The global fertility rate is falling • Hacker News Board

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#371

Post by JackFr » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 6:24 AM UTC

inopinatus wrote: post #361

JackFr wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider how attitudes towards contraception have changed over time. There was a time, not that long ago, where the separation of procreation from the procreative act was considered harmful to both society and the individual. There is a cultural elite, who’s effect has been so profound, they have led you to believe that such a cultural norm as we enjoy today was inevitable and have convinced the world that taking a p…

Contraception is not dysfunction. There is no cultural elite brainwashing me into believe otherwise. I can arrive at this position all on my lonesome, simply by rejecting the appalling prejudices of the Catholic church (and many other religions), misogynists in general, and bigoted authoritarians (but I repeat myself); both on the basis of the crushing harm they have inflicted over the centuries, and the colossal was…

How’s the water?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#372

Post by iso947 » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 6:26 AM UTC

silisili wrote: post #75

epx wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The boomers will have to accept a haircut. This is a matter of time.

The boomers will be dead long before the system shocks itself. Probably the tail end of Gen Xers or Millenials that will get royally screwed, if I had to guess.

Of course, screwed by boomers, then screwed by the those born today.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#373

Post by gxon » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 6:26 AM UTC

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

To add to that, even if we can technically support a lot more people with the sustainable resources we have, which I personally doubt, getting close to our max capacity means we will have zero wiggle room when things go wrong. With climate change accelerating and guaranteed to cause drastic changes to our environment, a lot of things will go wrong at the same time.

The analogy I like is your income/spending ratio. Yes, you can technically spend 100% of your income, or even >100% with debt. But if you choose to live like that, then when you get laid off, or get sick/disabled, or divorced, or forced to start caring for a relative, or have your house burn down, then all of a sudden what's already a major emergency is exacerbated by financial issues.

Decreasing our population now is like increasing our savings rate. We know difficult times are coming. Fewer people will only help us navigate the transition more humanely and equitably. Not only is this true from a macro/global scale, but also a micro/family scale where it's obvious that having more kids than you can afford or have time to raise is its own kind of cruelty.

Anyway, if you're choosing to have kids, one is enough. The real winners adopt.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#374

Post by philshem » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 6:28 AM UTC

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

Thank you for sharing. I'd like to add my experience that being a parent has made me a better child.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#375

Post by creato » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 6:28 AM UTC

fiblye wrote: post #363

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

> The demand for labor will go up, the supply will go down. Bad for the investor class looking for profits, good for reducing economic inequality. People will be able to profit from labor again. I'm not so sure about that. Loads of wealth is consolidated at the top, both in terms of economic class and age. People who got their jobs and attained management positions after barely graduating high school are demanding ba…

You are thinking very short term and in a very narrow range of conditions around our current economic situation.

We have never seen economic conditions remotely close to what we would see if the population were actually shrinking.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#376

Post by globular-toast » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 6:28 AM UTC

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

A lot of those people alone in care homes have children. They just don't care. You can never know what the future holds so make reasonable plans but above all just enjoy your life and make yourself useful while you can. You have a therapist so you're not really selling the whole child lifestyle to me.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#377

Post by zelphirkalt » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 6:28 AM UTC

Thank goodness! I hope this is true. Please let it be true, that the population will decrease in the example countries and elsewhere.

Seems to be about the only thing, that can protect us from further overpopulating the planet with more humans. Even better, if it is caused by more education and more similar or equal opportunity for women. We should start celebrating women, who choose not to get children or at least not more than 1 child as climate saviors too.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#378

Post by arp242 » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 6:31 AM UTC

jstewartmobile wrote: post #301

arp242 wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am actually "going over there" as I'm currently living in Indonesia, which has more Muslims than any other country. The problem with your previous comment is that you seem to think that everyone in these countries is the same; the very definition of bigotry is judging people by their attributes (such as country of origin) rather than on individual merit. The people I meet and hang out with is a biased selection for…

My point is that many Americans, self included, never heard of FGM until immigrants brought it into to our country. > you seem to think that everyone in these countries is the same Your words, not mine. Everyone is an individual. I think many of these individuals should fix their own countries before fleeing to mine. They are not the meek and downtrodden. Every one at the university has blown through at least $125K o…

FGM is not merely an "immigrant issue" in the US:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/02/fgm-happened...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-religion-fgm/us-woman...

Never mind that the United States specifically also has a tradition of male genital mutilation, so ... you know.

Why should I have the personal responsibility to "fix" my county? Just because I happened to be born there? Seems like a weird take; I don't think location of birth imparts any sort of personal responsibility towards the location.

I was able to leave my own country because I didn't like it, why shouldn't other people have this opportunity? Just because someone else does something bad in their country? Meh. Most people I know aren't "fleeing"; they just want to live somewhere else for a while. Most come back as their family etc. is here and they're usually better off with the experience.

Rich people all over the world spend money on rich person's things. That's a very small minority though, and most people are just regular middle-class people (or worse) with middle-class income and jobs.

My Indonesian girlfriend will have a significantly harder time moving to Europe than I have moving to Indonesia for no other reason than her location of birth, even though she has a university degree and arguably a better job than I do.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#379

Post by blueblisters » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 6:31 AM UTC

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

> A shrinking, aging population would fix this problem. The demand for labor will go up, the supply will go down.

An ageing population likely consumes less. The demand for goods will go down and the demand for labor will likely remain constant for a shrinking workforce. Asset prices will crash if future demand does not keep up with current valuations. This is not just bad for the investor class, this is bad for anyone who relies on the modern banking and financial systems.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#380

Post by ralfd » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 6:31 AM UTC

> Prof Murray adds: "It will create enormous social change. It makes me worried because I have an eight-year-old daughter and I wonder what the world will be like."

Case in point: This implies the professor has only one child.