The global fertility rate is falling • Hacker News Board

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#781

Post by deeg » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:09 PM UTC

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

I'm largely with you. I'm a bit annoyed with the BBC on this article. It seems like just last week overpopulation was a big problem. Now we are "ill-prepared for the global crash" and there will be a "jaw-dropping impact". Oy. No wonder people feel anxious.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#782

Post by __s » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

rimliu wrote: post #721

bondarchuk wrote: post #602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contraception is part of the environment in which natural selection occurs, in that sense it "knows" about it. Concretely, if there is a set of genes that makes it more likely to have children in spite of contraception, that can be selected for.

No. You do not pass e.g. ability to read via genetic code. So you do not pass knowledge about the contraception (or lack of it) either.

If reading is advantageous to select for, you'll find that natural selection will prefer whichever genes facilitate reading ability

There are a lot of subtle hereditary hints. This isn't to say a person can't consciously counteract those hints, but that in the long run those hints will have an impact on behavior which feeds back into selection

It's possible to inherit traits which will hint one to choose not to use contraception

This is the whole nature vs nurture debate. Ultimately it's both

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#783

Post by grugagag » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

daseiner1 wrote: post #254

toomuchtodo wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s wonderful that it’s worked out for you, but I can show you to Facebook support groups of thousands of parents that abhor and regret having children. Children by their very nature are a burden because they can’t care for themselves. Are we arguing with the very data from this article? Clearly children are not that in demand if the fertility rate is experiencing a “jaw dropping global crash”.

children have been a cornerstone of human life from the start, but you think the outliers on facebook are the norm? everything the commenter described are not things one would “demand” before having children, but would only experience after having them. honestly, referring to having children as something that would be “in demand” is disgusting to me

Yes, children "in demand" sounds like they are some kind of marketable product, it does sound a bit misguided. But I don't blame people who don't want to have children, when we are pressured to produce and be as productive as possible, to be the best versions of ourselves, to be always strive to have more and be ever more end always self improve, the place of parenting in one's life has diminished quite a bit. I am glad I did become a parent and in a way I am out of that rat race as my perspective, my goals, my wants, everything has changed and I think for the better.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#784

Post by fallat » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:20 PM UTC

There are two types of people in the (this) world (thread):

* People who defend the non-existent children * People who defend non-existent children can't be defended because they're non-existent

My opinion: do what your brain and heart tell you to do.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#785

Post by durnygbur » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:21 PM UTC

fastball wrote: post #700

durnygbur wrote: post #684

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Europe at least even until the age of 35 most people belong to one of the three latter groups.

Do you have these stats on that? It seems like a lot of unmarried couples live together these days. Anecdotally, I know more unmarried couples that live together than I do unmarried couples that live separately, at least if we're talking about the kind of relationship that is anywhere close to "making babies".

I'd say it's common knowledge in Europe.

https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/8whym9/rising_propo...

https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/bbimot/share_of_you...

https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/ct33wa/neet_rate_in...

https://old.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/8vriuq/share_of_pe...

https://old.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/gplbtg/share_of_yo...

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#786

Post by sudosysgen » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:24 PM UTC

jackcosgrove wrote: post #449

sudosysgen wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A reducing labor population really won't help the working class. First of all, you'll be able to kiss your retirement bye bye. Second of all, you would likely see decline of the economy in real terms. This will cause huge dysfunctions in capitalism, as there will not be an efficient way to invest.

If your retirement was predicated on a forever swelling population lifting your boat, then you actually didn't save enough to retire. Secure retirements shouldn't rely on paygo systems and infinite growth.

Without a population at least being more or less constant, there is essentially no way at all that the average person can retire.

Why? Because if we all start saving enough to retire without relying on growth, then that has a deletrious impact on the economy that makes retirement even more difficult.

This is because no matter how much paper you have, you still need people to grow food, build houses and run services once you retire. If there are more retirees than working people, you're in deep trouble. The average person simply won't be able to retire, ever.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#787

Post by dumbfoundded » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:25 PM UTC

helen___keller wrote: post #722

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

> Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity for them. As a slight digression, mental health is particularly dire because culturally we have not learned how to advance it yet. Mental health is not given the same reverence as physical health. It's common sense more or less that you need to drink water, eat healthy food, get good sleep, get exercise. Some people…

IMO, as someone who has struggled with mental health problems throughout my life, the needs of good mental health are pretty easy to understand but extremely difficult to achieve.

Good mental health comes from feeling loved and needed and having a purpose in life. Love can come from one person or a community but it's absolutely essential. Having a purpose and feeling needed are as important as having the time and energy to feel like you're living up to these obligations.

I feel like the idea of communities has all but been broken down. Similarly with purpose. Simply working to achieve more comfort doesn't seem to be a fulfilling purpose. Most people work just to get by without any sense of what they're doing is important. People are generally made to feel replaceable and powerless.

I have no idea how to solve these problems as I feel like they are fundamental problems of our society. How can you feel necessary when you compare yourself to billions of others instead of 100s? How do you feel connected to other people when you don't even know your neighbors?

