The global fertility rate is falling • Hacker News Board

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#801

Post by Auracle » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:00 PM UTC

My wife and I have been trying for nearly 3 years now. We're both healthy - we exercise, eat right, and we're in our early 30s. We were saving up for IVF all of last year so we'd be able to do it this year.

Unfortunately, I'm a photographer and COVID has destroyed the chances of that happening. Minnesota's wedding season is really short and runs from early June to late September. That means we may not have enough until the end of next summer. When you've been trying for as long as we have every month you wait is absolute torture. My wife cries regularly, and while I've held together better I've had a few absolute breakdowns.

Nothing has made me feel like more of a failure of a husband than this has. Our infertility is unexplained, so it could be my fault. Worse is the fact that I have a degree in computer science and I could have had a job that paid better in the best of times, and right now could be done remotely. It's agonizing that all of this stress and suffering could be over if we just had some more money.

The problem is for most people there's no definitive answer, and IVF success rates aren't absolutely amazing. It'll cost north of $30,000 for just one try after the actual procedure, testing, and medicine. That has less than a 50/50 chance of working. How many times should you try before giving up? I've already put two years worth of savings/retirement in to it. I honestly think insurance should be mandated to cover at least one round of IVF. Isn't making babies our entire biological reason for being?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#802

Post by minerjoe » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:02 PM UTC

scottLobster wrote: post #724

minerjoe wrote: post #639

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Be the change you wish to be in the world. How many of y'all are visiting elederly and helping them now? If you never help the elderly now, how can you expect anything else than lonliness when you are in their place? One of the most tragic results of the "modern" American life is that we throw away are elderly as obsolete while any other sane societies treates them as the holders of wisdom.

To be fair an excessive amount of power given to the elderly in the Spartan legal system also contributed to their slow decline in power as those who benefited from the status quo continuously stifled any attempts at adaptation or reform. Only a tiny minority of elders have any wisdom worth purveying in my experience. Most are as mediocre at 70 as they were at 25, and can't tell you anything except how to be as medio…

> tiny minority of elders ... in my experience

That can be true. There is a difference, in my heart, between an "Elder" and an "old person".

I would advise you, if I may, to expand your experience.

By holding onto that narrow view (can we dare call it ageism?), you could be missing out on some truly amazing individuals whom might have something very important to convey to you and your generation.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#803

Post by 1996 » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:02 PM UTC

scottLobster wrote: post #724

minerjoe wrote: post #639

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Be the change you wish to be in the world. How many of y'all are visiting elederly and helping them now? If you never help the elderly now, how can you expect anything else than lonliness when you are in their place? One of the most tragic results of the "modern" American life is that we throw away are elderly as obsolete while any other sane societies treates them as the holders of wisdom.

To be fair an excessive amount of power given to the elderly in the Spartan legal system also contributed to their slow decline in power as those who benefited from the status quo continuously stifled any attempts at adaptation or reform. Only a tiny minority of elders have any wisdom worth purveying in my experience. Most are as mediocre at 70 as they were at 25, and can't tell you anything except how to be as medio…

Finally a post I can wholeheartedly agree with!

Most of everything is trash, there are no exceptions -- if we think there is an exception somewhere, it often comes from emotional bias.

Old or young, most people live a dull live of no practical value. People may be angry to hear that, but the fact they don't try to randomly make friends outside of their usual circles only shows a degree of hypocrisy.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#804

Post by bawana » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:03 PM UTC

We have shit on this planet so much, we do not deserve children. None of us choose to be born. Yet we have to deal with mistakes and evils of generations past. Even the joy of discovery, of exploring a world anew, of making our own rules has been stolen. We live in the dead shells of our foolish ancestors, dragging their legacy into a future chosen for us by the wealthy 1%

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#805

Post by Apocryphon » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:17 PM UTC

ACow_Adonis wrote: post #525

Apocryphon wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but as someone who has seen many a HN discussion that lacks any sort of empathy or comprehension of social norms or conventions, I cannot help but to advocate for emotional literacy and for the understanding of emotional appeal. Perhaps some of the tech companies and platforms we are seeing face so many problems right now could benefit from emotional literacy. Too much head and not enough heart, one could say.

