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The global fertility rate is falling

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#851

Post by scottLobster »

frenchyatwork wrote: post #792
scottLobster wrote: post #727

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize there's probably never been a better time to be alive except for maybe 50 years ago, right? (depending on which part of the world you're in) Yes life continues to be harsh, brutal and tragic. It always has been and in some ways always will be. But if your kids are doomed to live in merely the 2nd best civilization humanity has ever produced, I don't think they have much to complain about relatively speaki…

> It's more selfish IMO to make yourself the arbiter of your unborn childrens' future This is a pretty bizarre statement. If you had a pet dog, would you consider it immoral to not provide that dog with a mate, so they could flood the world with puppies?

If your only argument to not providing a mate was "the state of the world", I would say yes. There are other arguments that carry far more weight in that regard.

It's extremely weak/arrogant to take a look at "the state of the world" (typically via news/blogs/etc) and then declare you absolutely know the future, and it sucks so hard that there's no way your children will have a decent life under any circumstances, regardless of your personal situation.

There are many valid reasons not to have kids, "the state of the world" isn't one of them unless you're living in the middle of one of those negative news stories, and then it's less "the state of the world" and more "the state of my immediate surroundings", which is far more reasonable.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#852

Post by aluth »

gxon wrote: post #844
aluth wrote: post #776

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anyway, if you're choosing to have kids, one is enough. The real winners adopt. Not from an evolutionary standpoint, lol

Meh. The continuation of the species is more important than some silly desire to mix my own DNA into a new human. A kind of corollary to the Gay Uncle theory. I also consider the memes > genes in terms of leaving a legacy. Shaping a kid's mindset doesn't require them to share half of your genes.

I can appreciate the idea that one's work can (potentially) function as a superior alternative to children, with respect to legacy. In general, I'm all for elevating the rational part of Human mind. On the other hand, I think it's dangerous to describe the reproductive priorities of the "primitive" mind as a "silly desire". To put it more concretely, imagine a husband who has just learned that the children he's dedicated years of financial, emotional, and educational support are not his own. Imagine the gamut of emotions that cross his mind: anger/hatred toward his wife's deception; the humiliation that comes from being deceived; the conflict that comes from both loving the children, yet despising them for what they represent. How do you think that man would respond if you told him that his feelings were the consequence of a "silly desire". It's all well and good to have a world with gay uncles that support their nephews and nieces; but somebody's gotta make those nephews and nieces.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#853

Post by monodeldiablo »

oblio wrote: post #660
monodeldiablo wrote: post #630

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Croatia. Its population has been shrinking since 1991. Almost 30 years of unchecked population decline and it's still not an apocalyptic hellhole. In spite of entrenched corruption and other issues, standards of living and wages have gone up, even as the government does everything it can to destroy nascent industry and chase that tourism nickle. The more old people die, the more domestic opportunity there i…

Those aren't related. I'm from Romania, which has: 1. A higher population population than Croatia. 2. Higher emigration than Croatia. 3. A lower fertility rate than Croatia. And yes, the economy is going up despite people becoming old, dying, or just leaving the country. But the reason for that is temporary, it's because Croatia, just like Romania, is still a developing country, you're converting low productivity wor…

> What happens when active people are 1/3rd of the population or less and there are no more easy gains to be had?

Old people retire, opening up jobs for younger workers. Old people die, freeing up housing stock and capital and tax money. And these will happen long before Croatia or Romania achiever maximum productivity. There's plenty of fat left to be trimmed.

As long as the sustained rate of youth emigration is below the mortality rate -- or marginally higher while the country continues to develop -- conditions should improve for working age people (ignoring the chaos of politics).

But perhaps I'm misunderstanding your implication or just not thinking this through. Could you elaborate on some of the negatives?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#854

Post by monodeldiablo »

krakatau1 wrote: post #806
monodeldiablo wrote: post #630

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Croatia. Its population has been shrinking since 1991. Almost 30 years of unchecked population decline and it's still not an apocalyptic hellhole. In spite of entrenched corruption and other issues, standards of living and wages have gone up, even as the government does everything it can to destroy nascent industry and chase that tourism nickle. The more old people die, the more domestic opportunity there i…

I’m also from Croatia...we actually had population growth in early nineties and we are losing more people to emigration rather than natural decline. It’s myopic to think that population decline doesn’t harm us. It puts rural areas in vicious cycle of losing population -> smaller economic base -> losing population due to no economic opportunities. Also cohort of women able to give birth declines even faster thus preve…

We're unable to grow our population largely because of that unprecedented wealth. Children are no longer seen as an insurance policy, and young people are better educated, choosier about their partners, and more likely to utilize birth control.

