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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

171–180 of 881 posts

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#171

another chicken little article. worthless speculation about the future. who knows what will happen if the population declines. one thing is for certain though. it will be a positive for the environment. at some point the ponzi scheme, infinite growth society must have it’s day of reckoning

> it will be a positive for the environment

It certainly would improve our chances and reduce the rate at which conditions diverge from the baseline we've experienced for the last ~10,000 years, but it's important to recognize that we would not see meaningful total population reduction until at least 2100 even if the birth rate continued to drop dramatically and disasters claimed several billion lives[0]. There is too much inertia.

[0] https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1410465111

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#172
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…

Old calculus: "I need to have lots of children so they support me in my old age. No matter the cost." New calculus: "Between retirement accounts and welfare, society will support me in my old age. Children are really, really expensive." It's economics, plain and simple. Of course there's a "top" and the "top" does dictate the structure. If you doubt that, ask: what percent of your income do you pay in taxes, and what…

Society can only support you in old age if there are enough younger people around. Unfortunately, even though kids are needed for society to function and keep going, not much of the cost of raising kids is socialized, at least in the states. Day care for one kid where I live is $1700/month and rising, you have to be rich to afford it.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#173
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also education and contraception that have a role. I’d also add the high cost of living too as well as rising inequality.

Those are excuses that people make up to soothe their egos. The real reason people do not have children is selfishness. They think that the financial and time cost will deprive them of other material joys. It’s as sad as it is misguided.

Nonsense.

Anecdotally: I've had multiple discussions with employed, unburdened men and women (particularly women) in their mid 20s who have decided not to have children for one reason: Climate change.

The planet is collapsing. Our children are likely to die of hunger, disease, or warfare as things become more destabilized over the next 50 years.

We don't believe their lives will be better than ours, and we don't want to further deplete humanity's scant resources.

From this perspective, having children is selfish.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's almost like we've all been convinced to join some weird, global suicide cult. Except instead of killing ourselves we're throwing our genetic information away. Almost everyone I know who is really well-off/rich is having several kids. Heck, Elon Musk, who is basically spending his life trying to solve these environmental problems as his multiple businesses, has six! Why are their social norms and thoughts on this…

It's not rocket science, it's because they don't have to raise the kids - I'd be surprised if elon saw his kids for more than a third as much as the middle class sees theirs. Hell he wasn't even at the birth of his latest.

Right, but the difference is that we don't admit that we're not willing to or can't take on the burden of raising children.

Instead it's "oh, I'm doing what's right for the environment."

One of these two behaviors is intellectually dishonest. Which one do you think it is?

Aside: Most of the parents that I know are extremely involved in their kids lives, even if they pay for help.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#175
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It may be unpopular, but I agree 100%. I don't want people to suffer unnecessarily. But the more people we add to the planet, the more we exacerbate problems with food, water, Co2 emissions, etc. In the end, something will curtail human population growth. I really hope it's voluntary and painless.

Most of the United States is unpopulated. We can easily double our population and be fine.

That's not the bottleneck. At present consumption levels, doubling the population of the United States would be disastrous.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pushed from the top? What on earth? Guy, there's no conspiracy required to explain urbanization. It is a simple matter of better agriculture tech. We just don't need much labor on farms anymore.

It's absolutely pushed from the top. Nobody outside of extreme religious communities sees increasing the population as a noble goal. At least in the US, children are effectively a tax on the working class. How many people do you know that had to keep working to put their kids through college? Why do workplaces have tax-incentivized college savings accounts? Why does it cost employees to add children to employer-spons…

Children inherently cost money. Someone has to pay it. You're trying to pretend like the system is designed to screw parents by burdening them with this cost source that is a child when simply put, children cost money.

> How many people do you know that had to keep working to put their kids through college?

College costs money. The incentives with government backed student debt has inflated that cost dramatically. This wasn't some scheme to tax parents. It was a moral hazard of a bad policy intended to make college accessible but in turn caused massive tuition inflation.

> Why does it cost employees to add children to employer-sponsored health insurance?

Again, because insuring more people costs more money. Whether you're adding a child or a spouse, more insurance coverage ought to equate to higher premiums. That the economics of how insurance works. Again if there are higher costs, someone has to pay them.

> The system is very much set up to disincentive having kids.

The system does disincentive having kids but that doesn't at all imply the system was intentionally designed to do so. (A) kids cost money and that is by definition a disincentive and (B) some policies like college loans were not setup to cause this disincentive. They instead just had adverse effects due to the moral hazard of incentivizing colleges to raise tuition since the government will back the loan and the student doesn't understand how to make an informed decision on cost tradeoffs at their age. But this isn't the system being designed to prevent people from having children.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#177
post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

It isn't just the choices. Young people are having less sex. Japan has noticed this. Declining sales of contraceptives but declines in both STDs and pregnancies, especially amongst the young. Incidents of the "oops we are pregnant" scenario have declined all over the western world. Western culture has for decades complained that young people have too liberal a view of sex. Remember those abstinence pushes in the 80s…

I'm pretty skeptical that abstinence pushes and purity rings worked. I'm pretty sure that the slack was picked up by widely available pornography.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#178
post #111

This article is quite exasperated, but doesn't say much. I'm far from an expert in this area, but here's what I've read elsewhere: We're quickly moving from the population explosion problem to the population implosion problem. No one planned it or made it happen. But, it looks like we're not actually going to overflow the planet with people standing shoulder to shoulder. Instead, the problem we're facing moving forwa…

this is fantastic news. Yes, we don’t know how to properly adapt yet, but this planet resources are limited and we aren’t good at sharing them. What worries me is that long term this can be reversed just like current trend is reversing away from population growth. Current trend seems to be driven by job prospects, education and costs of raising kids. But what if in a future we all had basic income? No need to worry a…

Why would it? Do you imagine people enjoy raising four kids or more? Children used to be old-age insurance. You needed so many to be certain some of them would survive, thrive, and take care of you in old age. If your needs are met, either through a good pension or UBI, you can have as many kids as you prefer. And by all indications, for most people that's actually around the natural replacement level, or fewer.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#179
This absolutely must be reasoned about together with climate change projections. I don't see there's any chance in hell we can stop at a 2 degree world. That means though that large parts of the world will likely become inhospitable to human life as we know it. So, I'd expect either huge population transfers, wars, or both. The population decline will likely not be uniform then, as people will flock to the still hospitable parts of the planet. Provided 'native' populations don't go full lock-the-borders mode.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#180
post #50

I feel like bemoaning sub-replacement rate fertility doesn't take into account the exponential growth of automation in post-industrialized economies and how little labor actually needs to be done to maintain the same productivity, let alone how less labor increases productivity in an organization (no numbers there - just an observation from my own work). Extrapolated to society I'm not really afraid of an aging popul…

I worry because society has not given us the benefits of increased productivity. We've already massively increased productivity with computerization, but during that same period instead of more leisure time, society has actually demanded MORE working hours (by putting more women to work)

The question is, are those people actually doing useful work which contributes to an increase of happiness or living standards for people?

I'd argue that many don't, and that many work on stuff that doesn't really matter. This includes many programmers, by the way. I've certainly done more than a fair share of meaningless "bullshit" programming work.

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