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The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

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Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#211

Post by dwaltrip »

dionian wrote: post #164
lovehashbrowns wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Biology, and the universe in general, aren't always intuitive. I'm also completely flabbergasted that you take 1 person's opinion, despite it being the opposite of the opinions of a general educated scientific community, and you take that one person's opinion more seriously. And apparently you are not a historian, either, because we've had viruses spread in humans in the past. I don't see how this being a naturally-m…

is there evidence that it's not?

Every single pandemic in history was naturally occurring, so I think it makes sense for our priors to be weighted towards COVID-19 being a natural occurrence like all others.

Substantial evidence and compelling arguments can overcome these priors. But it’s a big claim with huge implications so I think caution is warranted.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#212

Post by salawat »

dolmen wrote: post #152
drtillberg wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luc Montagnier's theory is inconvenient in two ways: 1. it suggests that academic research concerning viruses is potentially catastrophically hazardous and 2. he predicted that the pandemic will dissapate all on its own because the manipulated aspects of the virus will not survive long.[1] These are truly fascinating claims, especially the second, which despite the credibility and stature of the source, have been tar…

Luc Montagnier has long lost any credibility in his home country, France.

Fritz Haber wasn't exactly super popular well... anywhere for contributions to WWI or WWII. Doesn't mean he was any less credible as chemist.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#214

Post by neilwilson »

maest wrote: post #39
chrisco255 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do the background checking? Why not just consider the arguments on their merits alone? That's what science is.

I disagree. Or rather, I don't think this is about doing science. In many aspects of our lives we rely on the advice of experts. Personally, as I am not a trained biologist, I am unable to reliably decide if the arguments here are right or wrong. I also believe the vast majoriy of people are in a similar position. As a result, the only options are to look at: 1. The scientific consensus. 2. The legitimacy of the peop…

Who says an expert is an expert?

Catholic priests are all experts in catholicism. They write papers about Catholicism, all peer reviewed by other experts in catholicism.

Most agree the Pope is infallible.

Groupthink is still Groupthink and belief is still belief. Hence why we have debacles like the lipid hypothesis.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#216

Post by yters »

I ran a blast query against the cov2 glycoprotein that binds to human ACE2, and it just pops out of nowhere in 2020. There is a difference of like 30 amino acids from anything that came before, which is much too great to be explained by the coronavirus wild mutation rate of 1 nucleotide every thousand years. So, possibilities are it is a strain that has evaded researchers till now, some natural phenomenon vastly accelerated its mutation towards infecting humans, or it is genetically engineered.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#217

Post by zaroth »

IAmEveryone wrote: post #125
mjirv wrote: post #79

Epidemiologist Ellie Murray said it better than I could, so I’ll just quote her: “Yes, the chance of a virus like SARS-CoV-2 suddenly arising is fairly low. That’s why we have so few pandemics!! But conditional on being in a pandemic the chance that the virus that arises to cause it is like SARS-CoV-2 is super high!! There’s no conspiracy, just statistics”[0] That said, the fact that the outbreak started so close to…

To quote Feynman: "I just saw a car with the license plate . The probability of that happening is far lower than being hit by lightning! As to the laboratory being close: it wasn't accidentally located in Wuhan. The city is the regional centre for a region that only recently expanded into somewhat pristine nature. With ongoing and constant encroachment of natural habitats, there is far more contact between wild speci…

Feynman is making a joke which people who understand priors would get, but you’re using the punchline as if it means something.

If Feynman had guessed the plate number before seeing it (say, written a research paper identify the exact number ahead of time) then something miraculous indeed just occurred.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#218

Post by yters »

Also weird is Fauci both promoted this sort of research and oversaw the funding line that went to the Wuhan lab that funded a very similar research in 2019. My theory is this is an accidental lab outbreak, and Fauci is advising because he knows the cause and is trying to undo his mistake.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#219

Post by hatsunearu »

ReflectedImage wrote: post #146
Gatsky wrote: post #86

This is very unlikely. The technology to design a virus reliably just isn't there. What is much more likely is that a lab was studying coronavirus isolates from animals, and had a failure of containment. This has happened multiple times before (eg. with small pox). But even then it is a moot point, because there is no way China, or any country for that matter, would admit they unleashed a global pandemic. Can you ima…

The technology to design a virus has been around for a decade. You need a computer, a biology degree and 8 dollars. 8 dollars is the cost for a lab to synthesize your virus and put in a container (you may also have to pay postage). It's really really cheap.

By the way, if you try making bioweapons this way, there are automated systems that will identify it and send the black helicopters instead of your package.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#220

Post by hatsunearu »

Gatsky wrote: post #150
ReflectedImage wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The technology to design a virus has been around for a decade. You need a computer, a biology degree and 8 dollars. 8 dollars is the cost for a lab to synthesize your virus and put in a container (you may also have to pay postage). It's really really cheap.

You are confusing ‘making’ a virus with designing one with particular virulence and transmission characteristics. The latter is what I am talking about.

Other guy said it but looks like the scientists figured that exact thing out...
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