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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#301

Post by jstewartmobile »

arp242 wrote: post #276
jstewartmobile wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we all have just as many stones to throw, why are they coming over here? Why aren't we going over there?

I am actually "going over there" as I'm currently living in Indonesia, which has more Muslims than any other country. The problem with your previous comment is that you seem to think that everyone in these countries is the same; the very definition of bigotry is judging people by their attributes (such as country of origin) rather than on individual merit. The people I meet and hang out with is a biased selection for…

My point is that many Americans, self included, never heard of FGM until immigrants brought it into to our country.

> you seem to think that everyone in these countries is the same

Your words, not mine. Everyone is an individual. I think many of these individuals should fix their own countries before fleeing to mine. They are not the meek and downtrodden. Every one at the university has blown through at least $125K on immigration attorneys for the student visa alone.

> smart, well-educated, and generally "good" people

There is more to being good than calculus and not murdering people. Given the immense purchasing power they would have in their own countries, why aren't they raising up their own instead of fleeing? So many brahmins blowing through half a mil on a 3rd-rate US compsci degree, while people back home don't even have clean water.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#302

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

user555555555 wrote: post #290
javajosh wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's important to note that in Germany, at least, day care is provided by the state at no cost, starting from the age of 3mo or so. You also get 300 euros a month per child. German society has made a concerted effort to encourage that people have children in Germany. It's an idea worth copying, IMHO.

That does sound easier, is there a higher birth rate in that area?

It has, but mostly from immigrants or poor families. Middle class families are still barely having one child or none at all.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#303

Post by mdorazio »

corysama wrote: post #90

This article is quite exasperated, but doesn't say much. I'm far from an expert in this area, but here's what I've read elsewhere: We're quickly moving from the population explosion problem to the population implosion problem. No one planned it or made it happen. But, it looks like we're not actually going to overflow the planet with people standing shoulder to shoulder. Instead, the problem we're facing moving forwa…

Counterpoint: major world problems like climate change are a direct result of having too many people, and more specifically having too many people living unsustainable lifestyles. Worse, a large percentage of the world's population is now moving out of sustainable living into unsustainable living as a result of globalization (as people gain more wealth, they tend to want things like more meat and driving a car).

The net result is that a decreasing population is a good thing for the planet, but a bad thing for economics.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#305

Post by qubex »

tingletech wrote: post #267
snowwrestler wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are two scary storylines that get discussed pretty regularly here on HN: a) AI and machine learning will raise productivity so much that they will steal millions of jobs from people. b) Global population will eventually go into decline, which will crash the economy by killing growth. But, these two stories look far less scary when considered together. In fact they seem directly complementary, although the timing…

now if we could just get the robots to pay social security

You jest, but the economic effects of all of this are severe. A total regression in the real-estate market (because stagnant demographics means the existing housing stock will roughly suffice or even exceed demand) will have severe effects.

Basically the end to growing demand, and thus essentially an end to growth-orientated capitalism.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#306

Post by [deleted] »

pcbro141 wrote: post #286
jstewartmobile wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we all have just as many stones to throw, why are they coming over here? Why aren't we going over there?

Most immigrants from developing countries migrate for economic reasons, not to escape genital mutiliation, acid attacks or honor killings which aren't very common in most developing countries. The developing world and immigrants aren't as scary as you seem to imagine them to be.

[deleted]

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#307

Post by csharpminor »

tingletech wrote: post #267
snowwrestler wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are two scary storylines that get discussed pretty regularly here on HN: a) AI and machine learning will raise productivity so much that they will steal millions of jobs from people. b) Global population will eventually go into decline, which will crash the economy by killing growth. But, these two stories look far less scary when considered together. In fact they seem directly complementary, although the timing…

now if we could just get the robots to pay social security

It’s almost as if we should redistribute profits from the robots universally to provide some level of basic income.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#308

Post by nmfisher »

arrosenberg wrote: post #224
nmfisher wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's definitely something to this, and I'd agree that career driven culture is very toxic. But I'd also hesitate to call it "top-down" influence. That would drastically downplay the autonomy we have in first-world countries. Nobody is forced to prioritize their career over everything else. In most countries, I'd say it's the complete opposite - tax incentives and benefits are usually structured to encourag…

> It's too easy for everyone to blame "the man" or "society" for a mindset that is entirely self-inflicted - with the exception of the US system tying healthcare to employment. That is definitely a top-down influence. The truth is that most "toxic culture" issues are systemic, so dumping blame on individuals for following systemic incentives doesn't make any sense. Nobody is forced to prioritize their career, but a l…

> The truth is that most "toxic culture" issues are systemic, so dumping blame on individuals for following systemic incentives doesn't make any sense.

Aside from tying healthcare to employment in the USA, what systemic issues are there?

> Nobody is forced to prioritize their career, but a lot of people don't exactly have a choice to pursue leisure either. Lot's of people working paycheck to paycheck with no savings. How can you start a family in this country under those conditions?

Yet birthrates decrease with income - lower income households have higher birthrates [0]. This suggests that a lower fertility rate is indeed a choice, rather than economic necessity.

[0] - US statistics, but this is broadly the same across the world https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-fam...

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#309

Post by YinLuck- »

cayblood wrote: post #247

This doesn't seem that "jaw dropping." Hans Rosling was saying this for at least a decade prior to this, that global population would peak around 10B and decline thereafter. That said, I think that viable longevity therapy will significantly alter this trend.

What have you seen or read so far this century to make you think "longevity therapy" is anything but techno drivel? If anything, the global explosion of obesity and the metabolic conditions associated with it (diabetes, high blood pressure, etc) will counteract any miracle longevity therapy even if it comes along.
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