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TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

asia.nikkei.com

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Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#201

Post by systemvoltage »

abrowne wrote: post #136
systemvoltage wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn’t make sense. > On the mainland if you are a leading expert in this field or that, or belong to specific establishments (such as public security or state security) you cannot exit the country without permission from higher up the food chain. That alone will be enough to deter people from moving to China for even 10x salary. Getting locked into an insane Han-supremacy regime is walking into the dragon’s mou…

It would be less a deterrence for someone from Taiwan, with linguistic, cultural and maybe family connections to China than it would be for someone with no connection to the Sinosphere. And it's not like they're getting locked into Belgium. (I like Belgium! But it's a small place compared with China.)

I personally know people in a large semiconductor company in China that moved to Vietnam having been born there with a family and 2 kids.

Which is kind of insane to think about. I don’t know them too well otherwise I’d ask them of their reasons for moving permanently out of China.

Just that I have a sample size of 1, so take it with a grain of salt.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#202

Post by T-A »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #97
onepointsixC wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an extremely naive point of view. The CCP is a revisionist, expansionist rising power that already has been actively committing genocide of Uyghurs. It has more territorial disputes than it has physical neighbors. They want this, and have been fighting for this all this time.

Dude, you should check the map of the Qing, compare it to the Republic of China (Taiwan), then compare it to the PRC. They ceded a whole lot of land all over the place, peacefully, as part of negotiations. For example the whole of Mongolia was part of Qing. They are not as war mongering as you believe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_Peo...

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#203

Post by jbhouse »

nafey wrote: post #148
birdyrooster wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their monoculture provides a lower ceiling for capability than the world at large. We aren't remotely fucked.

What you are calling monoculture is somewhere around 1/6th population of the world. If you take into the account the inroads that China has made into Africa, Middle East and Eastern Europe we might be seeing ourselves entering another phase of the cold war.

I worry that you're right about this. I've been saying for a while now that I expect Africa to be a continent on which the US and China wage a new cold war

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#204

Post by ttul »

caycep wrote: post #38
ttul wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The next shoe to drop will be if ASML cuts off Chinese chipmakers. ASML absolutely dominates fab tech.

That's what I am wondering about. Is ASML the weak point? Would a US, Taiwan, or other company be able to develop and manufacture comparable lithography or EUV machines, or do they essentially have a chokehold on the market for now?

You can't fast-track the technology developed by ASML. We're talking about a company with 4,000 engineers (correct me if I'm wrong btw) who have been working on lithography magic for decades. EUV took decades of dedicated research to finally become a reality just in the past few years. They literally vaporize tin into a plasma in order to create the EUV light, which then has to pass through incredibly complex optics on its way to the mask. 97% of the light is lost on its way to the target... This thing consumes megawatts. It's literally magic.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#205

Post by PopeDotNinja »

bgee wrote: post #23
ArkVark wrote: post #4

Why does this feel like the USA cutting Japan off from metal and oil shipments months before WW2?

> months before WW2 What's the definition of WW2 here? US supplied oil and metal to Japan until 1941 [0], 3 years after Japan invaded China [1]. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Events_leading_to_the_attack_o... [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sino-Japanese_War

My dad's uncle fought for the USA in the Pacific. At one point during the war, he was close to a Japanese bomb when it exploded. He survived. The interesting part of this story is that some scrap metal from the bomb had a stamp that said "Framingham, Massachusetts". He was from Northampton, MA, and he'd almost been kill by scrap metal made at a factory less than 100 miles from his home.

https://goo.gl/maps/npoRDeSFHKcXVKjQ6

Bonus story: My dad's uncle was scheduled to get out of the Army on December 8, 1941. He was on a ship from Pearl Harbor to San Francisco. When his ship got the news that the Japanese had bombed Pearl Harbor, his shipped turned right around. He was in the infantry, and he spent the next 3+ years fighting in the Pacific, including storming 4 beaches (e.g. just like storming the beaches of Normandy in the first scene of Saving Private Ryan). His battalion had 250% turnover during the war, and by the end of the conflict, he and 1 other guy were the only original soldiers left.

