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California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

nytimes.com

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Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#41

Post by standardUser »

jhowell wrote: post #27
standardUser wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Though it has not been conclusively proven, literally all signs point to meanginful immunity and virtually no signs point to the opposite. Dozens of vaccines are being developed on this assumption, and there have been zero confirmed instances of reinfection of a fully recovered individual.

> all signs point to meanginful immunity and virtually no signs point to the opposite. Here is a story from CNN via the Mercury News about 3 teachers sharing a classroom. Anecdotal, but makes me think these are signs of a lack of immunity. A positive, negative, positive test. > A month after they caught the virus that killed their colleague, Martinez and Skillings are still struggling. > Martinez says fatigue is ling…

Right, when millions and millions of people become infected with an illness there will be a wide range of edge cases. But if reinfection within 6 months was anything other than exceptionally rare it would be obvious by now.

Now if you had a peer reviewed study to link instead of media reports, I would be very interested.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#42

Post by Agustus »

CerealFounder wrote: post #28

I dont understand for the life of me why the state cant get tough on masks and distancing with the rule of law. All they do is put out suggestions and guildelines. Until they flex the guidlines with some muscle it's just theatre

Enforcement is the state forcing its will on you eliminating the individual’s ability to evaluate risk. Eric Garner is dead because of government rule flexing you suggest.

The government should buy ads showing the efficacy of face masks and use the ad council to pretty it up.

If you have politically connected individuals flouting the rules, people will salami tactics their way to not wearing the masks.

*edit: thanks for the word correction suggestion.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#43

Post by heimatau »

I'm very grateful for the rollbacks.

I was against Newsome but how he's handled this pandemic is better than both Dems/Repubs. I understand he felt he was too 'heavy-handed' in the beginning but it was the correct decision. But...he's trying to appease the 'center' by allowing counties freedom to make decisions. Regardless, he's doing the right thing and I'm glad I moved here a few years ago.

In conclusion, I hope Gavin tries to get a real deal on masks (buy them for Californians and give them away at steep discounts) and mandate masks THROUGH THE LEGISLATURE or fear of automatic fines. Japan is doing great and they work indoors but the key is they all wear masks. We need a robust mask policy, asap.

P.S. Since I can't reply to the [dead] comment below, let me do that here. The reason why Gavin should do it through the Legislature is for permission and buy-in. It only needs to be temporary but in the same action, one could reduce the price of compliance by leveraging the size of the California govt, heck he could even get businesses involved too, make a really large purchase. This isn't about fines, it's about preventing the spread of covid19.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#44

Post by anarazel »

nostromo wrote: post #24
woeirua wrote: post #9

The only question now is, which state will win the race to be the first to reinstitute stay-at-home orders?

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were neve…

> Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. > We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet.

Your graph shows an increase over the last week. A rolling average shows that more clearly:

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths

If you look at the currently worse off regions / states you can see the rise in deaths more clearly. E.g. in the south and west there's a pretty clearly recognizable rise:

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/regional-deaths

Here's a link to per-region stats: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/all-metrics-per-state and some example states with pretty clear trends:

AZ: https://public.tableau.com/shared/6GDK353C7?:display_count=y...

CA: https://public.tableau.com/shared/GKK6SFGNR?:display_count=y...

FL: https://public.tableau.com/shared/P2SSPXC3Y?:display_count=y...

TX: https://public.tableau.com/shared/M8KY224BR?:display_count=y...

> deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down.

Deaths are important, obviously, but they are also a severely lagging indicator.

Edit: Formatting

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#45

Post by standardUser »

TomVDB wrote: post #21
standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

> ... but any amount of immunity in a population makes transmission of the virus more difficult. That may be true from a pure logical/mathematical point of view, but that doesn't mean it makes a practical difference. Herd immunity is something that happens when a very large percentage of the population is immune. For mumps (which has a very high R0), you need about 92% immunity level for it to be effective. For COVID…

I did not suggest herd immunity has occurred. You seem to be confusing the idea of herd immunity with the similar idea that any immunity in a population will reduce the transmission rate by some amount.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#46

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

mjmahone17 wrote: post #23
standardUser wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the numbers throughout the Northeast, you see a remarkable consistency. New cases are at a trickle, despite lots of reopening (more in some places than others) and weeks of mass protests throughout the larger cities. I am in NYC and mask compliance here is... OK. But people are generally going out a lot, eating out a lot, shopping, etc, with very little concern. Weeks keep passing without even a tiny u…

If you haven’t left NYC, it may also be true that our perception of “going out a lot” is about equivalent to much of the nation’s “lockdown” perception. In other parts of the country, like Florida and Arizona, it doesn’t seem like the transmission rate ever really went below 1: it just hovered around 1. So now NY, Boston, etc are “opening up” to a roughly equivalent position that those states were in when they were u…

The rest of New York has been in phase three with indoor dining for a few weeks now.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#47

Post by azinman2 »

throw0101a wrote: post #39
nostromo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were neve…

> deaths (the more important number) Is it though? > For every one person who dies: > 19 more require hospitalization. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. > 10 will have permanent lung damage. > 3 will have strokes. > 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. > 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive functio…

This is the point that so many people miss.

We’re also 1/3 of the way to WWII deaths in the US.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#48

Post by QuercusMax »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #32
AlexandrB wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, that's the case in Ontario. Mask wearing is also now mandatory indoors. I guess the question is why did California rush to re-open fully?

The governor's been clear that's part of the intended strategy; counties will be allowed to rush forwards as long as infection rates remain low, and then pull back if infections rise. He's consistently warned that some rollbacks should be expected.

The problem with this strategy is that it's been incredibly confusing; I'm getting whiplash from all the back-and-forth. The news reporting has been bad, as well, not clearly distinguishing between statewide and per-county (or for counties on the "watch list", which changes daily).

My friends who are in the service industry have to figure out from day-to-day what they're going to be doing. This is just a giant mess.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#49

Post by hvac »

nostromo wrote: post #24
woeirua wrote: post #9

The only question now is, which state will win the race to be the first to reinstitute stay-at-home orders?

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were neve…

The linked NYT article says that deaths are up 28% over the last two weeks.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#50

Post by bachmeier »

nostromo wrote: post #24
woeirua wrote: post #9

The only question now is, which state will win the race to be the first to reinstitute stay-at-home orders?

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were neve…

> We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet.

It hasn't?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-deaths-tick-up-i...

You're mixing those states together with New York, for which cases and deaths are strongly positively correlated:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronav...

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