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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#91

Post by yongjik »

Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

America has had tons of immigrants working 24/7 to run a restaurant, a laundry shop, or a drugstore, while putting their kids through school. Most of them weren't forced to come to America or choose such a job: they did it because even maintaining a 24-hour convenience store is less grueling work than planting rice, and they're rejecting their children's "help" because they want their children to study and have even better, more comfortable jobs.

Pre-modern agricultural societies had huge families because there was so much work that you could always use an extra pair of hands. (Also, many of them died off anyway so you had to factor that in.) You are looking at the past with a seriously rose-tinted lens.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#92

Post by HenryKissinger »

ve55 wrote: post #58

Sad the amount of technological progress we may be missing out on by this, I rarely see it discussed but I think fertility is important in order for society to be able to maintain a steady course of improvement in science and technology.

The number of individuals with the potential of Albert Einstein (to pick a stereotype) in a given country is not correlated to the total number of people. Standard of living, a stable childhood environment, quality of schooling, modern medicine, economic opportunity, sanitation, are more important to nurture future innovators. A kid working the fields in Angola will probably never reach his full potential, but little Johnny from suburban America probably will.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#93

Post by Guy2020 »

inopinatus wrote: post #84
tclancy wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…

OP is clearly referencing the secret cabal who dictate the course of humanity with orbital mind control lasers. What they haven't realised yet is that this forum is exactly where the aforementioned illumina ATZ# NO CARRIER

Everyone has the same influence over society, right? There's no inequality that would give certain people more influence over things?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#94

Post by snowwrestler »

young_unixer wrote: post #30
_bxg1 wrote: post #10

There's a short-term problem of society becoming "top-heavy", where there might not be enough young to pay for the continued care of the old. But in the long run this seems like a win. I wonder what impact it might have on climate projections.

A big part of that problem is that most nations have a pension system where the active work force pays for the pension of the elder instead of each person paying their own pension by saving/investing troughout their lives.

Government and private retirement strategies both rely on cash transfers from younger workers. In a government system, the younger workers pay taxes which are transferred to retirees. In a private retirement system, younger workers are the purchasing counterparties as retirees sell off their investments.

Retirement financing in general relies on future economic growth for future cashflow. That said, you don't necessarily need a growing population to make it work. If the population declines 15%, but the average worker's productivity goes up 20% during that time, you still come out ahead.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#95

Post by rsync »

Interesting for a variety of reasons but my immediate takeaway is that the world is in a long term deflationary economic trend and any attempts to push against that, however successful in the short run, will fail.

Cash will be king and assets will be sold for pennies on the dollar, so to speak - provided you can remain solvent in the whipsaws and gyrations of the desperate attempts to stave off deflation at any cost.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#96

Post by hiccuphippo »

young_unixer wrote: post #30
_bxg1 wrote: post #10

There's a short-term problem of society becoming "top-heavy", where there might not be enough young to pay for the continued care of the old. But in the long run this seems like a win. I wonder what impact it might have on climate projections.

A big part of that problem is that most nations have a pension system where the active work force pays for the pension of the elder instead of each person paying their own pension by saving/investing troughout their lives.

But then our lifespans are getting longer and longer so we might be able/doomed to work forever and not need that pension.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#97

Post by efficax »

_bxg1 wrote: post #10

There's a short-term problem of society becoming "top-heavy", where there might not be enough young to pay for the continued care of the old. But in the long run this seems like a win. I wonder what impact it might have on climate projections.

what does it mean to "pay for" the continued care of the old.

Unless we have such a population implosion that we can no longer produce food or run our factories, then we don't need to "pay for" anything. We can simply decide to distribute the resources necessary for the care of the old.

The real cost of everything is the labor required to produce it, not the dollar value it receives in a market place. I don't think anyone is talking about a complete collapse in the labor pool.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#98

Post by dragonwriter »

empath75 wrote: post #27

Why is immigration not the answer to this? Eventually developed countries are going to have to get over their bigotry and open the borders.

> Why is immigration not the answer to this?

Because of the word “global”.

Unless you are talking about interplanetary immigration.

OTOH, the real solution is “this projection of current trends into the future is likely to be just as wrong as when people were projecting the rapid rate of global population growth in the 1960s to continue without bound, or even further accelerate”.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#99

Post by grugagag »

Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

I have a 2 year old. It was an accident as both I and my wife didn’t want children or weren’t ready. I’ve got to say that it has become the best part of my life and yes it is not easy when you’re looking in from the outside but becoming a parent changes you, you become more resilient, objevtives in life change, etc So, no, children are not a burden unless you make it to be.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#100

Post by stirlo »

hammock wrote: post #68
tclancy wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started to read this waiting for the punchline to a Dad joke. Kids can still mow lawns for sure. >This stuff is being pushed from the top. Is this some kind of Sparta thing? Like you all go up to the top of the mountain and someone pushes Dad off? Because if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. >It…

> if you actually mean there's a "top" that is dictating human sexuality I am deeply, deeply interested in seeing a schematic diagram for how that system works. Access to birth control and abortion, social services and welfare, trends in divorce and family court ... All of these things are top-down forces that create a tapestry heavily influencing human sexuality and the choices men and women make. One only has to lo…

> One only has to look at how different things were 50 or so (or less) years ago before these things were as widespread.

Was the average person happier under these circumstances? That's what should be optimized not keeping things the same for the sake of it

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