I agree that it is sad that rural areas continue to die out -- I live in an island, so I feel this keenly -- but objectively, is that such a bad thing?

Communities don't have an innate right to exist in perpetuity, and it would be an unsustainable resource nightmare if we tried to keep them all alive.

After all, it's because of rural flight that we have huge tracts of natural parks like Velebit. That's a resource that enriches the commons, even if it came at the cost of some individual welfare. It's also vastly better for the planet.

But I feel I'm missing something. What are some more of the downsides?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#855

Post by jariel »

jessaustin wrote: post #220
jariel wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"not much will change for some time" If you look at it from much longer term perspective, it's scary because it's happening extremely fast (1 generation) within nations that have reached a certain level of material prosperity and stability. It's also 'scary' because it's never happened before. '100 years' when we will really see the effects more globally, is not a 'long time', it's a 'quite a short time'. We only eve…

The transition from 2B to 7.8B was also kind of fast: 90 years. The exponential growth we've seen recently is unique in human existence. Before the last several centuries human population growth was much slower. In fact, it seems unlikely that population growth will become that slow again without some sort of disaster scenario.

So this is slightly misleading as well, because it's a geometric curve upwards.

The 'inflection point' you're really looking for is the dawn of the Industrial Revolution.

But at least in that capacity - we know what happened: we harnessed energy and could provide for the material wellbeing of huge numbers of people, which can have it's downsides, but it's not all bad. Better 'more' than risking plunging towards nothing.

The 'downward plunge' is happening for somewhat unknown reasons, and it's fast, and we don't know when it's going to stop.

If you put on the afterburners on an airplane, and it goes up faster than expected, that makes sense. But if the airplanes starts falling out of the sky for no reason ... scary.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#856

Post by yungmodulus »

guidoism wrote: post #755
kasrkin623 wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who wants to live in Georgia though? I mean this unironically, there's not much to do in terms of entertainment and opportunities for a young 20 yo vs LA or NY

It's so interesting that the rich elites need to be entertained so much. You can have a good life just about anywhere. Only boring people get bored.

Ignoring entertainment, there’s an argument to be made that anyone who values voting wouldn’t want to be in Georgia.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#857

Post by 1123581321 »

capableweb wrote: post #518
jojobas wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps some 80% of global population would be very grateful to relocate to Georgia.

I know Americans on the internet usually view their country with rose-shaded glasses but this comment has to take the price. I don't know the number, don't think anyone does, but off the people I know, 100% would never want to move to any state in the US. Probably the real number of people wanting to immigrate to the US is closer to 0% than 100%.

15% of the world wants to move to another country. Of those, 20% want to move to the United States, the most desired location. The second most desired destination is Canada with 6%. More stats here: https://news.gallup.com/poll/245255/750-million-worldwide-mi...

One wonders who is wearing the reality-distorting glasses on HN. ;)

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#858

Post by wahern »

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

> allocate everyone some future drugs to keep them sedated

Facebook, Netflix, and Xbox don't count? (Or HN, for that matter ;)

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#859

Post by fomine3 »

quicklime wrote: post #795
creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

Why would demand for labor go up in a society with a shrinking population? Both the labor market and the consumer market draw from the general population - so I would think that a shrinking population would cause both to decrease. The net per capita effect would be for things to stay the same.

fixed amount of work is required for some task in society and some work don't need to work for increasing demand (like make a drama).

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#860

Post by capableweb »

1123581321 wrote: post #857
capableweb wrote: post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know Americans on the internet usually view their country with rose-shaded glasses but this comment has to take the price. I don't know the number, don't think anyone does, but off the people I know, 100% would never want to move to any state in the US. Probably the real number of people wanting to immigrate to the US is closer to 0% than 100%.

15% of the world wants to move to another country. Of those, 20% want to move to the United States, the most desired location. The second most desired destination is Canada with 6%. More stats here: https://news.gallup.com/poll/245255/750-million-worldwide-mi... One wonders who is wearing the reality-distorting glasses on HN. ;)

Thank you for proving my point, indeed HN (and the internet) is filled with the reality-distorted glasses :)
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