The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#141

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jul 18, 2020, 1:55 AM UTC

addicted wrote: post #134

mjirv wrote: post #79

Epidemiologist Ellie Murray said it better than I could, so I’ll just quote her: “Yes, the chance of a virus like SARS-CoV-2 suddenly arising is fairly low. That’s why we have so few pandemics!! But conditional on being in a pandemic the chance that the virus that arises to cause it is like SARS-CoV-2 is super high!! There’s no conspiracy, just statistics”[0] That said, the fact that the outbreak started so close to…

This is the same stuff that causes conspiracy theories around airplane crashes. The conspiracists go “It must be a conspiracy because there are like these 6 redundant safety mechanisms and the odds of them all failing at the same time are extremely low”. But the answer is obvious. If the 6 redundant mechanisms hadn’t failed, the plane wouldn’t crash. So as long as the odds of failure of each redundant system is not 0…

[deleted]

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#142

Post by mjirv » Sat, Jul 18, 2020, 1:58 AM UTC

jkhdigital wrote: post #132

mjirv wrote: post #79

Epidemiologist Ellie Murray said it better than I could, so I’ll just quote her: “Yes, the chance of a virus like SARS-CoV-2 suddenly arising is fairly low. That’s why we have so few pandemics!! But conditional on being in a pandemic the chance that the virus that arises to cause it is like SARS-CoV-2 is super high!! There’s no conspiracy, just statistics”[0] That said, the fact that the outbreak started so close to…

> the chance that the virus that arises to cause it is like SARS-CoV-2 is super high This statement obscures and oversimplifies, which is unfortunately what scientists sometimes do when speaking to the public because they assume people won't understand otherwise. When she says "like SARS-CoV-2" she is not speaking about the physical structure of the virus, she is really just referring to general qualities that a viru…

It is worth clarifying that she was not responding to this paper specifically, just to general arguments of the type “this must be man made because it has so many features that make it well-suited to spread in humans.”

The fact that researchers in Wuhan were studying (some of?) these features is stronger evidence when combined with the location. However, it also seems reasonable that features of viruses researchers study because of their likelihood to increase human transmission would show up in a naturally occurring virus with a lot of human transmission.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#143

Post by dolmen » Sat, Jul 18, 2020, 2:01 AM UTC

cryptica wrote: post #35

When Nobel laureate Luc Montagnier suggested that COVID-19 could be man-made, I started taking this view more seriously. Now seeing additional papers coming out supporting this, the case is getting stronger. I'm not a biologist but I do find it strange that COVID-19 is so infectious in humans. How can a virus which supposedly 'naturally evolved' in a totally unrelated animal species (bats) be so well adapted to sprea…

When Nobel laureate Luc Montagnier suggested that COVID-19 could be man-made, I started taking this view LESS seriously.

https://science.thewire.in/the-sciences/luc-montagnier-coron...

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#144

Post by pmayrgundter » Sat, Jul 18, 2020, 2:02 AM UTC

jkhdigital wrote: post #127

Here's the Cliff Notes version of the argument in this paper: 1. SARS-CoV-2 has a number of unique and unusual genetic features, when compared to close relatives, many of which explain its high virulence and infectivity among humans. 2. A series of research papers published by a group of virologists, dating back a little over a decade, demonstrate (1) a progressively increasing understanding of viral features which m…

Good summary, thanks!

Related to the origin hypotheses, the hypothesis of zoonotic outbreak from a wet market in mid-Dec no longer seems as relevant. It was first laid out in a widely disseminated paper in The Lancet [1, see Figure 1B], but since then retrospective wastewater analyses from Italy[2], Spain[3], Brazil and others[4] have found it was circulating much earlier.

"The Italian National Institute of Health looked at 40 sewage samples collected from wastewater treatment plants in northern Italy between October 2019 and February 2020. An analysis released on Thursday said samples taken in Milan and Turin on Dec. 18 showed the presence of the SARS-Cov-2 virus." [2]

and

"Most COVID-19 cases show mild influenza-like symptoms (14) and it has been suggested that some uncharacterized influenza cases may have masked COVID-19 cases in the 2019-2020 season (11). This possibility prompted us to analyze some archival WWTP samples from January 2018 to December 2019 (Figure 2). All samples came out to be negative for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 genomes with the exception of March 12, 2019, in which both IP2 and IP4 target assays were positive. This striking finding indicates circulation of the virus in Barcelona long before the report of any COVID-19 case worldwide." [3]

[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7159299/ [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-... [3] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v... [4] https://twitter.com/LMeigre/status/1282819131390210050

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#145

Post by CryptoPunk » Sat, Jul 18, 2020, 2:05 AM UTC

thinker912345 wrote: post #120

robbiep wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the same logic, was the H1N1 spanish flu designed to perfectly flourish and kill possibly 10% of hosts? You say it in your second paragraph. You're no biologist. But you find it strange. Very few biologists find it strange. They have in fact been warning of a ticking time bomb [0 for brevity, 1 for article]. May I respectfully suggest that you stick to your lane regarding the science? WHO ups and downs and politic…

The H1N1 flu spread during the first world war that humanity has ever had. It came in waves and each wave was evolved. Talk about extremely unique circumstances to brew the perfect storm. When COVID-19 spread, there was literally nothing different occuring at the time that could have provoked any evolutionary changes in any virus to be more evolved in infecting humans outside of normal human density levels. Flu virus…

To expand on your first point, the circumstances of World War 1 led to carriers of the asymptomatic strains of H1N1 staying in place, in trenches, where the strains extinguished themselves for lack of hosts to spread to.

