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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

121–130 of 881 posts

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#121
Well that is a particularly click baitey article.

My index is failing me here but I recall a paper that had looked into falling birth rates as standards of living increased and found that birth rate correlated strongly with the "cost" of children. The supposition (it really wasn't a theory or even a solid hypothesis) was that as parents became more educated and society's measure of success became more material, the parental effort to provide the "best" for their kids went up.

It worked kind of like this, you have kids, you want them to have as good or better life than you have. If you've defined "better" here as wealth and social status, then you want them to have more opportunities.

Getting them those opportunities (which you may have missed out on) costs money (wealth). Examples, good schools, good nutrition, good after school programs, Etc.

Also, the developing society is putting more social status points on "successful" people (at least outwardly so by their display of wealth) which incentivizes couples to both continue their careers and "success trajectories." That path costs still more because now you have to add day care and possibly a nanny or two to the mix.

Here in the U.S. there is actually an interesting empirical example that supports this, its called foster care fraud. When the state offers to pay money to someone as a foster parent, a small number of people will exploit this by becoming foster parents for many many children to accrue the state benefit for "caring" for them. As an example, it suggests to me that if the state provided support to people with larger families that offset their costs significantly, the result would be larger families.

I would not argue that this "proves" the supposition that child care costs drive down the size of families, but to me it argues that it is likely a large factor in the decision.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#122
post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

If your assumption that people are having less children because of a shift of the sense of responsibility in the modern era--then the counter-narrative could then be built that the birthrate could potentially rebound in a future where automation has replaced workers and people's sense of purpose is no longer a product of career motivations.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#123

This article is quite exasperated, but doesn't say much. I'm far from an expert in this area, but here's what I've read elsewhere: We're quickly moving from the population explosion problem to the population implosion problem. No one planned it or made it happen. But, it looks like we're not actually going to overflow the planet with people standing shoulder to shoulder. Instead, the problem we're facing moving forwa…

This is very interesting, and unexpected at the surface level. Especially with all the doom and gloom we've always been fed about the world population getting out of control, consuming all the resources, polluting the planet into oblivion, etc.

I was expecting to read about medical/health reasons why men and women are literally becoming less fertile, but it's not that. It sounds like it's a side effect of countries/societies advancing technologically and socially. It makes sense, but I just never visualized it like that in my head. Wow, what a great problem to have!

But as you say, it is a problem, just in other ways we might not have considered before. It will be interesting to see how we figure out how to restructure society as the demographics shift. But this seems like it could be a very good thing for the environment, climate change, resource management, etc. Overall, seems like positive new to me!

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#124
post #10

There's a short-term problem of society becoming "top-heavy", where there might not be enough young to pay for the continued care of the old. But in the long run this seems like a win. I wonder what impact it might have on climate projections.

I'd like to see an accounting of the real resources (not money) that elderly require vs children and young to middle aged adults. I'm suspicious because it sounds much like the undue burden tripe you hear about disabled people.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#125
post #50

I feel like bemoaning sub-replacement rate fertility doesn't take into account the exponential growth of automation in post-industrialized economies and how little labor actually needs to be done to maintain the same productivity, let alone how less labor increases productivity in an organization (no numbers there - just an observation from my own work). Extrapolated to society I'm not really afraid of an aging popul…

I worry because society has not given us the benefits of increased productivity. We've already massively increased productivity with computerization, but during that same period instead of more leisure time, society has actually demanded MORE working hours (by putting more women to work)

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#127
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not when you realize that the economy is largely a huge ponzi scheme which requires a constant stream of new participants to prop up asset prices and generate economic activity. The care issue is real, not so much because we need people to look after them, which potentially could be automated, but rather the new generations are the ones paying into the system and funding their pensions.

The longer you let a ponzi scheme run the worse it gets. So it seems better to take some pain now instead of more pain later.

Unfortunately that would require political action that would never be accepted by society until they're hurting enough that it's too late. No politician is going to win an election by promising to make your life worse now for the future generations.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#128
post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

Pushed from the top? What on earth? Guy, there's no conspiracy required to explain urbanization. It is a simple matter of better agriculture tech. We just don't need much labor on farms anymore.

Please tell that to Jeffry Epstein, who impregnated a dozen children a day because of pedo and gay blackmail on people we trusted with the nation's leadership. Or the drug smuggling criminals who get multiple families.

Just follow orders, end up burning alive in the WTC or kidnapped in some horrible foreign job site or just being forgotten.

Covid: Young people who should be starting families are sidelined. China: Amoral lawyers want to be millionaires and take bribes. Your boss at the very top wants to kill Americans. Immigration: Want to give boss feedback? Great. Hey, train your new H1B replacement.

A complete hostility to anyone else. Nothing except selfishness. Earning just one dollar is a 100% cut throat affair. You really don't know it until you get hit hard, how little people care about you if you die as long as they make a few bucks. Make something, prepare to have every little dirty trick thrown at you until you die in prison.

People became leaders decades ago because they were just willing to do anything and debase themselves. We used to be your neighbors and family. You turned your backs on us. Won with every dirty trick you can think of. Now we're just a waste byproduct or something to churn for money. Not urbanization. You. The hell you made. I hope the mob kills you all through many bumps and bruises and broken bones. True nature will go for your throat. As you die in your sewer, you will see the paradise of my world, your sunset, because I stayed true.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#129
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…

Old calculus: "I need to have lots of children so they support me in my old age. No matter the cost." New calculus: "Between retirement accounts and welfare, society will support me in my old age. Children are really, really expensive." It's economics, plain and simple. Of course there's a "top" and the "top" does dictate the structure. If you doubt that, ask: what percent of your income do you pay in taxes, and what…

This, but also people used to see having a family as being the meaning of their lives. In the modern world, the alternative meaning of life invention is the Career™. This alone, that people have been influenced to believe a career is a replacement for having a family, is highly suspect of "top-down" influence. We don't even have the perspective of how ridiculous career driven culture is.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#130
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also education and contraception that have a role. I’d also add the high cost of living too as well as rising inequality.

Those are excuses that people make up to soothe their egos. The real reason people do not have children is selfishness. They think that the financial and time cost will deprive them of other material joys. It’s as sad as it is misguided.

I would’t say that is the main reason but that is one of them, sure. Also the society has become a lot more isolated. I sometimes look at a modern societies like Japan or South Korea and am wondering whether the western world will follow suit.
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