361–370 of 632 posts
If you actually believe that Tesla will fail to deliver full self-driving in the coming years, I have two questions. 1. have you watched this entire technical presentation made by Andrej Karpathy, Senior Director of AI at Tesla? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx7BXih7zx8 2. if you understand what you've seen in that video, why do you think Tesla will fail?
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Have you driven a modern ICE? I rented a new Honda Accord this weekend. Besides the Model 3's crazy acceleration, and automatic lane changing, I think the Accord matches or exceeds a Model 3 in every single way, and it's roughly half the price. This isn't to say Teslas aren't impressive, but I do think they're overhyped.
Have you driven a Model 3? It's like night and day. Everything that burns gasoline feels like a dinosaur to me now after driving a Model 3. I can't stand renting cars, they are all complete junk compared to my Model 3 at home. I said this to a Hertz in Denver, they gave me their best Jaguar. It stinks, it is slow, it is pathetic. It's basically game over for ICE, and they know it. They have 10-15 years maybe but at t…
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But autopilot in a plane doesn't require the pilot to take over in a split second. Keeping you level, at the right speed, in the right direction, etc. is enough to keep the plane safe. Pilots have tens of seconds to reorient themselves to avert any disaster. In contrast, Telsa "autopilot" requires constant vigilance since you might have to take over without any warning.
> In contrast, Telsa "autopilot" requires constant vigilance since you might have to take over without any warning. Neither version eliminates the need for the pilot/ driver to cease situational control. Pilots have absolutely flown into the side of mountains while on autopilot. (Ironically called "Controlled flight into terrain"). The big difference between the two is in an aircraft there is less to collide with whe…
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Didn't he claim the same last year and the year before?
Really? You're guna bet against Elon Musk? You really think that's wise? XD
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Tesla's not only calling their stuff "autopilot", but also "full self driving", which is probably the wrong way to describe their current implementation. Its a bit annoying to see people so fixated on the word "autopilot" when its clear that "full self driving" is complete and utter vaporware, a $5000 lie sold by the company.
A lie requires the company to believe it is not true and yet say it anyway. Elon is pretty delusional (at least that he often has crazily optimistic ideas about what is and is not feasible); he’s also paranoid about AI becoming self-aware and destroying humanity; it’s reasonable to suggest that Elon believed his own projection, here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V_V7ZpkJIM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8377461/Shoc...
Etc. etc.
This sort of stuff has been going on since 2016, or maybe earlier. I've at least been aware of it for the last 4 years.
Mr. Musk is aware of these repeated failures, and yet continues to push "full self driving" as a name to the car features.
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Tesla’s Chief Executive Elon Musk said this month the electric car manufacturer was close to making its cars capable of automated driving without any need for driver input, so-called Level 5 autonomy. Yeah, right. Tesla has only Level 2 self-driving. They've never demonstrated Level 3 outside a video of a demo in Palo Alto. They wouldn't even let the press take a ride. Google/Waymo has hundreds of self-driving vehicl…
wait... you can seriously get a fully autonomous taxi in Phoenix right now with no safety driver? That is wild! has anyone documented this on video?
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What exactly did his companies deliver, that experts said was impossible, in the technological sense I mean? Reusable rockets, deemed possible but not economic due to the low number of launches. SpaceX delivered amazing stuff, so, but nothing impossible. EVs were a thing already 100 years ago, so technically totally feasible, as is mass production. And the battery tech is to large part Panasonic. Still impressive wha…
> What exactly did his companies deliver, that experts said was impossible, in the technological sense I mean? Landing the Falcon 9 booster on a droneship. As a physicist, I never believed it was impossible (the bar for “impossible” is rather high in physics) and yet an expert in the field told me it was!
I think / hope that Elon Musk wanted everyone to be crystal clear about the end goal from the outset. Go on public record about the ambition in a way that will push himself and his employees. Use language to drive vision and outcome.
But misrepresenting the reality as if it already was reflecting the vision, when in fact it is not, bears in my opinion many signs of fraud.
For example, consider someone who has a "vision of wine" and decides to sell bottles of grape juice which are supposed to represent that vision. They can have honest intention to fill those bottles with wine at some point in time. But as far as they in fact sell the grape juice, I think that it is reasonable to require them to clearly present it as such.
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Google has a much larger and better funded team that still doesnt seem close. Karpathy is no doubt smart but google has like 10 karpathys for every one TESLA has.
Did you watch the video? Waymo is stuck using lidar, and the video explains why that's a dead-end. (Want to keep in touch about this bet? I'm maxharris9 on twitter.)
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I think I prefer not to look at stock / market cap too much in this climate of excess money sloshing around. It's just a popularity vote. What I really have to give Tesla is: they have cars; they actually make them in factories they built; they built their own battery factory; they also invest into software side of things. And lastly they invested a ton into the charger network, which initially helped them get off th…
Car companies have always been build engines and assembly of body organizations, buying other parts from whoever. Each is a bit different but nothing new about not owning all the technology. If it isn't a competitive advantage why bother?
Couple things that come to mind:
1) SV software culture, kinda coming from Musk. This helps with battery pack management (important), electric motor control (important) and fancy car UI (less important perhaps but a "cool" factor. I think I count autopilot here)
2) Skin in the game. This is a bit meta, but some of the things they've done take some real guts and leadership. In their case it was do-or-die. Things like charger network, or getting the cars sold without dealerships, or building their own battery factory, or maybe the very idea of a production EV. I don't see this with incumbents - even if they have EV lines they could probably shut them down without much impact. Maybe this will not last long, I guess VW promised to switch to all electric new platforms? At that point they are kinda committed.