Carriers of the more symptomatic strains were transported to military hospitals which acted as conduits of transmission.

The result was the virus progressively evolving to become more deadly.

The first wave of the Spanish flu had a fatality rate that is typical of the flu, with deaths preponderantly amongst the elderly, which again is typical.

The second wave was massively more deadly, and killed the young in large numbers.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Transmission_and_m...

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#146

Post by ReflectedImage » Sat, Jul 18, 2020, 2:05 AM UTC

Gatsky wrote: post #86

This is very unlikely. The technology to design a virus reliably just isn't there. What is much more likely is that a lab was studying coronavirus isolates from animals, and had a failure of containment. This has happened multiple times before (eg. with small pox). But even then it is a moot point, because there is no way China, or any country for that matter, would admit they unleashed a global pandemic. Can you ima…

The technology to design a virus has been around for a decade. You need a computer, a biology degree and 8 dollars. 8 dollars is the cost for a lab to synthesize your virus and put in a container (you may also have to pay postage). It's really really cheap.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#147

Post by FabHK » Sat, Jul 18, 2020, 2:06 AM UTC

mhh__ wrote: post #52

contravariant wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the sake of argument, something like Einstein's special relativity had little to no evidence backing it up, but was still accepted simply because it provided a more elegant explanation of several concepts. Of course it also had a few weird, testable, consequences that where later confirmed experimentally. All this is just to illustrate that it's not always easy to prove something right away with large amounts of…

Einstein's special relativity had lots of evidence backing it up in that existing (Galilean) relativity was completely at odds with electromagnetism. The speed of light is constant, Newton was wrong. In this situation there is no smoking gun to prove it was made in a lab.

> Einstein's special relativity had lots of evidence backing it up

Yes, it immediately solved several outstanding anomalies. GP should have brought up Einstein’s general relativity as something that had little evidence to back it up initially.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#148

Post by polynomial » Sat, Jul 18, 2020, 2:07 AM UTC

IAmEveryone wrote: post #125

mjirv wrote: post #79

Epidemiologist Ellie Murray said it better than I could, so I’ll just quote her: “Yes, the chance of a virus like SARS-CoV-2 suddenly arising is fairly low. That’s why we have so few pandemics!! But conditional on being in a pandemic the chance that the virus that arises to cause it is like SARS-CoV-2 is super high!! There’s no conspiracy, just statistics”[0] That said, the fact that the outbreak started so close to…

To quote Feynman: "I just saw a car with the license plate . The probability of that happening is far lower than being hit by lightning! As to the laboratory being close: it wasn't accidentally located in Wuhan. The city is the regional centre for a region that only recently expanded into somewhat pristine nature. With ongoing and constant encroachment of natural habitats, there is far more contact between wild speci…

Source for your rate of contact claim?

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#149

Post by robbiep » Sat, Jul 18, 2020, 2:09 AM UTC

nothal wrote: post #99

robbiep wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the same logic, was the H1N1 spanish flu designed to perfectly flourish and kill possibly 10% of hosts? You say it in your second paragraph. You're no biologist. But you find it strange. Very few biologists find it strange. They have in fact been warning of a ticking time bomb [0 for brevity, 1 for article]. May I respectfully suggest that you stick to your lane regarding the science? WHO ups and downs and politic…

I understand your impetus to tell others to 'stick to your lane' but I respectfully disagree and cite their post and your response as why. OP had what you deem a misapprehension and they deem a valid point. By voicing their point as they believes it, you were able to retort with evidence you feel should convincingly disprove it. To me, this is reasoned, diverse discourse correcting for unintuitive misapprehensions, a…

It’s taken me a little while to parse this one.

HN has always felt like a good/safe place (to me) to talk about interesting things with a mix of experts and lay people.

When it gets down to science though, agree or disagree need to be left to the experts. I can’t be the expert/final arbiter because my knowledge isn’t good enough (although I have some capacity), and so I am encouraging OP to go with the experts on this one. It’s too complex a field for people to have their own opinions based on hearsays - science should not be politics and we’re seeing that in the world now. It doesn’t matter what you believe coming in with science, you have to be guided by (a best approximation of the evolving) facts.

I’m not totally sure what you disagree on, is it the rudeness of ‘stay in your lane’ or my argument?

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#150

Post by Gatsky » Sat, Jul 18, 2020, 2:11 AM UTC

ReflectedImage wrote: post #146

Gatsky wrote: post #86

This is very unlikely. The technology to design a virus reliably just isn't there. What is much more likely is that a lab was studying coronavirus isolates from animals, and had a failure of containment. This has happened multiple times before (eg. with small pox). But even then it is a moot point, because there is no way China, or any country for that matter, would admit they unleashed a global pandemic. Can you ima…

The technology to design a virus has been around for a decade. You need a computer, a biology degree and 8 dollars. 8 dollars is the cost for a lab to synthesize your virus and put in a container (you may also have to pay postage). It's really really cheap.

You are confusing ‘making’ a virus with designing one with particular virulence and transmission characteristics. The latter is what I am talking about.