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The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

minervanett.no

121–130 of 494 posts

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#121

Its likely that Viruses like COVID-19 have come and gone over time, and been completely unnoticed. The difference being now that we have much older and elderly populations, often with chronic health conditions and deficiencies, kept alive 'artificially' by modern healthcare. For example, approximately 50% of COVID deaths are to people in nursing homes. Without this population, the virus would be put down as regular i…

That same modern healthcare is making the covid death rate much lower than it would be otherwise.

We've had plenty of people hospitalized who were not so sick and elderly that they depended on modern medicine to stay alive. Without modern hospital care, more of them would die.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#122
post #34
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least if it was someone's "fault" we could push for reparations

At this point, who could actually pay reparations on a scale that would be even within an order of magnitude of the damage done?

$20-$30 trillion in damages for 2020-2022 is a reasonable estimate (taking into account hits to economic output, budgets, stock markets, some reasonable number for lives lost & human suffering). China could come up with $2-$3 trillion as reparations. $30t is likely a bit high (and $10t would be too low).

The global economy is unlikely to shrink more than 5-7% this year (call it a $4 to $6 trillion contraction). I believe the IMF and Worldbank are both around 5% contraction as their guesses. It will likely resume growth in 2021. Most of the major stock markets are being propped up and haven't suffered horribly. The big damage has been in lives lost, suffering caused (in numerous ways), and the social financial cost in budgets (blown out budgets, debt, unemployment, etc.). There will be ongoing unemployment costs for years post vaccine, which I've assumed in the $20-$30 trillion figure.

That 1/10th figure is not the problem. China could come up with $300b per year over ten years. The problem is they'll pay those reparations over their dead body, so to speak.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#123
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do the background checking? Why not just consider the arguments on their merits alone? That's what science is.

Can't speak for the OP, but for myself: I am not qualified to evaluate the evidence in this case; I just don't have the biology background. But sometimes when you get some out-there questionable sounding stuff research, and you spend a minute googling, you quickly find out that the journal the thing is published in is chaired by the author and itself has no credibility, the author is selling some form of snake oil di…

> I am not qualified to evaluate the evidence in this case; I just don't have the biology background.

A "background check" does not change this fact, nor does your point actually negate the comment you are responding too. No one here is arguing that you must listen and believe everything that someone has written in a paper, but things must be proven and disproven.

"Background checking" in any form is not science. It might help you make a decision. But that does not make the decision a scientific one even if you consider it "an informed" decision.

To be completely honest, it has become silly that things like this need to be said and reirerated so often on HN.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#124

When Nobel laureate Luc Montagnier suggested that COVID-19 could be man-made, I started taking this view more seriously. Now seeing additional papers coming out supporting this, the case is getting stronger. I'm not a biologist but I do find it strange that COVID-19 is so infectious in humans. How can a virus which supposedly 'naturally evolved' in a totally unrelated animal species (bats) be so well adapted to sprea…

[deleted]

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#125
post #79

Epidemiologist Ellie Murray said it better than I could, so I’ll just quote her: “Yes, the chance of a virus like SARS-CoV-2 suddenly arising is fairly low. That’s why we have so few pandemics!! But conditional on being in a pandemic the chance that the virus that arises to cause it is like SARS-CoV-2 is super high!! There’s no conspiracy, just statistics”[0] That said, the fact that the outbreak started so close to…

To quote Feynman: "I just saw a car with the license plate . The probability of that happening is far lower than being hit by lightning!

As to the laboratory being close: it wasn't accidentally located in Wuhan. The city is the regional centre for a region that only recently expanded into somewhat pristine nature. With ongoing and constant encroachment of natural habitats, there is far more contact between wild species and humans than there is in Europe/North America, or even other Chinese regions.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#127
Here's the Cliff Notes version of the argument in this paper:

1. SARS-CoV-2 has a number of unique and unusual genetic features, when compared to close relatives, many of which explain its high virulence and infectivity among humans.

2. A series of research papers published by a group of virologists, dating back a little over a decade, demonstrate (1) a progressively increasing understanding of viral features which make coronaviruses more infectious and virulent in humans, and (2) laboratory capabilities for successfully creating chimeric viruses (e.g. moving one specific protein sequence from a bat SARS-like virus to human SARS virus) to test their hypotheses.

3. Each of the unique and unusual features of SARS-CoV-2 appears somewhere in this line of research.

4. Researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, located in the city where the outbreak began, were intimately involved this line of research.

Taken together, the publicly-available evidence indicates that a select group of virologists had the domain knowledge and laboratory capabilities to create chimeric viruses which possess each of the unusual features of SARS-CoV-2, and that select group of virologists was concentrated at the Wuhan Institute of Virology located at ground zero for the pandemic.

The authors feel that, in light of this preponderance of circumstantial evidence, the hypothesis that the biogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 involved human intervention should be seen as the leading (i.e. most likely) explanation.

They do not make any statement about how the virus first infected a live human and spread into a pandemic, but conditioned on their biogenesis hypothesis being true, one would then assume an accidental lab release from WIV as the most likely explanation.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#128
post #79

Epidemiologist Ellie Murray said it better than I could, so I’ll just quote her: “Yes, the chance of a virus like SARS-CoV-2 suddenly arising is fairly low. That’s why we have so few pandemics!! But conditional on being in a pandemic the chance that the virus that arises to cause it is like SARS-CoV-2 is super high!! There’s no conspiracy, just statistics”[0] That said, the fact that the outbreak started so close to…

Well, sadly, the damage is done. And it has certainly exposed our unpreparedness, broken/outdated protocols among agencies and exposed deep divisions in these United States. Just imagine if this is a test case, we’ve really exposed ourselves. I am quite certain our adversaries are watching and learning.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#129
post #79

Epidemiologist Ellie Murray said it better than I could, so I’ll just quote her: “Yes, the chance of a virus like SARS-CoV-2 suddenly arising is fairly low. That’s why we have so few pandemics!! But conditional on being in a pandemic the chance that the virus that arises to cause it is like SARS-CoV-2 is super high!! There’s no conspiracy, just statistics”[0] That said, the fact that the outbreak started so close to…

> But conditional on being in a pandemic the chance that the virus that arises to cause it is like SARS-CoV-2 is super high!!

This will be misinterpreted by everyone who doesn't understand the Bayes rule (which is 99.999% of the population). What she's saying is just a fancy version of "this is the kind of a virus that would likely cause a pandemic", nothing more.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#130
post #126

This forbes blog piece contains a compilation of refutations attempt for the said theory https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/06/07/controver...

This seemed mostly fluff and argument from authority to me, with the main substantial counterpoint this:

> Gunnveig Grødeland, vaccine researcher at the University of Oslo, is one of the scientists voicing their disagreement with Sørensen. She explains that what Sørensen referred to as "inserted sequences" can enable the development of a more serious disease, but this is not unusual in nature: "Examples can be found in other viruses including subtypes of influenza (including "bird flu"), HIV, and several human coronaviruses (MERS, OC43, HKU1)." Grødeland also says that Sørensen's paper offered no biological confirmation on the relevance of positively charged patches.

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