Also agreed. I don't think anyone would argue that there aren't socially-challenged posters on the internet. On the other hand, it's almost impossible to actually discuss certain socially-mandated topics objectively without someone playing the "emotionally stunted" card against anyone who takes the negative off the socially mandated position. And the poster in this case didn't call anyone names, and is also respondin…

The root post is very emotional and personal to the point of not really germane to this discussion as a whole. But it was sweet and heartfelt, and the proper response is to simply let it be, and respond to other branches in this very long discussion thread. If one disagrees with the thesis, they can simply ignore it and engage with a different subthread that advances it using a non-emotional approach.

Being prudent about which battles to fight and which debates to pick up and what statements merit argument is part of understanding social norms.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#806

Post by krakatau1 » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:19 PM UTC

monodeldiablo wrote: post #630

oblio wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We haven't even seen this scenario play out yet. I'm from the region and I don't think it will turn into some Fallout-type scenario, but I think it will definitely impact the well-being of all citizens in these countries, some 20-30 years from now. It's hard to say yet if/how these countries will recover.

I live in Croatia. Its population has been shrinking since 1991. Almost 30 years of unchecked population decline and it's still not an apocalyptic hellhole. In spite of entrenched corruption and other issues, standards of living and wages have gone up, even as the government does everything it can to destroy nascent industry and chase that tourism nickle. The more old people die, the more domestic opportunity there i…

I’m also from Croatia...we actually had population growth in early nineties and we are losing more people to emigration rather than natural decline. It’s myopic to think that population decline doesn’t harm us. It puts rural areas in vicious cycle of losing population -> smaller economic base -> losing population due to no economic opportunities. Also cohort of women able to give birth declines even faster thus preventing any future recovery.

I live in a small town that is almost 1700 years old. Something is very wrong if we are unable to maintain or grow our population while living in unprecedented luxury and wealth compared to historical norms.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#807

Post by xornox » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:26 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #391

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

And that was a pure personal viewpoint. Consequences of children for society and whole planet were not analysed at all.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#808

Post by chr1 » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:29 PM UTC

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

There is a lot of empty space on earth even before we start terraforming deserts or building floating cities, or colonizing other planets. So the malthusian fearmongering that we are all going to die due to lack of resources is simply false. Having X times more people doesn't lead to us sacrificing anything but to producing 2^X more art and sciense. Even for such a simple example as youtube videos, if population is reduced by half, majority of people who make living by producing videos will lose half of heir income, and will stop producing videos. Developing new cpus will become much harder because research cost would stay the same, and demand would be cut in half. Moreover drastic reduction of population in the parts of world that produce most of our science would put under question even the ability to maintain the technologies we have now.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#809

Post by cortesoft » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:30 PM UTC

anon9001 wrote: post #333

cortesoft wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just not true. Birthrate declines as a society becomes more prosperous and women gain control over their reproductive rights. In fact, the correlation is the opposite of what you said; wealthier people have fewer kids than poor people in almost every country. Your suggestion that people decide not to have kids because they can't afford them is not supported by the data; those who can most afford the kids have…

I wish they'd show all the brackets above 200k in income. I would guess that after maybe 500k in income, it probably trends back up. > Most billionaires have three or more children, the GoCompare analysis found. Among them, 5% had no children, 9% had one child, 23% had two children, 25% had three children, 17% had four children and 21% had five or more. Amazon CEO and founder Jeff Bezos has four children, and Bernard…

Billionaires are such a tiny sample size, though. Not sure how much you can draw from that data.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#810

Post by skrtskrt » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 5:31 PM UTC

brazzy wrote: post #537

Blackstone4 wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been thinking about this and I feel like society characterises some acts as selfless (I.e. having children, marrying your ‘soulmate’)....when really it’s all about people wanting something for themselves....

Characterizing something that involves massive sacrifices and giving up a lot of freedom as "people wanting something for themselves" is pretty ridiculous edgy-teenager thinking.

I mean before you become a wealthy society part of the reason you have children is because they can help support the family. They work the farm, or the family shop, or whatever.

Both of my parents grew up poor, both in America and elsewhere, and they were were working farms or shop jobs long before they were of legal age. It's just part of life.

The idea of just give give give to your children until they become 18 (or beyond) is a luxury/privilege.

They also grew up when "free range" parenting was still a thing. Kids just go out into town and entertain themselves, be home by supper sort of thing. So your time as parent was not spent hovering and taking them to after school programs and planning out their life to prepare them for college admissions.