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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#741

Post by lotsofpulp »

dorchadas wrote: post #725
Cthulhu_ wrote: post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do believe it is an economic problem, in that people are not secure in their job, housing, and life enough to bring new people into it. Think Maslow's wotsit of needs. And I think back on where I grew up, what my parents did; they got married early 20's, and were financially secure enough in blue-collar jobs to afford a house twice the size of the one I managed to finally buy at age 32. With that house and the luxu…

This is the main reason I never want kids. I'm just not sure I'll ever be secure enough while young enough to really care for them. Student loans being the main killer; if I could get rid of them and buy a house, things might be different. But, more than that, I'm also not sure if I'll ever be secure enough to make sure they're secure in the future that seems inevitably coming, with regards to global warming, etc. I…

I also had/have reservations for the same reason before having children. If I didn’t pair up with another high earner, I would not have tried to have children, as I believe the labor market is too volatile.

I also would have wanted to spare them the effects of climate change/societal turbulence, but partner wanted kids so I said sure, but I wonder if that was the right call sometimes.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#742

Post by ip26 »

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

I'm not yet convinced the uneven distribution of economic opportunity is due to a fundamental shortage of opportunity. It reminds me of the food shortages in African states embroiled in conflict- there is enough food, but it is not distributed. A significant question of our time is how we might bring economic opportunity to distressed regions. The idea of remote work from rural areas is a simple conceptual example; increasing access to markets for isolated farmers is another.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#743

Post by Batman8675309 »

ido wrote: post #601
vladvasiliu wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you should definitely have friends, with or without kids. But from I see around me, I get the impression that having friends is difficult. Even more so when people have to juggle kids and a career. There's a certain isolation that seems to set in. I'm sure a lot of people don't have the kids with the purpose of not being alone in old age. But I also get that there's some kind of "soft expectation", for lack o…

Even more so when people have to juggle kids and a career. I think this is mostly in the first 5-10 years, when the kids grow a bit older it should start getting easier.

That's up to 10 years of hell though

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#744

Post by amanaplanacanal »

bananaface wrote: post #644
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was assuming you knew that your comparison of a builder in Arkansas or a programmer in SF was intended to be a comparison of two people not at the top of the income ladder but reasonably financially secure. Poor people everywhere have more kids than richer people in the same places because various welfare programs make the net cost of each kid less. There's also a massive cost cliff once you get below the threshold…

I posted anecdotes to contextualise the trend. I don't really think there's much point in getting hung up on them because my point is: poor people have more kids, on average, and this trend holds pretty much everywhere. The real question is: what is it about being rich that causes you to have less kids?

I understand that the real reason is Women’s education. The more education a woman has the more life options she has. Uneducated women have lots of kids, educated women tend to have fewer.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#745

Post by skywal_l »

codegrappler wrote: post #641
skywal_l wrote: post #620

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, in most countries, you get external funding from childless people which are paying higher taxes... If people were to pay entirely for the education and health of their offsprings, they would be way less babies in the developed world. And I don't even mention externalities. A human being in a developed country has a big impact on the environment, if people had to pay for it, having a child would out of reach of…

Which is partly true. Those children will also grow up and pay taxes and contribute to companies which in turn fund the retirement accounts of the elderly community.

So an investment. But an investment is also a cost that you might not be able to afford upfront.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#746

Post by lotsofpulp »

Rua4yGUZ4lT1Bbv wrote: post #734
creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

People had more children when there was less economic opportunity.

Birth rates in an era with birth control and women’s ability to have careers is not comparable to birth rates without birth control and when women could not work.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#747

Post by andreilys »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #708
andreilys wrote: post #699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Free will is an illusion. She had a set of evolutionary drives paired with societal pressures that made the choice inevitable.

So given that birthrate is falling, society must be changing to prevent evolution drives? If we have no will I wonder what determines society - it can't be evolution, we're acting contrary to our base nature.

Nurture + Nature.

You don’t exist as an independent being. You are part of a long line of humans. Lots of studies showing how trauma of our ancestors is encoded in our DNA and carried forward.

Social patterns change but the underlying human drives stay constant more or less.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#748

Post by nluux »

nostromo wrote: post #391
gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

This claim falsely assumes childless people will have successfully developed enough intimate and reliable relationships by the time they are on their deathbed.Research shows establishing “fictive kin” at any age is challenging and nearly impossible when the elderly show signs of dementia or Alzheimer's.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#749

Post by amanaplanacanal »

iso1631 wrote: post #669
qayxc wrote: post #640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone clearly hasn't seen what a healthy lifestyle can do for you: https://theculturetrip.com/asia/japan/articles/why-japans-ok... It's common to equate old age with nursing homes and misery in the West. Other cultures show that this needn't be the case at all and is - for the most part; there's still about 30% genetics involved - dependent on how you chose to spend your days. Less Netflix, Facebook, and convenienc…

If an 80 year old no longer contributes to society, and all they have is pieces of paper indicating they used to contribute in the past, they are relying on people who do contribute (by fixing toilets, growing food whatever) to accept those pieces of paper. They will only do so if they feel they are getting enough of those pieces of paper, and if they will believe those pieces of paper will work in the future. The he…

Goods and services do move across borders, though. A single country’s economy doesn’t exist in a sealed bottle. Those pieces of paper can be traded for foreign goods and services.

Now if the whole world was 90% elderly you might have a point.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#750

Post by bananaface »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #744
bananaface wrote: post #644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I posted anecdotes to contextualise the trend. I don't really think there's much point in getting hung up on them because my point is: poor people have more kids, on average, and this trend holds pretty much everywhere. The real question is: what is it about being rich that causes you to have less kids?

I understand that the real reason is Women’s education. The more education a woman has the more life options she has. Uneducated women have lots of kids, educated women tend to have fewer.

I thought the relationship between wealth & offspring was actually stronger for men, but I might be wrong about that.
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