Is there a scenario in which all the major airlines collapse?
Nope. See also: Amtrak.
American Airlines to Furlough 25,000 Employees
11–20 of 23 posts
Re: American Airlines to Furlough 25,000 Employees
#12Waiting for miracle.
Re: American Airlines to Furlough 25,000 Employees
#13Is there a scenario in which all the major airlines collapse?
Bankruptcy is certainly possible, but those are something of a fact of life for the airline industry.
Re: American Airlines to Furlough 25,000 Employees
#14Is there a scenario in which all the major airlines collapse?
i think the major airlines all exist under the "too big to fail" umbrella, and will be bailed out by the goverment in some fashion before they actually collapse.
however, as long as they can cut expenses by laying off staff with no consequences, they're probably safe. previous tough times for airlines haven't been in quite the same situation where they can just cut expenses by cutting flights. i'd be more worried about the airports than the airlines - at some point, they're going to have a big backlog of fixed non-staff expenses that are no longer being covered by ramp fees.
Re: American Airlines to Furlough 25,000 Employees
#15Is there a scenario in which all the major airlines collapse?
We're not that lucky.
IIRC American has some serious debt issues but Delta and United are sufficiently solvent that they'd get bailed out.
Re: American Airlines to Furlough 25,000 Employees
#16Every morning M-F, TSA publishes daily traveler numbers for the previous day(s):
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
It’s a good snapshot of the state of air travel in the US. Yesterday’s volume was 22% of the same date a year earlier (July 14, 2019) and I expect volume may fall below 20% next week as the virus surge causes marginal travel plans to be cancelled.
The low point in absolute travelers was April 14 when 87k people flew, less than 4% (!) of the previous year’s 2.2 million.
Re: American Airlines to Furlough 25,000 Employees
#17Re: American Airlines to Furlough 25,000 Employees
#18Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nope. See also: Amtrak.
On the contrary, Amtrak represents the exact scenario that OP was asking about. It was created following the complete collapse of all the major passenger railroads.
I think the point was "there'll always be passenger service", not "the current companies will survive unscathed".
Re: American Airlines to Furlough 25,000 Employees
#19Re: American Airlines to Furlough 25,000 Employees
#20Can someone educate me what exactly is the difference between furlough and layoff?
as I understand it the big thing is retaining benefits - not that it matters if you can't pay rent. But given the US healthcare system, getting any ailment without coverage is more or less guaranteed to bankrupt you, so furlough is better than nothing I guess?