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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#581

Post by Thorrez »

irrational wrote: post #495
Thorrez wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe most people in Portland live outside of downtown. Or maybe Portland just has better traffic management. This route around downtown Portland Google estimates will take 22 minutes: https://www.google.com/maps/dir/45.49314,-122.6699199/45.492... This route around downtown and midtown Atlanta Google estimates will take 25 minutes: https://www.google.com/maps/dir/33.7440027,-84.4006901/33.74...

No way. The 285 around Atlanta is 66 miles long. The 5 and 405 around downtown Portland can be driven in under 10 minutes under ideal circumstances. Also, your google map link for Portland is bizarre. I honestly have no idea what that route is supposed to represent. It definitely isn’t any route someone would take who was trying to circle downtown Portland.

Both of those routes are trying to contain the tall buildings inside and the single family homes outside. If you expand the route I drew around Atlanta very much in any direction you start to include single family homes.

285 around Atalanta encloses forests and suburbs, a lot more than just downtown.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#582

Post by whinybastard »

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

This is a great take, but also one that will change rapidly as the US is reaching Europe- and japan levels of aging. After precipitous falls in birth rates, it is becoming increasingly difficult to expect that children will be taking care of elderly parents, especially for a long and protracted "third age". This is a default expectation in the current generations but i think younger people have different expectations for themselves and their children's lives.

This presents an opportunity where technology can make (and is making) a difference. It is also the reason why we want Longevity biotech to make our healthspan equal to our lifespans. We are already seeing the need of this during the COVID shutdowns

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#583

Post by a_imho »

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

There was this post not too long ago by lordleft which I thought was really beautiful and resonated with me.

The decision to have kids is a lot like the decision to continue living. There is no logical basis for it. Or rather, any latticework of logic you erect to justify this choice is based on a foundation that has nothing to do with reason. It is an emotional and spiritual desire to live and love, and give more life and more love to the world.

That's why I when see people engage in complex rational calculations about the utility a child may or may not bring into their life, I feel like they are missing the point. Of course people ought to be thoughtful about the decision to have children. And there are very good reasons to abstain. But in a sense they are not grasping that having children is a profound act of hope.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21790570

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#584

Post by xattt »

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

I have to add on the loneliness piece. I worked/work in long-term and medical/surgical settings. The number of people who have health problems that are exacerbated by their lack of social connection is staggering.

There is also a second nuance where those who follow similar health patterns of the former had immediate family that were “functionally absent” for a large portion of their life (primarily mental health or result of psychosocial trauma).

There is also survivorship bias here too, in that I treat patients because they are sick and I don’t get to see the “lonely” individuals who function well in the community.

My decade of experience as a registered nurse made me fear in spending my twilight years only to be “beloved by my nieces and nephews”.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#585

Post by sweeneyrod »

edanm wrote: post #569
nostromo wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

Luckily, the success rate with children is much higher than startups. (I think? and hope? Don't actually have data on this.)

And you don't need VC funding.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#586

Post by depr »

bananaface wrote: post #533
evgen wrote: post #517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Blood is thicker than water, people should be realistic. Somewhat off-tangent here, but this is a frequent misunderstanding of this particular quote. The actual quote is: “the blood of the covenant is thicker than the water of the womb” and it means the exact opposite of what we now use it for. The intended meaning is that relationships entered into as adults are much stronger and deeper than those we are forced in…

I think the reason the meaning shifted is that the original meaning is not particularly accurate. Although that said, I'm looking into it and it doesn't seem settled that that is the etymylogical root. That root also specifically refers to blood shed in battle . My guess is it was war propaganda.

I think the reason is the shorter version is easier to remember, and people love to attribute genuine wisdom to these kinds of statements. Because the shorter version is easier to remember it is near at hand and got used more.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#587

Post by swiley »

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

I live in a small studio apartment in a city, don’t do drugs, and don’t have a VR headset. I’m very happy even when working from home, the two things that bother me the most are fear of losing my job and fear of losing my girlfriend.

Maybe some people aren’t happy without having a yard? There are plenty of plants around here though and there’s an entire block that’s left as just trees and grass for people to walk around in. Maybe without that I’d feel the same way.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#588

Post by david_draco »

iso1631 wrote: post #573

Can we take a minute to appreciate that graph The X axis run at a nice pace, about 7 pixels a year, upto 2017 It then compresses the next 83 years in the space of about 10 years.

Exactly, the plot is misleading. It suggests a dramatic "jaw-dropping" change, while in reality the curve is slowly crawling towards and below 2.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#589

Post by depr »

leokennis wrote: post #464
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure having children so you won't be lonely in old age is a good thing.

Not if it's just for that reason. But, historically, for humans besides passing on genes, having children has been a very economic decision: - Increases the labor potential of the family "for free" - Now you have someone to take care of you when you're old

So besides not being alone in old age you also get economic benefits. That does sound interesting.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#590

Post by depr »

brazzy wrote: post #537
Blackstone4 wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been thinking about this and I feel like society characterises some acts as selfless (I.e. having children, marrying your ‘soulmate’)....when really it’s all about people wanting something for themselves....

Characterizing something that involves massive sacrifices and giving up a lot of freedom as "people wanting something for themselves" is pretty ridiculous edgy-teenager thinking.

These children didn't exist before you made them, so who exactly are you massively sacrificing your freedom for?
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