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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#41

Post by spaetzleesser »

nutjob2 wrote: post #24
hprotagonist wrote: post #5

Elder care is a pressing issue, but in general isn't this good news?

Not when you realize that the economy is largely a huge ponzi scheme which requires a constant stream of new participants to prop up asset prices and generate economic activity. The care issue is real, not so much because we need people to look after them, which potentially could be automated, but rather the new generations are the ones paying into the system and funding their pensions.

The longer you let a ponzi scheme run the worse it gets. So it seems better to take some pain now instead of more pain later.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#42

Post by epx »

young_unixer wrote: post #30
_bxg1 wrote: post #10

There's a short-term problem of society becoming "top-heavy", where there might not be enough young to pay for the continued care of the old. But in the long run this seems like a win. I wonder what impact it might have on climate projections.

A big part of that problem is that most nations have a pension system where the active work force pays for the pension of the elder instead of each person paying their own pension by saving/investing troughout their lives.

The boomers will have to accept a haircut. This is a matter of time.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#43

Post by gscott »

DoofusOfDeath wrote: post #9
unstatusthequo wrote: post #3

This may be unpopular, but I already feel the earth is well beyond it’s ideal human population capacity. We are straining resources because of our bad policies and practices and politics.

It may be unpopular, but I agree 100%. I don't want people to suffer unnecessarily. But the more people we add to the planet, the more we exacerbate problems with food, water, Co2 emissions, etc. In the end, something will curtail human population growth. I really hope it's voluntary and painless.

Most of the United States is unpopulated. We can easily double our population and be fine.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#44

Post by balladeer »

Guy2020 wrote: post #22
unstatusthequo wrote: post #3

This may be unpopular, but I already feel the earth is well beyond it’s ideal human population capacity. We are straining resources because of our bad policies and practices and politics.

In my view, you are echoing propaganda. Nothing says humans have to live in cities and burn massive amounts of fossil fuels. The way we are living may be stressful to the planet, but humans aren't the problem... it's the way we are forced to live that is.

Yes. Pretty much everyone I talk to would happily go to their small town, or village close to their homes and families but they don't. They say they can't.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#45

Post by paulcole »

miles wrote: post #18
unstatusthequo wrote: post #3

This may be unpopular, but I already feel the earth is well beyond it’s ideal human population capacity. We are straining resources because of our bad policies and practices and politics.

> I already feel the earth is well beyond it’s ideal human population capacity. You might enjoy Peter Russell's "The Global Brain" for another perspective on human population growth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1sr9x263LM . > We are straining resources because of our bad policies and practices and politics. It certainly seems that our carrying capacity could be much greater with sounder policies, practices, and…

100% agree. If there’s one thing you can count on to come through in a tricky situation, it’s level heads and politicians.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#46

Post by all_blue_chucks »

Guy2020 wrote: post #16

Children have become more of a burden than a benefit in many ways. We once had much use for our children. When people were more independent and everyone pretty much had a small business, children were seen as the life blood of that business. Now, we are pretty much expected to fill a role at some large corporation -- which Japan is the greatest example of. Also, the family centered culture has changed to a work cente…

Pushed from the top? What on earth? Guy, there's no conspiracy required to explain urbanization. It is a simple matter of better agriculture tech. We just don't need much labor on farms anymore.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#47

Post by aahhahahaaa »

unstatusthequo wrote: post #3

This may be unpopular, but I already feel the earth is well beyond it’s ideal human population capacity. We are straining resources because of our bad policies and practices and politics.

It's obviously very difficult to predict, but there's also some expert speculation that affluence will spread widely enough to slow the birth rate down to be close to the death rate and we'll reach some sort of equilibrium.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#48

Post by Keyframe »

I remember we learned in elementary school, about three hundred years ago when I was a kid, a correlation (or inverse of) between economic prosperity and demographic picture. It was so obvious it even had named phases for it (that we had to learn, which I forgot).. but from vague memory it was along the lines of expansion (when country is poor), stagnation (when well-fed) and immigration (when rich).

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#50

Post by qppo »

I feel like bemoaning sub-replacement rate fertility doesn't take into account the exponential growth of automation in post-industrialized economies and how little labor actually needs to be done to maintain the same productivity, let alone how less labor increases productivity in an organization (no numbers there - just an observation from my own work).

Extrapolated to society I'm not really afraid of an aging population of pensioners like Japan several years ago, because 10 years from now we'll be moving further from human controlled economic activity. But who knows if that is going to be a good thing.

I guess what I'm saying is we're going to hit Star Trek or the Matrix

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