Bonus bonus story: He told me about a time when the Japanese were shelling US soldiers from the top of a hill with an artillery piece. The artillery was hiding behind some pretty thick trees, and was hard to target, so the US decided to have soldiers run up the hill in a direct attack. I guess it's smarter to charge artillery that's shooting at you if you have no place to hide? Anyway, it was a trap. As most of the soldiers got close to the top of the hill, the Japanese fled. It turned out the Japanese had stuffed the hill with explosives, and they blew that hill up big time. My dad's uncle was towards the rear of the charge, and he got knocked out from the shockwave of the explosion. When he awake, he was buried up to his waist in dirt and surrounded by the body parts of his fellow soldiers. Holy crap :P

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#206

Post by smilekzs »

vsskanth wrote: post #187
actuator wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, for a Chinese expat the path to permanent residency or citizenship is hard, so moving back would have that as a positive as well.

Curious, is it hard because of the backlog or other reasons ? I understand there is a 5-6 year wait for a green card for Chinese born.

That, plus policy instability like the recent H-1B ban. Effect of instability is amplified by the long wait --- the longer you wait, the more likely some policy changes and hurt your bottom line. It is true that something good could happen too, but (1) the current "climate" does not suggest that (2) a H-1B holder with a priority date has more to lose than to gain (through policy changes).

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#207

Post by jcranmer »

actuator wrote: post #128
IgorPartola wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is anybody going to go to war with Russia, China, or the US though? All three of these countries are too big and difficult to invade. You would quite literally have to decimate any one of them to keep hold of it. And economically it would be extremely unprofitable to the US and China. Russia could theoretically gain quite a bit if it managed to annex China but there is the whole issue of how would you even go about t…

Yeah, you are right. Wars between these three are going to be proxy or economic. I think actual war is unlikely between any two of these three but I think skirmishes are very likely. Russia and China/US I doubt as Russia doesn't seem to have a concern which overlaps with the interest from other two on ground except Syria I guess, but between US and China, South China Sea might become a flashpoint if they both keep pu…

Russia, as an ailing/former superpower, is quite sensitive to foreign incursions into its sphere of influence, especially the former USSR. Its wars against Ukraine and Georgia were motivated in large part by the fact that said countries were maneuvering closer to NATO and the West, for example. Conflict between Russia and China over expanding Chinese influence in Central Asia (given Chinese investment into infrastructure there) is not impossible.

Another flashpoint between Russia and China could well be the Russian Far East; Russia has long been pretty paranoid that China is going to try to claim the land as its own.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#208

Post by lihan »

kevin_b_er wrote: post #118
trsohmers wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming when you say China you mean the UN recognized "China", then they do not have any control over TSMC.

This is a threat to Taiwan that China will just invade it and take whatever, including nationalizing TSMC.

It's an threat in some people's imagination.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#209

Post by fermienrico »

ahelwer wrote: post #199
fermienrico wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to hundreds of thousands of Indian, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Philippino, Taiwanese, etc immigrants that work here in the tech industry. I am a little bit speechless at all this vile of anti-US propaganda. It is insane .

As a Canadian living in the US: it really isn't. The US wants to believe it isn't a dumpster fire but beyond its natural beauty (literally the Chinese name for America means "beautiful country", of which I'm jealous because the Chinese name for Canada is Jianada) and high salary there are so, so many reasons why it is not a very desirable place to live. Institutional racism and a comically horrible healthcare system…

> One big benefit of living there is you won't be bombed by the US military, I guess.

US Military bombs Canadians living in Canada? I didn't know, source?

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#210

Post by lihan »

catalogia wrote: post #122
slim wrote: post #33

China will nationalize TSMC

You mean after invading Taiwan? TSMC is in the Republic of China , not the People's Republic of China. They're not, for practical intents and purposes, the same country.

Search "1992 Consensus"
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