The global fertility rate is falling • Hacker News Board

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#241

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:42 AM UTC

Guy2020 wrote: post #218

mr_woozy wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There should be a godwins law for people who attempt to use this method of ending a discussion. "go read this book which explains my point because I can't explain it well enough to others." is not a convincing argument in the least.

What good are books if we can't direct people at them? That book makes my case. The fact that Bernays was a major advisor for the media complex of America makes the book an even more significant piece of evidence for my position.

[deleted]

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#242

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:43 AM UTC

jjoonathan wrote: post #109

tclancy wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…

Old calculus: "I need to have lots of children so they support me in my old age. No matter the cost." New calculus: "Between retirement accounts and welfare, society will support me in my old age. Children are really, really expensive." It's economics, plain and simple. Of course there's a "top" and the "top" does dictate the structure. If you doubt that, ask: what percent of your income do you pay in taxes, and what…

[deleted]

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#243

Post by aaronbrethorst » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:44 AM UTC

inopinatus wrote: post #231

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should take a page from Jonathan Swift and consider eating them.

Counterpoint; quand les pauvres n'auront plus rien à manger, ils mangeront les riches .

Indeed.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#244

Post by skewart » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:45 AM UTC

koolba wrote: post #81

grugagag wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also education and contraception that have a role. I’d also add the high cost of living too as well as rising inequality.

Those are excuses that people make up to soothe their egos. The real reason people do not have children is selfishness. They think that the financial and time cost will deprive them of other material joys. It’s as sad as it is misguided.

That’s a bizarre and mean-spirited line of thinking. There’s nothing inherently selfish about not having kids. Every life decision involves trade-offs between time, money, effort, and various kinds of joys and sorrows. People have lots of different circumstances that lead them to evaluate these trade-offs differently. Children are a huge, irreversible decision. It’s natural for people to be cautious. Besides, one could easily argue that having kids is selfish - you’re deliberately consuming more resources and tax dollars so you can create clones of yourself and expand your family line. That’s not a nice or realistic way to look at having children though.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#245

Post by inopinatus » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:45 AM UTC

mr_woozy wrote: post #209

Guy2020 wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying there are no mechanisms that allow wealthy people to influence human behavior on a large scale? Please read "Propaganda" by Edward Bernays.

There should be a godwins law for people who attempt to use this method of ending a discussion. "go read this book which explains my point because I can't explain it well enough to others." is not a convincing argument in the least.

You should see their blog. It quotes Nietszche and the Bene Gesserit on the way to thousands of words restating Wittgenstein's axioms.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#246

Post by gumby » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:46 AM UTC

This is pretty great. I expect automation will address a lot of the labor shortage issues.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#247

Post by cayblood » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:46 AM UTC

This doesn't seem that "jaw dropping." Hans Rosling was saying this for at least a decade prior to this, that global population would peak around 10B and decline thereafter. That said, I think that viable longevity therapy will significantly alter this trend.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#248

Post by cortesoft » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:46 AM UTC

anon9001 wrote: post #118

all_blue_chucks wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pushed from the top? What on earth? Guy, there's no conspiracy required to explain urbanization. It is a simple matter of better agriculture tech. We just don't need much labor on farms anymore.

It's absolutely pushed from the top. Nobody outside of extreme religious communities sees increasing the population as a noble goal. At least in the US, children are effectively a tax on the working class. How many people do you know that had to keep working to put their kids through college? Why do workplaces have tax-incentivized college savings accounts? Why does it cost employees to add children to employer-spons…

This is just not true.

Birthrate declines as a society becomes more prosperous and women gain control over their reproductive rights.

In fact, the correlation is the opposite of what you said; wealthier people have fewer kids than poor people in almost every country. Your suggestion that people decide not to have kids because they can't afford them is not supported by the data; those who can most afford the kids have the fewest.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-fam...

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#249

Post by lotsofpulp » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:47 AM UTC

jjoonathan wrote: post #109

tclancy wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…

Old calculus: "I need to have lots of children so they support me in my old age. No matter the cost." New calculus: "Between retirement accounts and welfare, society will support me in my old age. Children are really, really expensive." It's economics, plain and simple. Of course there's a "top" and the "top" does dictate the structure. If you doubt that, ask: what percent of your income do you pay in taxes, and what…

> New calculus: "Between retirement accounts and welfare, society will support me in my old age. Children are really, really expensive."

My calculus is not at all that society will support me. In fact, it’s the opposite. I anticipate no support from society, but I also don’t want to burden my family or society so I hope to be able to go out on my own terms once I am no longer self sufficient.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#250

Post by bsder » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 4:48 AM UTC

Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

> Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways.

Especially if you are female. Children turn your very nice life into a completely different one and take up an enormous amount of resource.

I would even go a step further that in certain cultures simply getting married turns your life from a very nice thing into something destined for drudgery. Japan is a primary example as the woman is expected to take care of both sets of parents in their old age.

Do you love some man enough to take that on? Or are you better off having sex occasionally and skipping the marriage thing?

> I don't think these changes are natural, given how little control people have over their lives. This stuff is being pushed from the top.

No need. People aren't stupid and can see the consequences of their actions.

Lack of elder care support is probably becoming more crucial than lack of child care support. Children start with their needs at infinity and get more independent on a strict time schedule--elderly get more dependent on an indefinite schedule and their needs go to infinity right before they pass.