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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#281

Post by philipkglass »

logicchains wrote: post #215
snowwrestler wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government and private retirement strategies both rely on cash transfers from younger workers. In a government system, the younger workers pay taxes which are transferred to retirees. In a private retirement system, younger workers are the purchasing counterparties as retirees sell off their investments. Retirement financing in general relies on future economic growth for future cashflow. That said, you don't necessa…

>Government and private retirement strategies both rely on cash transfers from younger workers. In a government system, the younger workers pay taxes which are transferred to retirees. In a private retirement system, younger workers are the purchasing counterparties as retirees sell off their investments. The core unit of the economy is not cash, it's value. Saving roughly corresponds to avoiding consumption and pres…

You can't store medical workers in a silo for later. That's the big problem. Older people don't need to eat more but they do need more attention from nurses and doctors.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#282

Post by snowwrestler »

jjoonathan wrote: post #109
tclancy wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…

Old calculus: "I need to have lots of children so they support me in my old age. No matter the cost." New calculus: "Between retirement accounts and welfare, society will support me in my old age. Children are really, really expensive." It's economics, plain and simple. Of course there's a "top" and the "top" does dictate the structure. If you doubt that, ask: what percent of your income do you pay in taxes, and what…

If declining birth rate is a matter of what people can afford, we should look for some sort of correlation between wealth and birth rate.

To the best of my knowledge, the correlation is somewhat negative--that is, rich people have lower average birth rates than poor people.

How can it be economics "plain and simple" if even people who can easily afford to raise large families choose not to? Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan could afford more kids than the Duggars. But they have two.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#283

Post by Guy2020 »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #85
Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

We should take a page from Jonathan Swift and consider eating them.

Capitalists want to increase their wealth. They have a well defined role in society. Our government is supposed to be a counterbalance to them...but the two have become intertwined, hence the problem.

In my view, the will of the people is not being reflected in the government due to corruption.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#284

Post by usaar333 »

jariel wrote: post #83
Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

Though there's some truthiness here, it's a very cynical take. Most people aren't thinking about the ROI of their kids, that ironically is a pretty modern twist. Birth Control is way, overwhelmingly the #1 issue, so far ahead of anything else. Condoms and 'the pill' are a very new phenom. Imagine before them, when every sexual act had a pretty high change of pregnancy. And then it's easy to understand how sex marriag…

Birth control is not the overwhelming #1 issue other than at the tail end. TFR plummeted continually from from 1800 to 1920 (from 7 to 3) in the US (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033027/fertility-rate-u...).

The primary issues were first increased probability of survival to adulthood (shift focus to raising fewer kids better) and then higher opportunity cost (especially for women who gained opportunities).

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#285

Post by seanmcdirmid »

bing_dai wrote: post #183
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Society can only support you in old age if there are enough younger people around. Unfortunately, even though kids are needed for society to function and keep going, not much of the cost of raising kids is socialized, at least in the states. Day care for one kid where I live is $1700/month and rising, you have to be rich to afford it.

"Society can only support you in old age if there are enough younger people around." I do not agree with that. In my opinion, technology advancements (say, driverless cars) will make reduce the amount of young people needed to support for older people.

In that case, if these technologies become so successful to eliminate the need for young people, they will basically become our successor species and all this is moot anyways.

Obviously that won’t happen overnight, but it could definitely happen gradually.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#286

Post by pcbro141 »

jstewartmobile wrote: post #217
arp242 wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These problems are not wide-spread in most underdeveloped countries, even Muslim-majority ones. I don't want to "whataboutism" here, but to offer a comparison: the US clearly has a problem with police violence, but we don't judge the entire country's population by it.

If we all have just as many stones to throw, why are they coming over here? Why aren't we going over there?

Most immigrants from developing countries migrate for economic reasons, not to escape genital mutiliation, acid attacks or honor killings which aren't very common in most developing countries. The developing world and immigrants aren't as scary as you seem to imagine them to be.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#287

Post by Ekaros »

cko wrote: post #260
lotsofpulp wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have yet to see any technology that will change a bedpan in the next 30 years. Much less provide the most important component to an older person’s mental (and hence in some ways physical) health - which is the company of other humans, family and friends, and typically grand children and other decendants.

I have been thinking of some powered exoskeleton that provides mobility as one solution. What is more concerning is loneliness, but maybe VR NPCs or something.

I don't think loneliness will be massive issue. Considering the population of young adults and adults already suffering from it. Nothing will be different for us. And the communications are likely to improve so this is one thing that technology can solve.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#288

Post by stubish »

Zarath wrote: post #192
koolba wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are excuses that people make up to soothe their egos. The real reason people do not have children is selfishness. They think that the financial and time cost will deprive them of other material joys. It’s as sad as it is misguided.

You're getting downvoted but I think there is some truth to this statement.

It's two statements. 1) childlessness is a selfish choice. 2) this is sad and misguided. That second statement, without evidence or argument, is arrogant and patronizing. Non-inclusive even.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#289

Post by towaway423423 »

Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

Children have become assets of the socio-economic-intellectual monopolies that run countries today; they are barely entities that have any real familial roles or indeed any parochial roles at all.

To paraphrase that kid from Boyhood: who needs robots when you can program humans ?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#290

Post by user555555555 »

javajosh wrote: post #278
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Society can only support you in old age if there are enough younger people around. Unfortunately, even though kids are needed for society to function and keep going, not much of the cost of raising kids is socialized, at least in the states. Day care for one kid where I live is $1700/month and rising, you have to be rich to afford it.

It's important to note that in Germany, at least, day care is provided by the state at no cost, starting from the age of 3mo or so. You also get 300 euros a month per child. German society has made a concerted effort to encourage that people have children in Germany. It's an idea worth copying, IMHO.

That does sound easier, is there a higher birth rate in that area?
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