit effect of compensating people for loss of income due to no fault of their own, it is hard to argue that the transfer is a bad thing, and it won't cause much economic distortion or misallocation of resources because the printed money is going to be spent on much the same things as the lost income would have been spent on anyway. So the buying power is being used for much the same things as it was before.

However, in most cases of printing money, the transfer is very different. The way the US government has been doing it basically since the Federal Reserve existed, it is a transfer from everyone who is not a financial institution, to financial institutions. This causes serious economic distortion and misallocation of resources, because it significantly changes what the buying power is used for. That is why, for example, we have McMansions galore in the US and newly constructed office space sitting empty for years in many metro areas, while we also have many ordinary citizens having trouble making ends meet, crumbling infrastructure, and underfunded basic services: because printing money and giving it to financial institutions redirects buying power to housing purchased with mortgages and commercial construction funded with loans, instead of what the people whose buying power has been transferred away would have spent it on.

Re: The Keynesian Revolution: A new biography of John Maynard Keynes

#25
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is literally true that the government can print money out of thin air. This is a genuine fact about the world today, so I don't see how Keynes would draw a different conclusion. Keynes did say If the Treasury were to fill old bottles with banknotes, bury them at suitable depths in disused coalmines which are then filled up to the surface with town rubbish, and leave it to private enterprise on well-tried principle…

I've never understood this. If everyone is doing unproductive "busy work" (digging up money) instead of making useful goods and services, then how could the money be worth anything?

Someone has to make shovels, houses, clothing, etc. The people who find the cash also end up spending it on other things. It doesn't matter that the money isn't initially earned for useful work, as long as it gets spent on useful work.

Since it's digging through a mine using drill bits to break up the rocks, you can call the idea "minecoin bitting"

Re: The Keynesian Revolution: A new biography of John Maynard Keynes

#26
post #22
post #2

I think Keynes was misunderstood massively like Karl Marx. Marx said "I am not a Marxist" when he saw his ideas being put into a something bordering a religious teaching. And later, I think, Keynes was rather unsettled with how his works been used to legitimise a new maxim "government can print money out of thin air," from an inverse of what dominated US economic thinking before him. It was not his idea at all. Beyon…

I've found two key ideas in Keynes: 1. Wealth is a verb, not a noun, at least at macroeconomic scales. The wealth of nations is measured by how much they do more than how much they have. 2. Governments and perhaps other large entities should spend counter-cyclically. This makes sense in terms of dampening cycles but also in terms of getting the most value for that money. If you can spend during a recession, you get a…

>... you have a discussion between Marxists of the classical and less Leninist sort and Randians you will find huge areas of overlap outside economics. These include technology, the notion of progress, science, the importance of education, etc.

You can see that on a Pournelle chart of political ideology which maps ideology on a 2d graph instead of just a line.

>...The x-axis, "Attitude toward the State" (labeled statism), refers to a political philosophy's attitude toward the state and centralized government. The farthest right is "state worship" and the farthest left represents the state as the "ultimate evil", preferring individual freedom.

>...The y-axis, "Attitude toward planned social progress" (labeled rationalism), refers to the extent which a political philosophy is compatible with the idea that social problems can be solved by the use of reason.

Ayn Rand and various Marxists would likely both score high on the rationalism scale (and be at close to opposite sides of the statism scale).

(There might be many other multi-dimensional mappings that work better to map political ideology, but anything is likely better than the common practice of just mapping all ideology on a single line.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pournelle_chart

Re: The Keynesian Revolution: A new biography of John Maynard Keynes

#27
post #25
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never understood this. If everyone is doing unproductive "busy work" (digging up money) instead of making useful goods and services, then how could the money be worth anything?

Someone has to make shovels, houses, clothing, etc. The people who find the cash also end up spending it on other things. It doesn't matter that the money isn't initially earned for useful work, as long as it gets spent on useful work. Since it's digging through a mine using drill bits to break up the rocks, you can call the idea "minecoin bitting"

I wouldn’t much like to trade the things that fill my house for shovels and other money-digging items. How many people can the economy afford to allocate to money-digging before the production of other things that support our current quality of life begins to suffer?

Re: The Keynesian Revolution: A new biography of John Maynard Keynes

#28
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone has to make shovels, houses, clothing, etc. The people who find the cash also end up spending it on other things. It doesn't matter that the money isn't initially earned for useful work, as long as it gets spent on useful work. Since it's digging through a mine using drill bits to break up the rocks, you can call the idea "minecoin bitting"

I wouldn’t much like to trade the things that fill my house for shovels and other money-digging items. How many people can the economy afford to allocate to money-digging before the production of other things that support our current quality of life begins to suffer?

You are misunderstanding the basic idea. Keynes is writing in a time of massive unemployment and idle resources. If you have massive unemployment and idle resources, then there isn't much of a trade-off.

And he even says right there in the quote it would be better to have people do something productive.

Re: The Keynesian Revolution: A new biography of John Maynard Keynes

#29
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone has to make shovels, houses, clothing, etc. The people who find the cash also end up spending it on other things. It doesn't matter that the money isn't initially earned for useful work, as long as it gets spent on useful work. Since it's digging through a mine using drill bits to break up the rocks, you can call the idea "minecoin bitting"

I wouldn’t much like to trade the things that fill my house for shovels and other money-digging items. How many people can the economy afford to allocate to money-digging before the production of other things that support our current quality of life begins to suffer?

"Unproductive money digging" is exactly how this financialised economy operates.

The only difference is that process of production and mining is a little less obvious - to outsiders - than stuffing cash into bottles and burying it.

And of course it's privatised, which is better by definition, supposedly.

Some useful work is a byproduct. But the total of useful work isn't necessarily higher than in Keynes' example - see also Graeber's Bullshit Jobs, etc.

Re: The Keynesian Revolution: A new biography of John Maynard Keynes

#30
post #6

The treatment of Keynes' post-WWI comments is an apologia that misses the deeper point. Keynes was not merely wrong about the German ability to pay, he misread the strategic situation. The French position was not merely motivated by vengeance. The Post-WWI situation was simple in a way yet strage. Germany was defeated, yet it remained the strongest country in continental Europe. Britain and France were bled dry, Russ…

Your point that the French were taking the Realist position re: the German problem makes a whole lot of sense to me.

But what about Keynes idea that Europe as a whole was in economic ruin and it was necessary to rebuild it with economic aid or it would lead to political disaster. He seems to be to have been right about that.

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