Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

621–630 of 881 posts

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#621

Post by bart_spoon »

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

> A shrinking, aging population would fix this problem. The demand for labor will go up, the supply will go down. Bad for the investor class looking for profits, good for reducing economic inequality. People will be able to profit from labor again.

Except in terms of pure economics, labor won’t necessarily become more valuable, because with less population there will be less consumption and less demand for goods. So even though the dwindling supply of labor will have an upward effect on labor’s value, the dwindling demand for goods will have a counteracting downward effect. And this will only be exacerbated by increased automation.

Economic inequality and lack of economic opportunity is going to be a problem regardless of the population growth rate, and the solution will require something more substantial than simply have less/more children.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#622

Post by [deleted] »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #608
bananaface wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the economic line of thinking is: Why do peasants in Africa have more children than Lawyers in New York? Builders in Arkensas have more kids than tech workers in San Francisco? Poor people in general have more kids than rich people. It doesn't fit the data.

You can't just draw a parallel between a poor agricultural worker and a New York Lawyer, because obviously there are a thousand confounding factors, anything from education to where is the nearestvdoctor, so general stavility of the country.

[deleted]

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#623

Post by seddin »

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

How young were you when you got married and when you started having kids?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#624

Post by neverminder »

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

> A shrinking, aging population would fix this problem. The demand for labor will go up, the supply will go down. Bad for the investor class looking for profits, good for reducing economic inequality. People will be able to profit from labor again.

There is historical evidence of this, like consequences of the Black Death:

"Another notable consequence of the Black Death was the raising of the real wage of England (due to the shortage of labour as a result of the reduction in population), a trait shared across Western Europe, which in general led to a real wage in 1450 that was unmatched in most countries until the 19th or 20th century. The higher wages for workers combined with sinking prices on grain products led to a problematic economic situation for the gentry."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death_in_England

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#625

Post by bananaface »

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #619
bananaface wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the economic line of thinking is: Why do peasants in Africa have more children than Lawyers in New York? Builders in Arkensas have more kids than tech workers in San Francisco? Poor people in general have more kids than rich people. It doesn't fit the data.

>Why do peasants in Africa have more children than Lawyers in New York Because below a certain agricultural productivity level having more kids is actually beneficial for your economic success. Once you get over a certain productivity level it makes sense to have fewer kids and invest in them moving up the economic ladder. >Builders in Arkensas have more kids than tech workers in San Francisco? Because the cost of ev…

Poor people in San Francisco have more kids than rich people in San Francisco. The explanation just doesn't fit the data.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#626

Post by brazzy »

depr wrote: post #590
brazzy wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Characterizing something that involves massive sacrifices and giving up a lot of freedom as "people wanting something for themselves" is pretty ridiculous edgy-teenager thinking.

These children didn't exist before you made them, so who exactly are you massively sacrificing your freedom for?

The children who exist after you made them.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#627

Post by bananaface »

twelve40 wrote: post #618
bananaface wrote: post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't even think it's logically valid. I think if you raise your children well, the chance that they'll be there for you in old age is very high. If you don't have kids, the chance you will have friends that loyal is low. Blood is thicker than water, people should be realistic. How do you measure that statistically? All you have are personal experiences. Saying, "not statistics, isn't valid" is obtuse, it leaves yo…

> if you raise your children well straight up no true Scotsman. Literally, no true Scotsman.

I mean I deliberately said the equivalent of "True Scots usually wear kilts, but some don't," so not really.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#628

Post by LockAndLol »

Why would a decline of sum(humans) even be a problem? We have destroyed large swathes of our habitats, poisoned the air, land and water not only where we live but also where we get our resources, exploit and kill each other because of a skydaddy or for financial gain, and delude ourselves into thinking we're a gift to this earth or even the universe.

How we can even think that putting more consumers on this planet is good for the environment is beyond me. The best way to stop polluting is to consume less. The max minimum of consumption is an absence of consumption.

We don't need more people, we need less of them. And if education and prosperity is making us recognize that, then I demand more education and more prosperity worldwide.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#629

Post by [deleted] »

brazzy wrote: post #537
Blackstone4 wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been thinking about this and I feel like society characterises some acts as selfless (I.e. having children, marrying your ‘soulmate’)....when really it’s all about people wanting something for themselves....

Characterizing something that involves massive sacrifices and giving up a lot of freedom as "people wanting something for themselves" is pretty ridiculous edgy-teenager thinking.

[deleted]

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#630

Post by monodeldiablo »

oblio wrote: post #416
throwaway936482 wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not actually that unusual for a country to have a shrinking population. Italy, Croatia, Lithuania, and a few other central and Eastern European countries currently have declining populations, as does Japan, some due to ageing and a drop in fertility and some due to that plus emigration. Economically and socially they've not entered into the death spiral some people seem to think will happen and are actually doin…

We haven't even seen this scenario play out yet. I'm from the region and I don't think it will turn into some Fallout-type scenario, but I think it will definitely impact the well-being of all citizens in these countries, some 20-30 years from now. It's hard to say yet if/how these countries will recover.

I live in Croatia. Its population has been shrinking since 1991. Almost 30 years of unchecked population decline and it's still not an apocalyptic hellhole.

In spite of entrenched corruption and other issues, standards of living and wages have gone up, even as the government does everything it can to destroy nascent industry and chase that tourism nickle.

The more old people die, the more domestic opportunity there is for the younger generation, and the lower the tax burden on young workers.

Honestly, I'm not sure population decline is something Croatia can afford to "recover from".

Post reply on HN