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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#871

Post by mac01021 »

jordanbeiber wrote: post #473
mac01021 wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The bottom 85% (in income terms) of the global population contribute very little to unsustainability. Is that true? What percent do they contribute?

This should give you a rough idea. https://www.overshootday.org/newsroom/country-overshoot-days... > Not all countries will have an overshoot day. By way of the country overshoot equation above, a country will only have an overshoot day if their Ecological Footprint per person is greater than global biocapacity per person (1.63 gha). There’s a lot of countries not listed, i.e they do not overshoot.

I'm still wrapping my head around the meaning of those overshoot days.

A person's ecological footprint is a multifaceted thing for which I think a single number cannot necessarily provide a very meaningful summary.

But here's some other data, that considers only CO2 emissions: https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emi...

It groups by country rather than income level but, reading between the lines, it seems to me almost certain that the bottom 85% (in income) of people emit more than half of the global total.

BTW it is important to consider that a large fraction of the emissions from countries like China and India are in the service of consumption in wealthy western countries. But, I googled, and even in a famously export-heavy country like China, exports only account for 17% of the GDP.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#872

Post by banannaise »

pharke wrote: post #661
fiblye wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The demand for labor will go up, the supply will go down. Bad for the investor class looking for profits, good for reducing economic inequality. People will be able to profit from labor again. I'm not so sure about that. Loads of wealth is consolidated at the top, both in terms of economic class and age. People who got their jobs and attained management positions after barely graduating high school are demanding ba…

I think we need to ask ourselves why some of those things are the case. Why are the same jobs requiring higher levels of education now than they did in the past? If you've worked these jobs you know they don't require anything past a highschool education. Why is housing seen as something that must constantly increase in value? It doesn't, we've been through housing bubbles but people still cling to this belief and co…

"Why are we not funding these sectors when they are so essential to the functioning of our society? Where is the existing funding going, specifically whose pockets does it wind up in?"

Because there is no capitalist imperative to keep people alive. If investors and landowners can't make any money producing food, then no food will be produced beyond that which is needed to feed the investors and landowners.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#873

Post by banannaise »

ryandrake wrote: post #840
fiblye wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The demand for labor will go up, the supply will go down. Bad for the investor class looking for profits, good for reducing economic inequality. People will be able to profit from labor again. I'm not so sure about that. Loads of wealth is consolidated at the top, both in terms of economic class and age. People who got their jobs and attained management positions after barely graduating high school are demanding ba…

> There are already endless reports of there being insufficient workers for agricultural jobs, nursing, teachers, etc. Wages haven't risen to meet the demand. They've remained stagnant or dropped in the long term. Meanwhile, those at the top are richer than ever. Insufficient/shrinking supply of a good, but prices going down instead of up? What economics are in play here?

Inelastic demand and cartel behavior. People require jobs to survive; survival is an inelastic good; businesses know this; they work together to suppress wages to as close to subsistence level as possible.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#874

Post by pstuart »

iso1631 wrote: post #498
pstuart wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are on the cusp of the next step of humanity (if we don't kill ourselves first). I think this story lays out how that could look: https://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

A choice of two dystopias, yeay

Did you read the story all the way through? If we're going to live in a world dominated by AI/Automation it presents a compelling alternative to the current path.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#875

Post by Xcelerate »

LargesseBargess wrote: post #813
Xcelerate wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I grew up in Georgia (metro suburbs and later GT in Atlanta) and moved to the Bay Area two years ago. Georgia offers a very nice quality of life at a great price, but in my opinion the Bay Area has it beat in absolute terms on just about everything except friendliness: food, weather, nature, jobs, art, culture, proximity to other interesting places (further drive but more interesting when you get there), universities…

>food, weather, nature, jobs, art, culture, proximity to other interesting places (further drive but more interesting when you get there), universities, international diversity With a little either self-starting or help from the local authorities, there's no reason another town/city/state couldn't have these unless there is such destitution it's in some kind of death spiral. Every place has it's own niche, their own…

I didn’t move away from a bad situation at all. I liked living in Georgia. It’s just that I like living in the Bay Area better.

Also, one of the major reasons I like Redwood City is the almost constant sunshine and moderate temperatures. That has a really positive effect on my mood, especially during the winter. There’s no way to get that in the southeast short of altering the climate.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#877

Post by iso1631 »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #749
iso1631 wrote: post #669

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If an 80 year old no longer contributes to society, and all they have is pieces of paper indicating they used to contribute in the past, they are relying on people who do contribute (by fixing toilets, growing food whatever) to accept those pieces of paper. They will only do so if they feel they are getting enough of those pieces of paper, and if they will believe those pieces of paper will work in the future. The he…

Goods and services do move across borders, though. A single country’s economy doesn’t exist in a sealed bottle. Those pieces of paper can be traded for foreign goods and services. Now if the whole world was 90% elderly you might have a point.

That's the whole point of the article - immigration is no longer the solution, the ratio of working:retired is falling.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#878

Post by anthony_barker »

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

If you look at The Black Death - great for young workers. Shit for land owning royalty.

Same stuff

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#879

Post by [deleted] »

nostromo wrote: post #391
gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

[deleted]

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#880

Post by yownie »

scottLobster wrote: post #707
twelve40 wrote: post #618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you raise your children well straight up no true Scotsman. Literally, no true Scotsman.

Not really, it's a valid correlation that children raised well generally have better relationships with their parents. Sometimes children are raised well and turn out to be little shits, but given that we're not drafting a scientific study in the comment section conversational generalities should be forgiven, unless you want every conversation to be so paralyzed by pedantry that no real content is discussed.

> it's a valid correlation

could you show us that data on that correlation to us from somewhere besides out your ass then?

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