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The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

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Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#261

Post by ezVoodoo »

gfaure wrote: post #258
ezVoodoo wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a false claim that the Covid-19 outbreak started from Wuhan. Scientists from Spain, Italy and Brazil have independently reported the detection of the coronavirus in their city waste water samples dating back to early 2019. China was the first country to detect the existence of the coronavirus, but it does not mean the virus started in China. If a country announces the finding of a new virus, it makes that count…

The fact that the virus was detected in wastewater samples in Italy earlier doesn't by itself rule out an origin from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, or from China.

It does not rule out the origin from Italy, USA, Spain, UK or any other countries on the earth either.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#262

Post by nomoreservices »

sudosysgen wrote: post #244
jkhdigital wrote: post #127

Here's the Cliff Notes version of the argument in this paper: 1. SARS-CoV-2 has a number of unique and unusual genetic features, when compared to close relatives, many of which explain its high virulence and infectivity among humans. 2. A series of research papers published by a group of virologists, dating back a little over a decade, demonstrate (1) a progressively increasing understanding of viral features which m…

This isn't entirely true, though. SARS-CoV-2 is much less virulent than SARS or MERS. For a virus that recently crossed the zoonotic barrier, and even moreso for one crossing from bats, it's virulence is actually astonishingly low. Therefore, the hypothesis of a two-stage crossing to humans, from bats to a larger land based mammal and then to humans is much much more likely, because this would explain high transmissi…

> SARS-CoV-2 is much less virulent than SARS or MERS.

Can you provide sources for that? I thought it was the opposite.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#263

Post by zimpenfish »

dwaltrip wrote: post #211
dionian wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is there evidence that it's not?

Every single pandemic in history was naturally occurring, so I think it makes sense for our priors to be weighted towards COVID-19 being a natural occurrence like all others. Substantial evidence and compelling arguments can overcome these priors. But it’s a big claim with huge implications so I think caution is warranted.

> Every single pandemic in history was naturally occurring

Add also that the scientists have been warning for decades that another SARS-alike was almost inevitable, cf.

> The now-prophetic words could be found at the end of a research paper published in the journal Clinical Microbiology Reviews in October of 2007: “The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/scientist...

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#264

Post by bb2018 »

sudosysgen wrote: post #250
hobofan wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are not that many BSL-4 labs worldwide, and especially in China (they only have 2).

Unsurprisingly one of those is in a city of 19 million people next to a reservoir of coronaviruses that already caused epidemics.

I've had some trouble understanding this claim though. From my understanding the bats that the virus most likely came from are thousands of miles away from Wuhan. This also is the area that the Wuhan researches went every year to collect samples.

My understanding of Chinese geography is a bit weak - but it is a bit like if a cow disease broke out in Boston near a BS4 lab. There are certainly some cows in Boston a few blocks from the BS4 lab there. Sure - there are cows in Massachusetts - but statistically it would be a bit surprising that a disease in cows would first show up there.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#266

Post by holler »

sudosysgen wrote: post #244
jkhdigital wrote: post #127

Here's the Cliff Notes version of the argument in this paper: 1. SARS-CoV-2 has a number of unique and unusual genetic features, when compared to close relatives, many of which explain its high virulence and infectivity among humans. 2. A series of research papers published by a group of virologists, dating back a little over a decade, demonstrate (1) a progressively increasing understanding of viral features which m…

This isn't entirely true, though. SARS-CoV-2 is much less virulent than SARS or MERS. For a virus that recently crossed the zoonotic barrier, and even moreso for one crossing from bats, it's virulence is actually astonishingly low. Therefore, the hypothesis of a two-stage crossing to humans, from bats to a larger land based mammal and then to humans is much much more likely, because this would explain high transmissi…

> A virus being engineered to be an order of magnitude less virulent seems unlikely to say the least.

From what I gathered it’s not suggesting specific genetic traits were engineered, but rather that they were experimenting and one of those experiments could have accidentally been released(?).

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#267

Post by tomp »

sudosysgen wrote: post #245
mleonhard wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the article, the authors say that, in 2015, US researchers created a chimeric virus from a bat coronavirus to infect mice lung cells. They tested the virus on human lung cells and predicted that it would be very dangerous to humans. They stopped doing research on it because it would break the US rules against making human viruses more powerful. They were working with virus researchers from Wuhan. The authors conje…

The issue is that SARS-CoV-2 is much, much less powerful. So that doesn't really follow.

What do you mean by this? I heard that it has incredible affinity to ACE receptors, which is why it sprrads so quickly (combined with asymptomatic infection)

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#268

Post by sudosysgen »

nomoreservices wrote: post #262
sudosysgen wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't entirely true, though. SARS-CoV-2 is much less virulent than SARS or MERS. For a virus that recently crossed the zoonotic barrier, and even moreso for one crossing from bats, it's virulence is actually astonishingly low. Therefore, the hypothesis of a two-stage crossing to humans, from bats to a larger land based mammal and then to humans is much much more likely, because this would explain high transmissi…

> SARS-CoV-2 is much less virulent than SARS or MERS. Can you provide sources for that? I thought it was the opposite.

Virulence :

1. the severity or harmfulness of a disease or poison.

COVID-19 - has an fatality rate of around 0.5-1%, according to the best methodologies we have, in various environments, with recent papers suggesting that it might be even less lethal in places where medical care is sufficient.

In comparison, the best data for SARS fatality rates is of around 11% (!).

This means that SARS-CoV-2 is around ten times less virulent than SARS. MERS is even worse than SARS.

Now, SARS-CoV-2 is likely even more infectious than SARS, but part of that is because it's less severe, meaning that you can spread it even without being sick.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#269

Post by sudosysgen »

holler wrote: post #266
sudosysgen wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't entirely true, though. SARS-CoV-2 is much less virulent than SARS or MERS. For a virus that recently crossed the zoonotic barrier, and even moreso for one crossing from bats, it's virulence is actually astonishingly low. Therefore, the hypothesis of a two-stage crossing to humans, from bats to a larger land based mammal and then to humans is much much more likely, because this would explain high transmissi…

> A virus being engineered to be an order of magnitude less virulent seems unlikely to say the least. From what I gathered it’s not suggesting specific genetic traits were engineered, but rather that they were experimenting and one of those experiments could have accidentally been released(?).

Yes, but is the theory is that one experiment, in the context of a gain analysis, was made in order to see how the virus might evolve to be much less severe?

Why would a gain analysis try to find ways in which a virus could be made weaker? I don't doubt that an accidental release is feasible, though very very unlikely, but why would an experiment make a less severe virus in the first place?

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#270

Post by holler »

sudosysgen wrote: post #269
holler wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A virus being engineered to be an order of magnitude less virulent seems unlikely to say the least. From what I gathered it’s not suggesting specific genetic traits were engineered, but rather that they were experimenting and one of those experiments could have accidentally been released(?).

Yes, but is the theory is that one experiment, in the context of a gain analysis, was made in order to see how the virus might evolve to be much less severe? Why would a gain analysis try to find ways in which a virus could be made weaker? I don't doubt that an accidental release is feasible, though very very unlikely, but why would an experiment make a less severe virus in the first place?

Good question! But I just write javascript :) very interesting stuff
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