Anyone with a theory about the current markets: Put your prediction here for what you think will be the state of the market or specific stocks/indices as of, say, Aug 13 2020(Q3 earnings reports will be generally issued by then).
The stock market and economy have parted ways
301–310 of 542 posts
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#302Earlier quoted context omitted.
It means a massive crash is coming. Money printer go brrr is funny, but it's not capable of propping up the entire market forever. There's a flight to safety that happens when countries really start printing.
> There's a flight to safety that happens when countries really start printing This is normally great for the dollar. Where else are you going to go? Switzerland has had a "negative rates, please go away" policy for a while now.
In a stock market flight to safety you go to the greenback because the USG is the worlds primary reserve currency and is backed up by the power of the American financial system. I'm not talking about a stock market flight to safety. I'm talking about a hypothetical scenario that I do not think will come to pass: They keep running the printers even after the real economy is breaking down. They won't do it. They will let the stock market retract before they let inflation get over five percent because they know the power that they have keeping the USD as the world's primary reserve currency, even if it means the stock market is going to tank.
That is my argument: The stock market is going to tank and these meme stonks only go up are going to look chilling in retrospect.
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#303Earlier quoted context omitted.
>I believe we are about 9months away from the greatest financial disaster of our times Why 9 months? What would precipitate that?
By nine months it will be a debt crisis which has become a liquidity crisis which then forces a fire-sale of assets.
But most of the debt has been around for years at this point. What in the next 9 months changes that?
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#304Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#305There are some very strange happenings goings on with a small number of stocks. AMZN, TSLA, AAPL and a few others have seen stratospheric gains in the past few months with especially Tesla with no clear reason why. Not trying to knock tesla but there is something that I have never seen happening and given store closures, spiking covid cases and virus antibodies that seem to last months and in some cases weeks these a…
Your speculation doesn't appear unfounded to me, but I think you're painting the picture with too broad of a brush here. AMZN, TSLA, and AAPL (just to limit the discussion to the ones you explicitly mentioned) are tech stocks, but have fundamentally different business dynamics that I would expect to be affected quite differently by the effects of COVID.
* AMZN: huge swaths of new and existing are customers moving their shopping online. They stand to profit from this in the short and medium term at least, and I would wager that the change in shopping habits would result in a noticeable number of long term changes sticking.
* TSLA: a lot to unwind here, but it's a combination of their recent delivery numbers and large amounts of retail investor speculation. While I believe the stock was undervalued before, quarterly delivery numbers wouldn't fully explain such large jumps.
* AAPL: I'm at a loss on this one, but I also don't know a lot about it. With many folks not able to spend their discretionary income on bars/restaurants/travel/etc. I can see more of this money being channeled to iPhones.
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#306Earlier quoted context omitted.
>...there is a ton of real money in there too. There is zero money "in there" market cap for a non-backed currency is meaningless value. No amount of bitcoin buying will ever put money "into" anything. The money goes to whoever sells its just a trade.
nobody should ever buy a bitcoin under any circumstance for exactly this reason
Nothing wrong with speculating with money you don't need.
Disclaimer: I own cryptos however no Bitcoins.
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't it the same when people on Hacker News start telling you to exit the market.
HN is very bearish in general. Aka permabears. If you sold on sentiment here you would always be selling, or just not buying.
Yep, it's overall quite pessimistic from my perspective. Despite them, I've been buying diversified indexes all throughout this year. The gains have been absolutely beautiful. :)
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#308There are some very strange happenings goings on with a small number of stocks. AMZN, TSLA, AAPL and a few others have seen stratospheric gains in the past few months with especially Tesla with no clear reason why. Not trying to knock tesla but there is something that I have never seen happening and given store closures, spiking covid cases and virus antibodies that seem to last months and in some cases weeks these a…
Tesla has always been a popular stock with speculators, hype followers, and Robin Hood users. It had nutty valuations before the pandemic. On top of that, the Model Y is now available and crossovers are by far the best-selling type of vehicle in the United States right now.
(It was probably a mistake to come out with the Model 3, a sedan, before the Model Y, a crossover).
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#309Earlier quoted context omitted.
The USD is the reserve currency of the world. The US maintains this status quo through a combination of soft and hard power: stir the pot a little and ambassadors tut-tut. Stir a bit more and your politicians have their US bank accounts frozen. Stir too hard and the USS Gerald R. Ford sails up off your coast and asks you to reconsider democracy. I'd be surprised if this status quo is challenged by another country for…
Doesn't work against China and Russia ... doesn't really work even against Venezuela.
Oh, don't get me wrong: long term the petroeuro is coming – unless it gets upstaged by the petroyuan. With luck it doesn't come with too many bodies.
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#310I'm a bit surprised nobody has called out the obvious.
The market did correct for these fears and in doing so, dramatically overcorrected. Initial estimates were quite worse than the current situation, and unemployment is terrible - but has been recovering at a rate significantly greater than anyone expected.
That doesn't mean we won't see declines or corrections in the near market, as it's possible the market is too optimistic now - but short of a crystal ball, nobody can actually predict that.