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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#611

Post by ClumsyPilot »

bananaface wrote: post #447
snowwrestler wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are two scary storylines that get discussed pretty regularly here on HN: a) AI and machine learning will raise productivity so much that they will steal millions of jobs from people. b) Global population will eventually go into decline, which will crash the economy by killing growth. But, these two stories look far less scary when considered together. In fact they seem directly complementary, although the timing…

If AI takes jobs, it doesn't cause wealth to be redistributed, it causes wealth to flow upwards to the person who owns the AI. That might then be redistributed, but it might also not. Whether it is or isn't is largely up to the people who have the most power. In that system, which group has the most power?

But if AI is intelligent, is owning AI slavery?

If an AI is self-improving, why should it have an owner?

If AI improved itself, who owns the copyright?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#612

Post by throwaway0a5e »

Xcelerate wrote: post #579
echelon wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The techno utopian solution of allocating everyone a 20 m^2 apartment, a vr headset, and 1500 calories of soylent per day is going to be a disaster unless you also allocate everyone some future drugs to keep them sedated. I don't know if you live in California, but I think that there's sort of a reality distortion field that comes with living in a big and expensive city. Here in Georgia the rents are cheap and peop…

I grew up in Georgia (metro suburbs and later GT in Atlanta) and moved to the Bay Area two years ago. Georgia offers a very nice quality of life at a great price, but in my opinion the Bay Area has it beat in absolute terms on just about everything except friendliness: food, weather, nature, jobs, art, culture, proximity to other interesting places (further drive but more interesting when you get there), universities…

The bay area probably beats GA if you're in the tech industry.

If I were a plumber, accountant, teacher, or anyone else who isn't on the tech gravy train I wouldn't want to deal with it.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#614

Post by bananaface »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #611
bananaface wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If AI takes jobs, it doesn't cause wealth to be redistributed, it causes wealth to flow upwards to the person who owns the AI. That might then be redistributed, but it might also not. Whether it is or isn't is largely up to the people who have the most power. In that system, which group has the most power?

But if AI is intelligent, is owning AI slavery? If an AI is self-improving, why should it have an owner? If AI improved itself, who owns the copyright?

"Should" doesn't matter. All that matters is how power is actually distributed.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#615

Post by ryder9 »

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

>The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical.

lmfao

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#616

Post by ryder9 »

bananaface wrote: post #596
depr wrote: post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the reason is the shorter version is easier to remember, and people love to attribute genuine wisdom to these kinds of statements. Because the shorter version is easier to remember it is near at hand and got used more.

I don't think people are that dumb tbh.

then you haven't been paying very much attention have you

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#617

Post by scottoreily »

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

What an incredible amount of privilege you got there

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#618

Post by twelve40 »

bananaface wrote: post #480
Apocryphon wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might be logically valid, but it's pretty emotionally tone-deaf to blithely dismiss a long heartfelt personal account by saying "Survivor bias. Caveat emptor." Read the room, as they say.

I don't even think it's logically valid. I think if you raise your children well, the chance that they'll be there for you in old age is very high. If you don't have kids, the chance you will have friends that loyal is low. Blood is thicker than water, people should be realistic. How do you measure that statistically? All you have are personal experiences. Saying, "not statistics, isn't valid" is obtuse, it leaves yo…

> if you raise your children well

straight up no true Scotsman. Literally, no true Scotsman.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#619

Post by throwaway0a5e »

bananaface wrote: post #436
creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

The problem with the economic line of thinking is: Why do peasants in Africa have more children than Lawyers in New York? Builders in Arkensas have more kids than tech workers in San Francisco? Poor people in general have more kids than rich people. It doesn't fit the data.

>Why do peasants in Africa have more children than Lawyers in New York

Because below a certain agricultural productivity level having more kids is actually beneficial for your economic success. Once you get over a certain productivity level it makes sense to have fewer kids and invest in them moving up the economic ladder.

>Builders in Arkensas have more kids than tech workers in San Francisco?

Because the cost of every warm body in a household in SF is completely asinine so people have fewer kids than they would like to.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#620

Post by skywal_l »

sweeneyrod wrote: post #585
edanm wrote: post #569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily, the success rate with children is much higher than startups. (I think? and hope? Don't actually have data on this.)

And you don't need VC funding.

Well, in most countries, you get external funding from childless people which are paying higher taxes... If people were to pay entirely for the education and health of their offsprings, they would be way less babies in the developed world. And I don't even mention externalities. A human being in a developed country has a big impact on the environment, if people had to pay for it, having a child would out of reach of most.
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