I can tell you what I try to do for myself. First, I make sure I'm being healthy. I get enough sleep, exercise regularly, and cook a large portion of my meals. I try to prioritize my relationships with other people over work. Within my work, I left software to start a company that made me feel more connected with the people benefiting from my work. I still struggle with mental health a lot but when I look at where my life was 10 years ago to now, I feel a much deeper sense of fulfillment.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#788

Post by PeterisP » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:26 PM UTC

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #766

PeterisP wrote: post #682

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps, but that's not really relevant since the vast majority of people do not live in well functioning democracies. Your post sounds like an assumption like "the people who live in war are a small minority so their position is an exception compared to humanity in general" when actually it's the opposite, the people who live in the well functioning first world democracies are a small minority so their position is a…

In that case leaders of USSR could use the same line to boast about their country. In the 60s-70s life in USSR was better than in China, India, virtuall all of Africa and Latin America.

Yes, the leaders of USSR could do that and did just that, but I don't understand what this has got to do with any challenges to the original assertion that large quantities of people worldwide would be "very grateful to relocate to Georgia" - they would be. At the moment despite all the immigration restrictions that USA has implemented, the Green Card queue indicates a mass willingness to become residents of USA.

It's not about boasting, it's about whether USA can rely on people wanting to immigrate to ensure that places like Georgia stay sufficiently populated even if population naturally declines - and IMHO they can.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#789

Post by pantaloony » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:28 PM UTC

dorchadas wrote: post #725

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do believe it is an economic problem, in that people are not secure in their job, housing, and life enough to bring new people into it. Think Maslow's wotsit of needs. And I think back on where I grew up, what my parents did; they got married early 20's, and were financially secure enough in blue-collar jobs to afford a house twice the size of the one I managed to finally buy at age 32. With that house and the luxu…

This is the main reason I never want kids. I'm just not sure I'll ever be secure enough while young enough to really care for them. Student loans being the main killer; if I could get rid of them and buy a house, things might be different. But, more than that, I'm also not sure if I'll ever be secure enough to make sure they're secure in the future that seems inevitably coming, with regards to global warming, etc. I…

Having kids took us from “will retire comfortably, probably early, without seriously having to sacrifice for it” to “uh, might retire only a little late, somewhat comfortably, with great effort and luck?” We’re also at much greater risk, financially. On both counts healthcare costs/risks are a big part of why (lost wages and direct costs for childcare are are #1 on the cost side, though). Friggin’ American healthcare system.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#790

Post by scottLobster » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:39 PM UTC

mf_tomb wrote: post #760

scottLobster wrote: post #727

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize there's probably never been a better time to be alive except for maybe 50 years ago, right? (depending on which part of the world you're in) Yes life continues to be harsh, brutal and tragic. It always has been and in some ways always will be. But if your kids are doomed to live in merely the 2nd best civilization humanity has ever produced, I don't think they have much to complain about relatively speaki…

Potential children don't exist. They cannot be harmed by not existing. They can, however, be harmed by being brought into existence. This is true even if life is "worth living" or "generally good" or "mostly pleasurable". Depression and nihilism has nothing to do with it, and my ancestors also don't exist anymore, so why would I care about their opinions?

They exist as potential, the same way the rock at the top of hill has a certain amount of potential energy. You choose whether to push the rock down the hill or not, and declaring that the rock will absolutely be harmed to an unacceptable degree, when it's foggy and you can't see even 10 feet down the hill, is irrational. Especially given that billions of other rocks have been pushed down much steeper hills with extremely rough slopes in the past and still managed.

When we're talking about humans instead of rocks, being harmed is part of life. At the end of the day we're all harmed by something that ends up killing us. That doesn't make life worthless, and attempting to prevent harm at all costs is the definition of maladaptive behavior. If that's your argument then you're basically the ultimate helicopter parent. You're so worried that your child might get harmed you won't even let them be born.

Reward requires risk, and greater rewards require greater risks. That's true for every lifeform down to bacteria and viruses. Granted not all risk leads to reward, but the risk of parenting tends to reward those involved above a certain baseline of effort and capability.

As for your ancestors, you're descended from a line of beings stretching back millions of years that, whatever their flaws, managed to reproduce. If there is a point to life that we know about it's that life exists to propagate in harmony with nature (often brutally enforced by various aspects of nature). The point of society is that we all help each other in that endeavor and make it more meaningful. To fulfill our potential as a species. Even those who choose not to have children help in some way through jobs and taxes. This is part of the reason helping others makes us feel good.

There are many valid reasons to not have kids, but I don't understand how you can trust someone who says "I don't want to succeed at the basic function of life because the 2nd best civilization ever produced just isn't comfortable enough for me", and means it. Someone with that level of weakness is not going to be reliable in bad times, regardless of their intentions. Maybe you don't care if I trust you or not, but if you don't care if anyone trusts you... well then I hope your life is as comfortable as you clearly require, because you'll be getting by on charity if it's not.